Risks Assoicated with Investing in Bonds

1. Inerest Rate Risk

I = coupon rate: Par Bond
I > coupon rate: Discount Bond
I < coupon rate: Premium Bond

Bond Characteristics and Interest Rate Risk
------------------------------------------------------
Maturity up Interest Rate up Duration up
Coupon up Interest Rate down Duration down
Add a Call Interest Rate down Duration down
Add a put Interest Rate down Duration down
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Callable bond value = value of option-free bond - value of embedded call option
* callable bond 一边要比 option-free bond 便宜，因为投资者被转嫁了再投资风险

Duration = - percentage change in bond price / yield change in percent
*利率对债券价格敏感分析的指数，与弹性相似，但是为负相关。

duration不能做投资组合的风险分析是因为数值只允许价格利率曲线平移，而忽略了曲线变形的情况，投资组合的曲线是很多金融产品的混合物，曲线不可能和单个债券平行。

callable and prepayment bond的增加了投资者的reinvestment的风险，通俗点讲就是发行者或者经纪人为了讲自己的利率风险转嫁给投资者成为再投资的风险，要约比无期权债券价格要低，从而补偿给投资者。

2. Yield Curve Risk

3. Call and Prepayment Risk

4. Reinvestment Risk

Security has more reinvestment risk when:
The coupon is higher so tha tinterest cash flows are higher.
It has a call feature (本金都提前落到手里了).
It is an amortizing security (本金慢慢地落到手里).
It contains a prepayment option (提前支付本金)

5. Credit Risk:
Default Risk
Credit Spread Risk
Downgrade Risk

6. Liquity Risk
流动性一般用买卖价差来衡量

7. Exchange-rate Risk
外币贬值，投资于外国债券的投资者遭受损失，外币升值则投资者获得收益。

8. Inflation Risk
Inflaction risk = purchasing power risk
现金流固定，货币购买力下降造成投资者的损失。

9. Volatityl Risk
callable bond value = value of option-free bond - value of call option
价格波动性增加，可回购债券的价值下降

put option value = value of option-free bond + value of put option
价格波动增加，可售出债券的价值增加

10. Event Risk
Disasters
Corporate Restructuring
Regulatory issues

11. Sovereign Risk
政府对偿还债务的态度和政策发生变化的风险。债券师傅偿付不仅取决于借款者是否有能力还款，还取决于其是否愿意还款。

Financial Statement Analysis: Applications

Trends in a company's financial ratios and differences between its financial ratios and those of its competitors or industry average ratios can reveal important aspects of its business strategy.

Cash flow forecast:
1. 宏观预测GDP增长值；
2. 相关性分析GDP增长与本公司销售额之间的联系；
3. 估计公司所占的市场份额，乘以整个行业销售额即为预测公司销售额；
4. 在简单的预测模型中，可用一些历史平均或这趋势调整利润率（gross margin, operating margin, and net income）来预测净利润；
5. 在复杂的预测模型中，损益表和资产负债表的每一项目都可以单独估计，分别假设其增长与销售收入增长的关系；
6. 多期间预测，分析师通常简单地假设销售额以一定比例次序增长；
7. 进行现金预测是，分析师必须假设未来现金流的来源与用途，尤其是营运资本，购入新资产的资本花费，举债或偿债，以及发行或回购股票；
8. 预测的基本假设是非现金营运资本占销售额的百分比不变；
9. 初步模型可以预示公司未来的现金需求，这些需求可以在未来通过计划必要的贷款来满足。

现金流预测具体操作注意：
sales*(1 + ?%);
cost of goods sold * ?% of sale
operating expenses * ?% of sale
noncash working capital * ?% of sale
investment in fixed capital * ?% of sale

Credit rating formula can be seperated 4 general categories:
1. Scale and diversification
2. Operatinal efficiency
3. Margin efficiency
4. Leverage

Potentially attractive equity investments can be identifed by screening a universe of stocks using minimum or maximum value of one or more ratios. Which (and how many) ratios to use, what minimum or maximum value to use, and how much importance to give each ratio all present challenges to hte analyst.

When companies use different accounting methods or estimates relating to ares such as invenory accouting, depreciation, capitalization, and off-balance-sheet financing, analysts must adjust the financial statemetns for comparability.

International Standards Convergence

The equity method is used for business combinations when the investor can significantl influence the investee (between 20% and 50% ownership interest). The consolidation method is used when the investor can control the investee (greater than 50% ownership interest). In the case of joint control, proportionate consolidation is preferred under IFRS, but the equity method is required under U.S. GAAP.

Inventory is reported on the balance sheet at the lower of cost or net relizable value under IFRS and at the lower of cost or market under U.S. GAAP. A recovery of value subsequent to a writtedown can be recognized under IFRS but not under U.S. GAAP.

Under IFRS, the value of property and equipment and identifiable intangible assets can be revalued upward, but under U.S. GAAP, they cannot.

When the firm cannot reliably estimate the outcome of a project, it recognizes costs as revenue to the extent they are likely recoverable, but firms reporting under U.S. GAAP must use the completed contract method.

THe LIFO inventory cost method is permitted by U.S. GAAP but is prohibited under IFRS.

IFRS requires the depreciation method to allocate an asset's cost systematically over its useful life and reflect the pattern of asset consumption.

IFRS does not permit firms to treat items as "extraordinary items" on the income statement as they can under U.S. GAAP.

Under U.S. GAAP, individual paid are financing activities while interest paid or received and dividends received are operating activities. Under IFRS, dividends and interest paid can be reported as either operating activities or financing activities. Interest received and dividends received can be reported as either operating activities or financing activites. Interest received and dividends received can be reported as either operating activities or investing activities.

To compare financila statement ratios of firms reproting under U.S. GAAP and IFRS, an analyst must adjust the data for one of the firms to make the financial statements comparable.

Financial Reporting Quality: Red Flages and Accounting Warning Signs

Management may be motivated to overstate net income to:

1. Meet earnings expectations.
2. Remain in compliance with lending covenants.
3. Receive higher incentive compensation.

Management ma be motivated to underreport earnings to:

1. Obtain trade relief in the form of quotas or protective tariffs.
2. Negotiate favorable terms from creditors.
3. Negotiate favorable labor union contracts.

Low quality earnings are th result of:

1. Selecting acceptable accounting principles that misrepresent the economics of a transaction.
2. Structuring transactions to achieve a desired outcome.
3. Using aggressive or unrealistic estimates and assumptions.
4. Exploiting the intent of an accounting principle.

Accounting Shenanigans on the Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow Manipulation:

1. Stretching Accounts Payable
应付账款延展期实质是通过延长付款周期要求供应商提供融资。发现方法是计算各个周期如/年，/嫉妒，/月的应付账款周期进行比较，看是否周期过度延长，其公式如下：

days' sales in accounts payable = (accounts payable / COGS) * 365

2. Financing Accounts Payable
融资型应付账款，通俗解释为公司委托第三方金融机构在公司和供应商确定的付款周期下，由第三方金融机构对供应商周期性结算，而公司在更迟一些天数支付应付账款本金和利息于第三方金融机构。由于第三方金融机构是一短期借款方式处理，这样导致企业的经营性现金流减少而融资性现金流增大。其实质和应付账款延展期类似，唯一不同的是第三方介入。

3. Securitizing Accounts Receivable
应收账款证券化，即将应收账款以证券的形式抵押或者出售给special purpose entity (SPE) 从而可以加速现金流的变现。对卖出应收账款所得到的款项应计入经营性现金流而不是融资性现金流，若计入CFO中的主营业务收入的话，则处理非常激进；若计入抵消营业支出的话，则次激进，最保守的方法是计入其他非营业收入。

Repurchasing Stock to offset Dilution
对冲摊销的回购股票机制。企业股价上升，持有低廉期权者倾向行使期权，企业被强迫发行更多股票造成EPS被稀释，为了避免，企业通过回购股票来操作现金流。对于对避免稀释股票无关的回购股票，应该分出融资性现金流，计入经营性现金流确认现金流出。

Long - Lived Assets 长期资产

Capitalized Interest

Inventories

COGS = Beginning Inventory + Purcahase - Ending Inventory

Product Costs:

Purchase cost.
Conversion costs.
Allocation of fixed production overhead based on normal capacity levels.
Other costs necessary to bring the inventory to its present location and condition.

