(asset securitization) 是指将缺乏流动性的资产，转换为在金融市场上可以自由买卖的证券的行为，使其具有流动性。
一，广义的资产证券化是指某一资产或资产组合采取证券资产这一价值形态的资产运营方式，它包括以下四类：
1 ）实体资产证券化：即实体资产向证券资产的转换，是以实物资产和无形资产为基础发行证券并上市的过程。
2 ）信贷资产证券化：是指把欠流动性但有未来现金流的信贷资产（如银行的贷款、企业的应收帐款等）经过重组形成资产池，并以此为基础发行证券。
3 ）证券资产证券化：即证券资产的再证券化过程，就是将证券或证券组合作为基础资产，再以其产生的现金流或与现金流相关的变量为基础发行证券。
4 ）现金资产证券化：是指现金的持有者通过投资将现金转化成证券的过程。
二，狭义的资产证券化是指信贷资产证券化。按照被证券化资产种类的不同：
信贷资产证券化可分为住房抵押贷款支持的证券化（ Mortgage-Backed Securitization,MBS ）和资产支持的证券化（ Asset-Backed Securitization, ABS ）。
概括地讲，一次完整的证券化融资的基本流程是：发起人将证券化资产出售给一家特殊目的机构 (Special Purpose Vehicle, SPV) ，或者由 SPV 主动购买可证券化的资产，然后 SPV 将这些资产汇集成资产池（ Assets Pool ），再以该资产池所产生的现金流为支撑在金融市场上发行有价证券融资，最后用资产池产生的现金流来清偿所发行的有价证券。
举例简单通俗地了解一下资产证券化:
A:在未来能够产生现金流的资产
B:上述资产的原始所有者；信用等级太低，没有更好的融资途径
C:枢纽（受托机构）SPV
D:投资者
资产证券化——B把A转移给C，C以证券的方式销售给D。
B低成本地（不用付息）拿到了现金；D在购买以后可能会获得投资回报；C获得了能产生可见现金流的优质资产。
投资者D之所以可能获得收益，是因为A不是垃圾，而是被认定为在将来的日子里能够稳妥地变成钱的好东西。
SPV是个中枢，主要是负责持有A并实现A与破产等麻烦隔离开来，并为投资者的利益说话做事。
SPV进行资产组合，不同的A在信用评级或增级的基础上进行改良、组合、调整。目的是吸引投资者，为发行证券。
过去有很多资产成功进行了证券化，例如应收账款，汽车贷款等，现在出现了更多类型的资产，例如电影特许权使用费，电费应收款单，健康会所会员资格等。但核心是一样的：这些资产必须能产生可预见的现金流。
目前我国试点资产证券化的银行有两家，分别是国家开发银行和中国建设银行。
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Yield Measures, Spot Rates, and Forward Rates
3 sources of returns:
1. coupon interest payments
2. recovery of principal, along with any capital gain or loss
1. coupon interest payments
2. recovery of principal, along with any capital gain or loss
Introduction to the Valuation of Debt Securities
3 steps in the bond valuation process:
Step 1: Estimate the cash flow
Step 2: Determine the appropriate discount rate
Step 3: Calculate the PV of the estimated cash flow
3 situations where estimating future cash flows poses additional difficulties.
1. The principal repayment stream is not known with certainty.
2. The coupon payments are not known with certainty.
3. The bond is convertible or exchangeable into another security.
Price-yield curve 下凸曲线，横轴是市场收益利率，纵轴为市值。
溢价，折价，等价证券图。3种性质债券随成熟期的临近趋于面值。
A zero-coupon bond 一般都为半年期。计算注意：N*2, I/2, PMT/2, 其他不变。
Step 1: Estimate the cash flow
Step 2: Determine the appropriate discount rate
Step 3: Calculate the PV of the estimated cash flow
3 situations where estimating future cash flows poses additional difficulties.
1. The principal repayment stream is not known with certainty.
2. The coupon payments are not known with certainty.
3. The bond is convertible or exchangeable into another security.
Price-yield curve 下凸曲线，横轴是市场收益利率，纵轴为市值。
溢价，折价，等价证券图。3种性质债券随成熟期的临近趋于面值。
A zero-coupon bond 一般都为半年期。计算注意：N*2, I/2, PMT/2, 其他不变。
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Understanding Yield Spread
4 interest rate tools of the Fed use:
The discount rate
Open market operation
Bank reserve requirement
Persuading banks to tighten or loosen their credit policies
4 general shapes of yield curve
Flat
Normal
Inverted
Humped
Basic theories of the term structure of interest rates
Pure expectation theory
short-term rates are expected to rise in the future - upward sloping yield curve
short-term rates are expected to fall in the future - downward sloping yield curve
short-term rates are expected to up then fall in the future