Period costs:

Unallocated portion of fixed production overhead.
Abnormal waste of materials, labor, or overhead.
Storage costs (unless required as part of the production process).
Administrative overhead.
Selling costs

存货在U.S. GAAP 和 IFRS 的规定下是不同的。总体来讲是孰低法计价。Under U.S. GAAP, original cost 和 replacement cost 比高低；under IFRS, net realizable value 和 original cost 比高低。GAAP下不能 write-up。

Inventory method:

Specific identification method
FIFO method
LIFO method
Weighted average cost method

FIFO 比较接近更新成本，LIFO则不行。

inventory turnover = COGS / average inventory 越高越好

number of days of inventory = 365 / inventory turnover 越低越好

LIFO results in:

higer COGS
lower taxes
lower net income (EBT and EAT)
lower inventory balance
lower working capital (CA - CL)
higher cash flows (less taxes paid out)

FIFO results in:
lower taxes
higherr taxes
higher net income (EBT and EAT)
higher inventory balance
higher working capital (CA - CL)
lower cash flows (more tax paid out)

Profitability: LIFOLiquidity: LIFO>FIFO
Activity (current ratio): LIFOSolvency (D/A & D/E): LIFO>FIFO

FIFO inventory = LIFO inventory + LIFO reserve
FIFO COGS = LIFO COGS - (ending LIFO reserve - beginning LIFO reserve)

LIFO liquidation (后进先出法清算) occurs when a LIFO firm's inventory quantities are declining. In this situation, the older, lower costs are now included in COGS. The result is higher profit margins and higher income taxes.

*LIFO 最敏感，涨价和降价对他的影响都比FIFO剧烈。

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow Statement ptobifrd ingotmsyion beyond that available from the income statement, which is based on accrual, rather than cash, accounting. The cash flow statement provides:

1. Information about a company's cash receipts and cash payments during an accounting period.
2. Information about a company's opearing, investing, and financing activities.
3. An understanding of the impact of accrual accounting events on cash flows.

An analyst can use the statement of cash flows to determine whether:

1. Regular operations generate enough cash to sustain the business.
2. Enough cash is generated to pay off existing debts as they mature.
3. The firm is likely to need additional financing
4. Unexpected obligations can be met.
5. The firm can take advantage of new business opportunities as they raise.

Items on the cash flow statement come from 2 source
1. Income statement items.
2. Changes in balance sheet accounts.

Cash Flow Classification:

Operating cash flow + investing cash flow + financing cash flow = change in cash balance + beginning cash balance = ending cash flow

Beginning inventory balance + inventory purchase - COGS = Ending inventory balance

Cash paid for new asset = ending gross assets + gross cost of old assets sold - beginning gross assets

Cash from asset sold = book value of the asset + gain/ - losses on sale

Net cash flows from creditors = new borrowings - principal amounts repaid

Net cash flows from shareholders = new equity issued - share repurchases - cash dividends paid

The steps in calculating CFO under the indirect method can be summarized as:

1. Begin with net income.
2. Subtract gains or add losses that resulted from financing or investing cash flows (such as gains from sale of land).
3. Add back all noncash charges to income (such as depreciation and amortization) and subtract all noncash components of revenue.
4. add or subtract changes to balance sheet operating accounts as follows:

• Increases in the operating asset accounts (uses of cash) are substracted, while decrease (sources of cash) are added.
• Increases in the operating liability accounts (sources of cash) are added, while decreases (use of cash) are subtracted.

Converting indirect method to direct method:

Cash collections from customers:

1. Begin with net sales from the income statement.
2. Subtract (add) any increase (decrease) in the accounts receivable balance as reported in the indirect method.
3. Add (subtract) an increase (decrease) in unearned revenue.

Csh payments to suppliers:

1. Begin with COGS as reported in the income statement.
2. If depreciation and/or amortization have been included in COGS (they increase COGS), these items must be added back to COGS when computing the cash paid to suppliers.
3. Reduce (increase) COGS by any increase (decrease) in the accounts payable balance as reported in the indirect method.
4. Add (subtract) any increase (decrease) in the inventory balance as disclosed in the indirect method.
5. Subtract an inventory write-off that occurred during the period.

Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) is the cash available to all investors, both equity owners and debt holders.

FCFF = NI + NCC + [Int * (1- tax rate)] - FCInv - WCInv

• NI = net income
• NCC = noncash charges (depreciation and amortization)
• Int = interest expense
• FCInv = fixed capital investment (net capital expenditures)
• WCInv = working capital investment

FCFF = CFO + [Int * (1 - tax rate)] - FCInv

Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) is the cash flow that would be available for distribution to common shareholders.

FCFE = CFO - FCInv + Net borrowing (debt issued - debt repaid)

Performance ratio
Cash flow-to-revenue = CFO / Revenue

Cash return-on-assets = CFO / average total assets

Cash return-on-equity = CFO / average total equity

Cash-to-income = CFO / Operating income

Cash flow per share = (CFO - preferred dividends) / (weighted average number of common shares)

Coverage ratios
Debt coverage = CFO / total debt

Interest coverage = (CFO + interest paid + tax paid) / interest paid

Reinvestment = CFO / cash paid for long term assets

Debt payment = CFO / cash long-term debt repayment

Dividend payment = CFO / dividends paid

Investing and Financing = CFO / cash outflows from investing and financing activities

Special Topic: Cost Included in Inventory and Inventory Write-down/up

Cost Included in Inventory

Product costs (capitalized costs) = Raw Material + Coversion Costs + Allocated Fixed Overhead (based on normal capacity level)+ Freight-in (other costs necessary to bring the inventory to its present location and condition)

Inventory Write-down/up

Original cost ................ $210
Estimated selling price $225
Estimated selling costs $22
Net realizable value .... $203
Replacement cost ........ $197
Normal profit margin $12

What are the per-unit carry value of inventory under IFRS and under U.S. GAAP?

Under IFRS, inventory is reported on the balance sheet at the lower of cost or net realizable value. Since orignial cost of $210 exceeds net realizable value ($225-$22 = $203), the inventory is written down to the net realizable value (NRV) of $203 and a $7 loss ($203 net realizable value -$210 original cost) is reported in the income statement.

Under U.S. GAAP, inventory is reported at the lower of cost or market. In this case, market is equal to replacement cost of $197, since net realizable value of $203 is greater than replaement cost, and net realizable value minus a normal profit margin (replacement cost), the inventory is written down to $197 and $13 loss ($197 replacement cost - $210 original cost) is reported in the income statement.

Assume that in the year after the writedown in the above example, next realizable value and replacement cost both increase by $10. What's the impact of the recovery under IFRS and under U.S. GAAP?

Under IFRS, the inventory should be written up to $210 ($210 original cost < $213 NRV) per unit and recognize a $7 gain in its income statement. The wrte-up (gain) is limited to the original writedown of $7. The carry value cannot exceed original cost.

Under U.S. GAAP, no write-up is allowed. The per-unit carrying value will remain at $197. it will simply recognize higher profit when the inventory si sold.

Balance Sheet

Assets = Liabilities + Equity

Common Balance Sheet Assets Accounts:
Cash and cash equivlents
Accounts receivable
Inventory
Prepaid Expense
Investment
Property, plant and equipment
Intangible assets
Deferred tax assets
Pension assets

Common Balance Sheet Liabilities Accounts:
Accounts payable
Accrued expenses
Unearned revenue
Nots payable
Bonds payable
Deferred tax liabilities
Pension liabilities

Common Balance Sheet Equity Accounts:
Capital Stocks
Additional paid-in-capital 资本公积
Treasury stock 库存股
Retained earnings
Acumulated other comprehensive income

Account format:左边资产，右边负债和权益
Report format: 自上而下，资产-负债-所有者权益
Classified balance sheet: 分为长期(long term)和流动(current)记账分类加总

Current assets/liabilities
working capital = current assets - current liabilities

Noncurrent assets/liabilities

If a firm has a controlling interest in a subsidiary that is not 100% owned, the parent reports a minority (noncontrolling) interest in its consolidated balance sheet. the minority interest is the pro-rata share of the subsidiary's net assets (equity) not owned by the parent company.
少数股东权益按IFRS规定应列示合作报表的权益部分，但美国GAAP下规定可以列示与资产负债表的负债，所有者权益部分或这介于负债与所有者权益的"夹层区(mezzanine section)"

Historical costs 历史成本
Faire value 公允价

The finanical statement footnotes should include the following information about the measurement of the firm's assets and liabilities:

Basis for measurement
Carrying value of inventory by category
Amount o finventory carried at fair value less costs to sell
Write-downs and reversals, with a discussion o the circumstances that led to them
Inventories pledged as collateral for liabilities
Inventories recognized as an expense

Current assets: cash and equivalents, accounts receivable, inventories, marketable securities and other current assets including prepaid expenses.

Special Topic : Basic EPS Vs. Diluted EPS

EPS is one of the most commonly used corporate profitability performance measures for publicly-traded firms.

Simple capital structure contains no potentially dilutive securities.
Complex capital structure contains potentially dilutive securities such as options, warrants, or convertible securities.

BASIC EPS
.....................................Net income - preferred dividens
Basic EPS = ----------------------------------------------------------------
.....................Weighted aver. # of common shares outstanding

The weighted average number of common shares is the number of shares outstanding during the year, weighted by the portion of the year they were outstanding.

A company issued 1000 shares of new stocks in Jan 1st, and then it issued 2000 shares in Apr 1st, then it issued 5000 shares in Jul 1st, finally it issued 10000 shares in Sep 1st, calculate the weighted average number of common shares A company actually issued. A company has net income $40000, and paid $10000 cash dividends to its preferred shareholders, calculate the EPS of Company A.

1000*12=12000
2000*9=18000
5000*6=30000
10000*3=30000
------------------
Total: 90000 shares

Weighted average shares = 90000 / 12 = 7500

Basic EPS = ($40000 - $10000) / 7500 = $4

DILUTED EPS
Dilutive securities are stock options, warrants, convertible debt, or convertible preferred stock that would decrease EPS if exercised or converted to common stock.

Antidilutive securities are stock options, warrants, convertible debt, or convertible preferred stock that would increase EPS if exercised or converted to common stock.

原则：只有这些期权，可转换证券单一列出来能够稀释基础EPS才能将其加入稀释EPS的计算中，否则在单一计算中否决加入，整体计算则要看最终结果，对单一期权和可转换证券不予考察。

Diluted EPS = [(net income - preferred dividends) + (convertible preferred dividends) + (convertible debt interest)(1-t)] / [(weighted average shares) + (shares from conversion of conv. pfd. shares) + (shares from conversion of conv. debt) + (shares issuable from stock options)]

单一考察公司所含的期权和可转换证券是否稀释EPS，可用公式中拆解出来的指数：
可转换债券： [(convertible debt interest)(1-t)] / (convertible debt shares)
可转换优先股：(convertible preferred dividends) / (convertible preferred shares)

计算看涨期权(options)转换普通股数的简单方法
[(AMP - EP) / AMP] * N
AMP = average market price over the year
EP = exercise price of the options or warrants
N = number of common shares that the options and warrants can be converted into

今天是值得纪念的一天

据悉：
北海舰队7艘已到达南沙海域（新闻是说长途拉练训练）亚丁湾回航分舰队到达马尼拉（昨天新闻说回航舰队访问马尼拉，有新青年舰队防空舰）东海舰队10艘已接近南海海域（其中两艘现代、两艘基洛，舰队已过琉球海域，日媒体说往南方进发）总数20艘TG战舰在南海集结。

日本公布的照片显示，115出现在穿越冲绳本岛与宫古岛之间南下的以东海舰队为主力的海军编队中。而116则率领北海舰队为主的海军编队出现在马六甲以东的南海。
南下编队有驱、护、常潜、补，北海舰队有驱、核潜、补；
设想下，两支编队会不会在南海进行TG从来没有过的大规模的编队海上对抗演练？或者525编队会不会与南下的东海舰队编队在南海某点汇合？
另外大部海军现代舰只都开始返港大修。

有生以来能听到这种消息，这正代表着中国这个大陆文明的国家正在向海岚探索，这种敢于挑战危险，勇于承担责任的精神，为我中华文明之骄傲。

个人认为这次大规模高调集结另外一个重要原因是祖国的“施琅”号(原俄罗斯瓦良格号)航空母舰即将下水，主要为航母战斗群组织排列做演练。

另外，青海玉树大地震到目前为止已有760人丧生，11477人伤，243人失踪，胡锦涛访为美国出席46国核峰会提前启程回国，人民币升值和汇率问题前途未卜，在这内忧外患的危及之下，相信祖国能够一如既往，逢凶化吉，战胜一切困难。

Income Statement

Revenue - Expense = net income

Multi-step income statement

Revenue - COGS = Gross Profit
Gross Profit - Selling, General, and Administrative Expense- Depreciation = Operating Profit
Operating Profit - Interest Expense = Income Before Tax
Income Before Tax - Tax Provision = Income from Continuing Operations
Income from Contnuing Operations - Earnings/losses from Disconitinued operations, net of tax = Net Income

The SEC provides additional guidance by listing 4 criteria to determine whether revenue should be recognized:

1. There is evidence of an arrangement between the buyer and seller.
2. The product has been delivered or the service has been rendered.
3. The price is determined or determinable.
4. The seller is reasonably sure of collecting money.

Long term contract:
Percentage-of-completion method vs. Completed-contract method
Installment method vs. Cost recovery method (similar with above)

Users of financial information must consider 3 points when analyzing a firm's revenue:
1. How conservative are the firm's revenue recognition policies?
2. he extent to which the firm's policy on judgment and estimates.

*period costs aer the expenses that can't be directly ried to revenue generation.

Depreciation:
1. Straight-line depreciation (SL)

SL Depreciation expense = (Cost - Residual Value) / Useful Life

2. Accelerated depreciation method
Declining Balance Method (DB)
Double Declining Balance Method (DDB)

DDB depreciation = (2 / useful life )(cost - accumulated depreciation)
*注意题中给出的残值，倒数第2年求得的折旧>最后一年要求的残值。最后一年的折旧就成 倒数第2年的残值 - 既定残值

Inventory:
1. Specific identification method
2. FIFO
3. LIFO
4. Weighted average cost

Nonrecurring items:

Discontinued operations
企业的某项经营业务已经能够以出售，废弃，拆除或其他方式予以处置；或该项营业虽仍在经营，但已有计划将其进行处置。将其放在持续经营项目(continuing operation)之后，非常项目(extraordinary item)之前。

Unusual or infrequent items
非正常或者非经常项目。如固定资产盘盈盈亏，资产处置的净收益/损失，资产报废，资产减记，重组成本。

Extraordinary items
非常项目，即非正常和非经常发生的项目。如资产损失，天灾损失，和提早偿还债务所产生的损益。此项目需在利润表中持续经营利润之后单独列示税后净额。

EPS的讲解另开专题

Gross profit margin = Gross profit / Revenue
Net profit margin = Net income / Revenue

Other comprehensive income:

1. Foreign currency translation gains and losses
2. Adjustments for minimum pension liability
3. Unrealized gains and losses from cash flow hedging derivatives
4. Unrealized gains and losses from available-for-sale securities

Financial Reporting Standards

The two primary standard-setting bodies are the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB)

In U.S. FASB sets forth Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP); Outside the U.S., the IASB establishes International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

IASB has 4 stated goals:
1. Develop global accounting standards requiring transparency, comparability, and high quality in financial statements.

2. Promote the use of global accounting standards.

3. Account for the needs of emerging markets and small firms when implementing global accounting standards.

4. Achieve convergence between various national accounting standards and global accounting standards.

Most national authorities (监管机构) belong to the International Organization of Securities Commission (IOSCO). 3 objectives of financial market regulation according to IOSCO are to:
(1). Protect investors.
(2). ensure the fairness, efficiency, and transparency of markets.
(3). Reduce systemic risk.

Securities and Exchange Commission Required Filings:

Form S-1, Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, Form DEF-14A, Form 8-K, Form 144, Forms 3, 4, 5.

The IFRS framework describes each of these qualities:

Understandability 可理解性
Comparability 可比较性
Relevance 相关性
Reliability. 可靠性 Specific factors that support reliability include:

Faithful representation of transactions and events 忠实对运营和活动的表述
Substance over form. 超过运营形式的实质
Neutrality 中立
Prudence 谨慎性
Completeness 完整性

Constraints on financial statement preparation

The need to balance reliability 可靠性和及时性之间的寻找平衡
Costs 财务报告的成本是否过大
Intangible and non-quantifiable information about the company can't be captured in financial statement.

The 2 primary assumptions:
Accrual Basis 权责发生制
Going concern assumption 持续经营假设

Under IAS No.1 required financial statements are

Balance Sheet
Income Statement
Cash Flow Statement
Statement of Changes in Owners' Equity
Explanatory notes, including a summary of accounting policies

Under IAS No. 1 Principles for preparing financial statements :

Fair presentation
Going concern basis
Accrual basis
Consistency
Materiality

Under IAS No.1 Principles for presenting financial statements:

必须包括类似项目的归总和不同项目的细分
非特殊情况下，不得用资产对冲负债，收入对冲费用
企业必须发布分类资产负债表，将资产和负债俺流动(current)和长期(long term)分类
财务报表的正彪和辅助必须反映必备的最少信息(minmum information).
非特殊情况下，企业财务报表中必须对较前期数据

Differences between framework of IASB and FASB

构架目的的不同。IASB下，企业管理层可以自己决定会计处理方法，FASB不行.
财务报表目的不同。FASB为非盈利和盈利组织设置不同框架，IASB则只有一个。
假设不同。IASB比较注重持续经营的假设
质量特性不同。FASB注重相关性和可靠性；IASB注重可比较性和可理解性。
财务报告要素不同。

Coherent financial reporting framework:

Transparency
Comprehensiveness
Consistency

Barriers to creating a coherent financial reporting framework:

Valuation
Standard Setting
Measurement

Financial Reporting Mechanics (财务报告机制)

Business Transactions can be classified for financial reporting as operating activities, investing activities, or financing activities.

Financial statement elements are the major classifications of assets, liabilities, owners' equity, revenues, and expenses.

Accounts are the specific records within each element where various transactions are entered.

Classifying Accounts Into he Financial Statement Elements

Assets：

Cash and cash equivalents. 现金和现金等价物，一般为高流动性的在90天内期满的证券

Accounts Receivable. 应付账款

Inventory. 存货

Financial Assets. 如市场证券

Prepaid Expenses. 预付费用，将来被体现在损益表中花费的费用的条目

Property, plant and equipment. 所有权，公司和设备，包括贷销帐或的累计折旧 (Accumulative depreciation)

Investment in affiliates. 隶属公司的投资

Deferred tax assets. 递延税资产，运用不同的折旧方法造成所得税不等，并与未来几年进行摊销

Intangible Assets. 如专利，商业标识，执照和商誉 (patents, trademarks, licenses, and goodwill)

Liabilities:

Accounts payable/trade payable. 应付账款

Financial liabilities. 如短期应付票据 (short-term notes payable)

Unearned revenue. 未实现收入，将来被体现在损益表中的收入条目

Income tax payable. 应付收入税

Long-term debt 长期负债，如应付债券 (bond payable)

Deferred tax liabilities 递延税收负债

Owners' Equity:

Capital. 资本，公司发行股票

Additional paid-in capital. 资本公积：普通股超出面值的溢价收入，回收的股份计入对销账户--库存股 (treasury stock)

retained earnings. 未分配红利

other comprehensive income. 其他综合收益：外汇交易费用，最低养老金负债的调整或者未实现投资收益或损失

Revenue:

Sales. 主营业务收入

Gains. 企业主营业务收入外附加的其他收入

Investment income. 如利息和股利分红

Expenses:

Costs of Goods Sold (COGS). 生产成本

Selling, general, and administrative expense. 营业费用和管理费用：营业费用包括广告费，保险费，展览费等；管理费用包括企业董事会和行政管理部门所发生的管理人员的工资，福利费，咨询费，差旅费，邮电费等

Tax expense. 税金

Interest expense. 利息费用

Loss. 主营业务以外的其他业务带来的资产或者权益的减少
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Assets = Liabilities + Contributed Capital + Beginning Retained Earnings + Revenue - Expense - Dividends

Double-entry accounting is a transaction has to be recorded in at least two accounts.

The principle of accrual accounting requires that revenue is recorded when the firm earns it and expenses are recorded as the firm incurs them regardless of whether cash has actually been paid.

Unearned revenue: 未实现收入 属于负债
Accrued revenue: 应计收入 属于资产
Prepaid expense: 预付费用 属于资产
Accrued expense: 应计收入 属于负债

Journal Entries - 日记账分录
General Journal - 普通日记账
General Ledger - 普通日记总帐
Initial trail balance - 初期试算平衡表
Adjusted trial balance - 调整试算平衡表

Management may attempt to manipulate or misrepresent the company's financial performance.

Lie to me <转>

1. 真正的吃惊表情转瞬即逝，超过一秒钟便是假装的；

2. 撒谎者不像惯常理解的那样会回避对方的眼神，反而更需要眼神交流来判断你是否相信他说的话；

3. “你去过她家吗？不，我没有去过她家”，对问题的生硬重复是典型的撒谎；

4. 男性鼻子下方有海绵体，摸鼻子代表想要掩饰某些内容；

5. 手放在眉骨附近表示羞愧；

6. 描述一连串发生的事情，编造都是按时间顺序进行的，能否流利准确地进行倒叙是判断对方是否说谎的标准之一；

7.叙事时眼球向左下方看，这代表大脑在回忆，所说的是真话；而谎言不需要回忆的过程；

8. 说话时单肩耸动，表示对所说的话极不自信，是说谎的表现；

9. 人在害怕时会出现生理逃跑反应———血液从四肢回流到腿部（做好逃跑准备），因此手的体表温度会下降；

10. 明知故问的时候眉毛微微上扬；

11. 如果对方对你的质问表示不屑，通常你的质问会是真的；

12. 假笑眼角是没有皱纹的；

13. 当面部表情两边不对称的时候，极有可能他们的表情是装出来的；

14. 摩挲自己的手，是一种自我安慰的表现。当你不相信你自己所说的话，这样使自己安心；

15. 抿嘴两次，典型的模棱两可；

16. 双手抱胸、退一步——肢体抗议，说明他的话不可信；

17. 虚情假意不会有眨眼；

18. 说谎者在说谎前会眼神飘移，在想好说什么谎后会眼神肯定，如果你冷静的反驳，说谎者会再次出现眼神飘移；

19. 撒谎者面对一个提问，通常会先有点失措，然后借假笑的时间迅速思考，想出一个并不高明的谎言，然后异常坚定地回应。而且，会一直自言自语，越说越多，因为沉默的时候，他觉得别人还在怀疑他；

20. 用到“那个XX”之类的字眼，表示想划清界限；

21. 瞳孔放大：害怕，愤怒，性欲；

22. 五指向上紧贴在身体的一侧：紧张(stop)，激烈的争吵。

谎言并不可怕，只要记住两点，生活会更简单 ——重要的不是他（她）是否撒谎，而是为什么要撒谎；真相和快乐不可兼得。

An Introduction of Finanical Statement Analysis

The rule of financial reporting is described by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) in its "Framework for the Preparation and Presentation of Financial Statements":

"The objective of financial statements is to provide information about the financial position, performance and changes in financial position of an entity that is useful to a wide range of users in making economic decisions."

Financial statement notes (footnotes) include disclosures that provide further details about the information summarized in the financial statements. Footnotes:

• Provide information about accounting methods, assumptions, and estimates used by management.
• Are audited, whereas other disclosures, such as supplementary schedules, are not audited.
• Provide additional information on items such as business acquisitions or disposals, legal actions, employee benefit plans, contingencies and commitments, significant customers, sales to related parties, and segments of the firm.

Supplementary schedules contain:

• Operating income or sales by region or business segment.
• Reserves for an oil and gas company.
• Information about hedging activities and financial instruments

Under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, management is required to provide a report on the company's internal control system that includes the following elements:

• A statement that the firm's management is responsible for implementing and maintaining effective internal controls.
• A description of how management evaluates the internal control system.
• An assessment by management of the effectiveness over the most recent year of the firm's internal controls.
• A statement that the firm's auditors have assessed management's report on internal controls.
• A statement certifying that the firm's financial statements are presented fairly.

Financial Statement analysis framework:

1. State the objective and context.
2. Gather data.
3. Process the data
4. Analyze and interpret the data
5. Report the conclusions or recommendations
6. Update the analysis.

美国控制中国2/3信用评级市场 威胁国家金融主权 <转自经济参考报 April/12/10>

2010-04-12 作者:《美国渗控我国信用评级业严重威胁国家金融经济安全的研究报告》课题组

编者按：对于信用评级业国人了解得很少，信用评级业到底在国家经济和金融服务体系中有什么特殊作用？这是我们应该迫切了解的。因为它关系到我国的金融主权和国家经济安全。目前，美国正在通过大规模收购中国信用评级机构，试图控制我国信用评级行业。在不到一年的时间里，美国就收购了中国信用评级业的3家龙头企业，控制了我国三分之二以上的信用评级市场，这究竟是为什么？出于对国家经济安全和金融主权的考虑，中央财经领导小组办公室吴红牵头的课题组，对我国信用评级业展开了国际市场和国内市场的调查研究和分析，结论是，美国大规模收购中国信用评级机构正在严重威胁我国的金融主权和国家经济安全。本报将课题报告的部分内容予以刊登。

　　现状：监管不足　2/3被美国掌控

　　经过了十多年的长期准备，美国穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉等利用我国在信用评级管理方面的薄弱环节，在几乎没有任何障碍的情况下，长驱直入中国的信用评级市场。

　　美国评级机构借助被收购公司的分支机构，迅速将触角伸展到全中国，直接或间接从事所有评级和相关业务。

一、我国信用评级市场规模较大的只有四家

　　中国信用评级行业诞生于20世纪80年代末，是改革开放的产物。最初的评级机构由中国人民银行组建，隶属于各省市的分行系统。20世纪90年代以后，经过几次清理整顿，评级机构开始走向独立运营。1997年，人民银行认定了9家评级公司具有在全国范围内从事企业债券评级的资质。2005年，中国人民银行推动短期融资券市场建设，形成了中诚信、大公、联合、上海新世纪和远东五家具有全国性债券市场评级资质的评级机构。2006年后，上海远东因“福禧短融”事件逐渐淡出市场。经过二十多年的发展和市场洗礼，目前规模较大的全国性评级机构只有大公、中诚信、联合、上海新世纪4家。

　　二、美国评级机构对我国评级市场的掌控

　　经过了十多年的长期准备，美国穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉等利用我国在信用评级管理方面的薄弱环节，在几乎没有任何障碍的情况下，长驱直入中国的信用评级市场。

　　2006年，美国评级机构开始了对中国信用评级机构的全面渗控。2006年，穆迪收购中诚信49%股权并接管了经营权，同时约定七年后持股51%，实现绝对控股。同年，新华财经(美国控制)公司收购上海远东62%的股权，实现了对该机构的直接控制。2007年，惠誉收购了联合资信 49%的股权并接管经营权；标准普尔也与上海新世纪开始了战略合作，双方亦在商谈合资事宜。穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉三大评级公司也都曾与大公洽谈合资，提出对大公控股或控制经营权，穆迪愿意出价3000万美元购买大公控股权，但都遭到拒绝。这样，目前我国四家全国性的信用评级机构除大公始终坚持民族品牌国际化发展外，其余已经或正在被美国控制。

　　在被美国收购的评级机构中，中诚信、联合在全国各省均设有分公司，他们可以从事国内的所有评级业务，市场份额合计超过2/3以上。美国评级机构借助被收购公司的分支机构，迅速将触角伸展到全中国，直接或间接从事所有评级和相关业务。

　　三、我国信用评级市场过度开放的原因

　　我国信用评级市场过度开放的主要原因有以下几点：

　　 (1)对信用评级缺乏了解。信用评级是事关金融产品定价的高端产品，但多数人不了解信用评级对国家经济社会发展和安全的重要性，更多的人根本就不懂评级是什么。这样一种具有普遍性的思想认识基础使得信用评级对我国经济社会发展的深层次重要影响和作用没有引起各方面足够的认识，信用评级业长期处于自生自灭的生存环境中。

　　(2)盲目迷信外国技术，认为美国评级机构比中国的好。由于对信用评级特殊性的不了解，很多中国人认为信用评级就是一般中介服务，甚至认为按照国际标准，由美国人给中国企业评级更公正、更权威。特别是一些政府管理部门，根本瞧不起中国本土评级机构，而对美国机构却频频安排高规格高级别接待，听取他们的意见。有的政府部门在评级业务的准入标准上明确首选国外机构。

　　(3)信用评级机构处于无人管理状态，国家尚无明确政策法规限制外国机构进入中国评级市场。迄今为止，中国没有法规明确评级机构归口哪个政府部门管理，有关部门仅依据其业务需要选择用谁的评级结果，是选中资还是外资也无法规和政策依据。中国政府在入世承诺中未包括信用评级业，面对美国机构的凌厉攻势，政府部门找不到政策依据，特别在对评级业对国家的战略影响作用认识不清晰的情况下，没有制定相应的对策，实际上形成了对美国全面开放中国信用评级市场的局面。

　　(4)持续进行政府高层公关。美国评级机构利用中国人对信用评级不完全了解、崇洋心理以及政府的监管缺位，持续进行政府高层公关，引导高层对外国机构进入中国市场原则表态，以此形成对具体业务部门的心理压力，并向公众传递一种中国政府支持他们进入国内市场的信息。中外评级机构与中国政府决策层接触交流机会的不对等，使得中国政府官员对美国评级业的了解程度远胜于本国。

　　与此形成对比的是，中资评级机构没有一家在美国境内开展信用评级业务，在亚洲和欧美评级市场上没有中国的评级声音，中国在世界评级界的“话语权”很弱。这种开放的不对等性使得我国民族信用评级业的发展处于不利地位，不利于我国评级业的长远发展。

　　危害：难以取得金融话语权　丧失大量国家资产

据最新统计，仅2006 年，境外投资者在工、建、中、交等国有银行身上就赚了7500亿，加上从其他中国股份制商业银行享受到的利润，保守估计，外资一年从中国银行业赚取的利润超过1万亿。

　　中国银行股被贱卖，问题并不在IPO环节，而是出在此前引入战略投资者的定价上。

　　一、美国评级机构控制我国评级市场将直接威胁国家金融安全

　　美国评级机构通过对资本市场的控制，就可以直接影响我国的宏观经济，甚至扰乱我国的经济秩序。长时期以来，美国评级机构有意压低我国的信用级别，影响了我国政府和企业的国际形象，增大了海外融资成本。如：2003年底，正值我国银行业谋求海外上市之际，美国标准普尔宣布维持其10年来对中国主权信用评级的BBB级，即“适宜投资”的最低限，而这10年正是我国经济迅速发展、外汇储备稳定增加的10年。还将中国13家商业银行的信用级别都评为不具备投资价值的“垃圾等级”，同时美国评级机构又高调肯定境外投资者参股中国银行，使其在与中国商业银行谈判时压低价格，为国际垄断资本攫取我国的国有资产大开方便之门。据最新统计，仅2006年，境外投资者在工、建、中、交等国有银行身上就赚了7500亿，加上从其他中国股份制商业银行享受到的利润，保守估计，外资一年从中国银行业赚取的利润超过1万亿。世界银行在2007年5月30日公布的《中国经济季报》中明确指出：中国银行股被贱卖，问题并不在IPO环节，而是出在此前引入战略投资者的定价上。较低的入股价格使得境外战略投资者们在中国金融股身上享受着暴利。目前国内专家学者越来越清楚地感受到了我国银行被贱卖造成的损失和危害，但对美国评级机构在其中所起的关键作用却依然没有充分的认识。近年来，美资机构加大了对香港金融市场的渗透与操纵，经常对香港上市的中资企业进行评级，每次都会引起香港股市的震荡。鉴于美国评级机构对香港金融市场的影响与日俱增，2002年7月，香港交易所与标准普尔签署了合作协议，有专家认为，这是香港以金融主权出让，换取美国评级机构“口下留情”，这种做法在当今国际上实属罕见。而美国评级机构正悄然进入中国经济腹地和敏感性行业，通过参与越来越多的中国国内重大债务融资评级，试图控制中国信用评级市场，通过主导中国金融市场定价权的方式渗控我国金融主权，实现其国家战略图谋。

二、美国评级机构控制我国评级市场将严重威胁国家经济技术信息安全

　　美国信用评级机构渗控我国评级业就可以方便地获取我国的政务信息、国有骨干企业、国防工业和特种行业、乃至国家全面的经济和技术信息，从而掌握我国技术发展动态和重大商业机密，使我国在国际竞争中处于被动地位，这势必从根本上动摇国家的竞争力。事实上，美国评级机构正以所谓“权威”和“公正”招牌参与越来越多的中国重大债务融资评级(包括国防企业和特种行业)，悄然进入我国的经济腹地和敏感性行业，公开窃取中国最有价值的经济技术情报和政务信息。最可悲的是，我们还要为此支付高额服务费用。

　　三、美国评级机构控制我国评级市场将使中国难以在国际金融服务体系中获得话语权

　　目前美国在国际金融服务体系中占据了绝对主导地位，在国际金融市场上拥有绝对的话语权和垄断地位。信用评级没有国际标准，美国评级机构代表了美国的意识形态和国家利益，经常通过其拥有的绝对话语权影响和操控国际资本市场，协助美国企业和政府攫取经济和政治利益，成为美国政治和经济强权的新工具。东南亚金融危机酝酿阶段，美国评级机构有如合谋保持沉默，危机爆发后又降级过激，加剧市场恐慌，将金融危机风暴成功拦截在美国之外，使亚洲沦为重灾区，美国本身却成为“安全避风港”。1998年亚太经合组织峰会上，马来西亚总理就此严词批评美国穆迪和美国标普的评级缺乏客观性，在亚洲金融危机中助纣为虐。美国还对反伊战的德国企业连续降级，而对其支持者澳大利亚提升信用级别。事实证明，美国评级机构通过其拥有的绝对话语权影响和操控国际资本市场，经常“在关键时刻发挥关键作用”。

　　对策：扶持本国评级机构　维护国家金融安全

　　俄罗斯总理普京宣布建立本土评级机构；马来西亚政府决定凡发行本币债券和银行借款必须由其唯一的本土机构进行评级；韩国加强了双评级管理，规定发债主体必须选择韩国的国家信息和信用评估有限公司作为双评级机构之一；日本政府出资支持其控制的亚洲评级协会扩大日本评级机构在亚洲的影响。

　　胡锦涛同志在中央政治局第四十三次集体学习时强调：金融越发展越要加强监管。要坚持把金融监管作为金融工作的重中之重。

　　人们从全球金融危机的经验教训中，才开始认识到美国垄断的评级体系在其“道德风险”控制与“评级标准”方面存在严重的问题。席卷全球的金融危机使世界评级格局正在悄然发生变化。加强评级监管的共识已经形成，越来越多的国家正在制定更为严厉的评级监管法规，着手扶持保护本国评级机构发展，依赖自己的力量维护国家金融安全。如：俄罗斯总理普京宣布建立本土评级机构；马来西亚政府决定凡发行本币债券和银行借款必须由其唯一的本土机构进行评级；韩国加强了双评级管理，规定发债主体必须选择韩国的国家信息和信用评估有限公司作为双评级机构之一；日本政府出资支持其控制的亚洲评级协会扩大日本评级机构在亚洲的影响。这些迹象表明：信用评级正被提升到国家战略层面，通过掌握评级话语权抵制现行不公正的国际评级体系正在成为一种潮流，这就为我国参与后金融危机时代的国际评级规则制定，争取国际评级话语权，创造了一个难得的历史性机遇。建议：

一、培育扶持民族信用评级机构，确保我国在国际金融市场的话语权
　　
中央应将加快发展民族信用评级机构作为国策、并纳入国民经济与金融发展规划，促进社会信用体系发展，使国家信用评级业与我国经济社会发展同步。中国是美国国债的最大债权国，也是世界第二大净债权国，如果没有评级话语权，也就没有人民币国际化进程中的市场定价权。因此，争取国际评级话语权是保护中国核心国家利益的需要。(1)在监管体系上，坚持统一监管与专业监管相结合的原则。明确评级机构的归口管理部门和监管部门(严格市场准入和日常监管标准)。(2)把跨境贸易人民币结算试点和人民币离岸金融业务，与扶持民族评级机构开展国家信用风险评级结合起来，确保民族信用评级机构对境外人民币主权债务工具的评级话语权。(3)制定特殊的政策和措施，扶持民族信用评级机构成长壮大，可选择二至三家有发展潜质的民族评级机构(以国有参股方式)，给予重点扶持。提升国际竞争力，尽快做大做强。使民族评级机构有能力参与国际金融活动，争取应有的金融事务话语权。

　　二、遏制美国信用评级机构的渗控图谋，捍卫我国的金融主权和国家安全

　　外资机构可以参与不涉及国家经济技术安全的评级业务，但绝不能允许其主导我国评级市场。目前，美国评级机构可以不受限制地参与我国政府和各类企业(包括金融业、国防工业)的信用评级，必须完善信用评级的相关法律法规。(1) 明确限制外资评级机构不得涉及国家安全的经济领域，如大型国有企业与主要金融机构，以及国防工业(兵器、航天、航空、核工业、船舶)等。(2)我国信用评级市场的对外开放必须坚持对等原则。在批准外资进入中国信用评级市场的同时，我们应该要求其所在国政府承诺对中国评级机构的市场准入。以捍卫我国的金融主权和国家安全。

　　三、外资机构持股中资信用评级机构的比例最高不得超过25%，对不涉及国家金融、经济技术安全的评级，可采取“双评级”

　　信用评级业直接决定着资本市场上的定价权和话语权。世界各经济大国都是依靠本国评级机构为国内资本市场提供评级服务。严格控制外资评级机构进入的控股比例。根据我国国情：(1)借鉴外资金融机构投资中资银行的相关规定，外资机构持股中资信用评级机构的比例最高不得超过25%，而且不能直接或间接控制合资企业的经营权。(2)在华独资或中外合资的评级机构，凡是涉及为国外情报机构提供情报的，一经查实，立即取消其在华评级业务。(3)对于不涉及国家经济技术安全的评级应采用“双评级”。也就是说外资评级机构参与不涉及国家经济技术安全的评级，必须有本国的评级机构同时出具评级报告，以保障我国骨干企业进入国际市场时获得公正的待遇。

　　（课题组顾问：中国国际经济交流中心常务副理事长郑新立，财政部部长助理朱光耀；课题组组长：中央财经领导小组办公室吴红，副组长：国家安全部经济研究中心江涌。）

　 信用评级的作用

　　信用评级业是金融体系中特殊的中介服务，是维护国家金融主权的重要力量，代表了一个国家在国际金融服务体系中的国家地位。信用评级是通过对企业和政府的债务偿还风险进行评价，引导金融资本投资和经济决策，它他直接关系到金融产品的定价权，并影响一国信贷市场利率及汇率形成，与国家金融主权和经济安全密切相关。它的定价功能使评级机构掌握着企业和金融市场的生杀大权。美国次债危机证明，信用评级在现代金融体系中的关键作用，一旦信用评级出现问题，将给整个经济金融系统造成严重冲击。1997年，美国穆迪宣布对日本四大券商之一的山一证券降级，直接导致其股价狂跌和倒闭，美国美林公司乘机接管了山一证券，以极少的代价成功进入日本证券市场。2008年席卷全球的金融危机，就是由信用评级引发的一场灾难，在2008年10月22日美国国会听证会上，美国三家评级机构承认他们犯了道德错误，向市场提供了虚假评级信息。迪拜债务危机再次表明，美国主导的信用评级不能有效揭示国际债权债务关系中的风险。目前，加强评级监管已成为许多国家的共识，评级监管已写入G20金融峰会宣言。

　　美国信用评级占据国际垄断地位

经过了十多年的长期准备，美国穆迪、标准普尔等美国信用评级机构在国际金融服务体系中占据了垄断地位和拥有绝对话语权。信用级别是否客观很大程度上取决于评级机构的立场，美国评级机构渗透了美国的意识形态和国家利益，成为美国持续推行其价值观与政治经济强权的重要工具。而美国资本市场的评级准入限制保证了美国评级机构的垄断地位。

　　由于拥有全球最多的金融资本，美国金融市场是国际金融市场最重要的组成部分，美国在国际金融服务体系中占据了绝对主导地位。美国评级市场的准入制度使得美国评级机构得以凭借美国强大的金融资本在国际金融市场上拥有了绝对的话语权和垄断地位。

　　同时，对于国外评级机构试图进入美国市场，虽然没有明确限制的法规条例，美国监管当局对外国评级机构的进入一直持严格限制的态度。日本最大的评级机构R&I从1998年开始申请进入美国评级市场，用了近10年时间，取得了进入美国市场的资格，但要在美国真正开展评级业务尚有许多不成文的限制。

　　巴塞尔委员会关于银行监管的法规中有一条新规定：评级机构对银行的信用等级评定，将决定银行法定准备金数额的多少。这些规则的制定和推广使用，加强了美国评级公司的强权地位，美国评级公司实际上已经成为国际资本市场的监管者，但是在国际社会上还没有一个机构来监督美国的评级机构。

美国评级机构采取的是双重标准

　　美国评级机构的双重标准表现为两方面：一方面，在美国本土评级时，主要依据被评估公司自身或经美国会计公司发布的财务报告，但是，对于美国以外的企业，除少数进行“自愿评估”(需要付费)外，大多数则依据评级机构的独立评估。另一方面，对美国本土市场存在的问题经常视而不见，而对他国尤其是美国不喜欢的国家的资本市场动态往往“明察秋毫”。在1995年英国巴林银行破产的同时，美国银行的金融衍生品市场不良投资高达23万亿美元，美国评级机构都不曾降低美国银行的信誉等级。从“9·11”袭击，到安然等巨型企业的财务丑闻，到众多华尔街股票分析师不法行为连续曝光，再到2003年11月摩根大通等华尔街知名银行的金融欺诈，直至伊拉克战争与持续恐怖袭击威胁等等，美国资本市场遭遇一次又一次冲击与持续威胁，国际资本纷纷逃离美国，但是美国评级机构都没有也不打算降低美国的主权评级。

　　信用评级业在世界各国受到严格控制
　　
由于认识到信用评级的特殊性，世界各主要经济大国如日本、韩国、印度、瑞典、俄罗斯等都主要依靠本国评级机构来维护国内资本市场的安全。各国大力发展本土民族信用评级机构以保护国家利益，对外国评级机构的入境大多持限制态度，即使允许外资进入，也是严格限制其控股比例。例如在日本和韩国，美国评级机构的市场占有率没有超过20%；日本企业评级必须有一家本土评级机构出具评级报告；美国标准普尔在印度的评级机构CRISIL仅有9.57%的股份。

通货膨胀是交易繁荣的表现之一

吉尔吉斯坦的那些事儿

今天游行示威的暴动导致了总统巴基耶夫逃亡。反对派组建临时政府。

毗邻中国的吉尔吉斯，虽是前苏联地区中最贫穷的国家之一，但因处于中亚战略据地，是美俄在中亚「大博弈」的主要战场。事实上，吉尔吉斯蕴含石油、天然气及金矿等天然资源，亦是中国通往中亚产油区如乌玄别克以及里海的重要中转站。吉尔吉斯一旦内乱，有可能打乱中国从西部输油的部署。

　　吉尔吉斯总统巴基耶夫（Kurmanbek Bakiyev）自2005年鬱金香革命上台后，屡被指贪污及用人唯亲。外交上，巴基耶夫一直採左右逢源策略，同时与美俄中合作，但要平衡列强利益并不容易。今次吉尔吉斯局势恶化，有分析便归咎于巴基耶夫跟俄罗斯关系转差。
　　
美俄一直关注中亚伊斯兰武装分子势力，两国在吉尔吉斯都有驻军。由于美国正在阿富汗作战，吉尔吉斯是美军补给线的重要一站，该国的美军空军基地负责支援阿富汗战争。俄国去年初向吉尔吉斯提供21.5亿美元援助，分析家相信俄国是要换取吉尔吉斯终止美军的马纳斯空军基地租约。巴基耶夫一度宣布不再续租，但美国总统奥巴马亲自介入，并大幅提高租金，美军得以保留基地，引起俄国不满。俄国总理普京本月1日便宣布，将对输往吉尔吉斯的石油製成品徵收新关税，分析指这可能令吉尔吉斯的汽油价格大涨三成，严重打击吉尔吉斯经济。分析家相信俄国此举是向巴基耶夫报复，试图令民怨火上加油。俄国传媒近日亦大肆攻击巴基耶夫。有传言甚至指俄国有份幕后策划近期反巴基耶夫示威，但俄国副外长昨严辞否认。

无敌也是一种寂寞

Special Topic: Market Coordination Vs. Firm Coordination

专题：市场协调和企业协调

市场协调是指整个市场的各个经济体为了实行某个生产目标而相互协作。比如要是观众欣赏一部电影，需要投资方，制片方，导演和演员，发行方，电影院团体相互协作实现这一经济行为。市场协调催生性的行业，尤其催生新兴服务产业。对国家的整个经济体而言可以增加国家经济体内部行业的多样性，但是伴随而生的也有复杂性和联系性。

企业协调是指整个企业作为一个个体实现某个生产目标而相互协作。企业能力比市场更加有效地协调经济伙同这是因为企业经常实现更低的交易成本，规模经济的优势，领域的经济性，集中化生产的经济型。企业协调通常催生新兴的项目或者新兴的现存实体的经济运作，通常是为提高生产力和细化分工作出贡献。如公司外购零件，原来公司从生产到组装一条龙，现在通过外购零部件公司仅仅负责组装，从而极大降低了成本，提升生产效率，从而使各行各业更具竞争。

通常来讲企业协调优于市场协调，其优越性体现如下：

1. Transaction cost
2. Economies of Scale
3. Economies of Scope
4. Economies of Team Production (Project Managers)

但笔者不这么认为。具体问题具体分析。

Reading #16: Organizing Production

Economic Profit = Total Revenue - Opportunity Costs (Total Costs)
opportunity cost = Explicit cost + implicit cost
Implicit cost = the opportunity cost to a firm of using its own capital + the oportunity cost of the time and financial resources of the firm's owners.
*implicit rental rate = economic depreciation + foregone interest

Constrained Profit Maximation
1. Technology Constraints
2. Information Constraints
3. Market Constraints

Technological Efficiency vs. Economic Efficiency
技术效率是在既定产出的条件下使用最少量的投入，投入包括生产要素各种要素。经济效率是在既定产出的条件下使成本最小化，不计较是否有技术效率，即有经济效益未必有技术效率，有技术效率不一定就有经济效率。

Ways of Organizaing Production:
I. Command System
II. Incentive System
在处理经营权和所有权分开的股份公司的职业经理人的关系时，为了在激励体制下更能发挥经理人的作用，一般会采取以下3中方法:
1. Ownership. 奖励配股
2. Incentive Pay. 绩效工资
3. Long-term Contract. 为了使CEO能够更好的作出成绩，给予长时间聘用合同有助于CEO质地计划的战略考虑和部署。

Types of Business Organizations:
I. Proprietorship
II. Partnership
III. Corporation
主要区别在于责任，募集资本难度，和税收程度(I&II 是一次性缴税，III为双次缴税)上体现不同。

Types of Economic Markets:
I. Perfectly Competitive
II. Monopolistic Competitive
III. Oligopoly
IV. Monopoly

Four Firm Concentration Ratio:
通过对某行业中四大企业固定期间的总销售额之和来度量，FFCR>60% 此行业为寡头 FFCR<40%>1800属于非竞争市场。

Firm Coordination Vs. Market Coordination
市场协调和企业协调 （另作专题）

III. Economics

Session 4. Microeconomic Analysis

Reading 13: Elasticity
Reading 14: Efficiency and Equity
Reading 15: Market in Actions
Reading 16: Organizing Production
Reading 17: Output and Costs

Session 5. Market Structure and Macroeconomic Analysis

Session 6: Monetary and Fiscal Economics

Outline of CFA Level I

I. Ethical and Professional Standards
II. Quantitative Methods
III. Economics

• Microeconomic Analysis
• Market structure and Macroeconomic Analysis
• Monetary and Fiscal Policy

IV. Financial Reporting and Analysis
V. Corporate Finance
VI. Portfolio Management
VII. Equity
VIII. Fixed Income
IX. Derivatives
X. Alternative Investments

Technical Analysis

Basic assumptions of establishing Technical Analysis:

Values, thus prices are determined by supply and demand.
Supply and demand are driven by rational and irrational behaviors.
The security prices move in the trend that persist for a long period.
While the causes of changes in supply and demand changes are difficult to determine, the actual shifts in supply and demand are observed in market price behavior.

The advantages of Technical Analysis:

• It's quick and easy.
• It doesn't involve accounting data and analytical adjustments for the difference in accounting methods.
• It incorporates psychological as well as economic reasons behind price changes.
• It tells when to buy (not why investors are buying).

The major challenge to technical analysis is the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).

the views and indicators of technical analysis:

Contrarian View, Following Smart Money View, Momentum indicators and Price and Volume Indicators

Contrarian View:

• Cash Position of Mutual Fund
• Investor's Credit Balance of Breakerage Account
• Opinions of Investment Advisory Services
• Over-the-counter and NYSE
• COBE put/option
• Stock Index Futures

Smart money rules:

• Confidence Index (CI)
• T-bil-Eurodollar Yield Spread
• Debit Balance in Brokerage Accounts (Marging Debt)

Momentum Indicators:

• Breadth of Market
• Stocks above their 200-day moving average

Stock Price and Volume Techniques:

• Dow Theory: Major Trends, Intermediate Trends, and Short-run movements.
• Importance of Volume
• Support and Resistance Levels
• Moving Average Lines
• Relative Strength
• Graphs

Choosing Sample

There are 2 limitations on the idea of "the larger, the better", when it comes to selecting an appropriate sample size. One is that larger samples may contain observations from a different populaiton (distribution). Th other one is costs of using a larger sample.

Biases:
数据线安泽偏差(Data mining/data snooping bias)
数据挖掘偏差是研究基于历史经验据而不是基于经验验证过的发展的经济理论所产生的误差。Data snooping causes data mining，当分析者一直使用相同的数据库来进行研究，这就产生了数据挖掘偏差。

样本选择偏差(sample selection bias)
样本选择偏差是一种系统性的，因为样本不是随机的，得到的任何结果就不能用用到总体分布。一个典型的形式是生存偏差(survivorship bias)，比如共同基金的morningstar指数。

预测偏差(Look-ahead bias)
预测偏差发生在分析这在研究的时候，用的数据早就过时了。

时间阶段偏差(Time period bias)
当被研究数据的时间跨度无法确定，要么太长，要么太短时，就会产生时间阶段偏差。

凯恩斯主义经济学中的总供给(AS)和总需求(AD)

凯恩斯主义总支出模型包括：消费支出，投资支出，政府购买支出和净出口，总支出每一部分都对物品和劳务总需求作出了贡献。
Expenditure = Consumption Expenditure + Investment + Government Purchase + Net Export

支出法是通过把消费支出(C, I, G, NX) 加总求和来衡量GDP, 即
Real Aggregate Expendirure = GDP

居民消费支出，居民购买的消费品与劳务的价值。影响居民消费支出的主要由可支配收入决定。可支配收入(disposable income) 是居民提供生产要素劳务所得到的收入，加上政府转移支付前去税收。可支配收入分为消费和储蓄两方面。可支配收入与消费成正比。

投资支出，购买新工厂，设备和建筑物，以及增加存款。因为投资是被基本模型意外的因素确定，认为投资支出是给定的，不岁可支配收入的变化而变化。

政府支出，政府支出想投资一样，是给定的，不岁可支配收入而变化。所以在模型中，投资和政府支出假设是给定的。

净出口是国外对本国产品和劳务的净支出。

奥巴马下令废除施行20年的禁令 美国东岸可采油（转）

美国总统奥巴马（Barack Obama）宣布解除美国东岸部分海域採油禁令，容许油公司进行石油及天然气钻探。当局称，有关措施可助减少美国对海外石油的倚赖，及创造更多就业机会。有关政策料将获长期倡议在美国本土开採石油的共和党及油公司欢迎，但将引起受影响州份居民及环保人士抗议。

奥巴马周三中午在马里兰州安德鲁斯空军基地公布离岸石油与天然气勘探计划。美国在过往逾20年内一直禁止在墨西哥湾以外的近岸海域开採石油，但奥巴马宣布，将陆续开放美国东岸与墨西哥湾东部一些海域供勘探与开採石油和天然气。

官方未有公布将开放地区潜在油气储量，但内政部估计，以现时美国能源消耗量计算，这些地区可供应美国3年石油用量及多于两年天然气用量。最先解禁的弗吉尼亚州外海，该处估计有1.3亿桶油以及1.14兆平方迟天然气藏量，当局计划将来逐步开发东岸其他海域，覆盖范围由特拉华州北部到佛罗里达州中部约 1.67亿英亩海域。新泽西州以北、以及由墨西哥边境到加拿大边境的西岸沿海，则会继续列为禁区，相信与当地政客强烈反对开採有关。

离岸开採石油是共和党在2008年大选时主要主张之一，面对高油价引起的社会怨气及中东政局不稳等压力，奥巴马在竞选时亦多次表示支持扩大近岸採油。他在 1月的国情咨文中也表示，美国要摆脱对进口石油的倚赖，就必须採取「果断决定」，开放新的离岸地区进行油气开发。

新开採方案其实是源自美国上一任总统小布殊。负责制订有关方案的内政部长萨拉查（Ken Salazar），去年举行多场公众谘询，收到50万份意见，调整开採方案，希望减少反对压力。新方案重新把阿拉斯加布里斯托尔湾列为禁止开採区，当地有很高生态价值，除了是商业捕鱼重地，亦有不少濒临绝种的鲸鱼。除了用这一禁令讨好环保人士，奥巴马还将推出新能源政策，包括为政府车队添加5000架混合燃料车等。

《纽约时报》报道，弗吉尼亚离岸海域最快可于下年供油公司租用开採，该海域已获当局批淮开发，但因有人入禀法院挑战及内政部决定进行更多环境评估而未能招标。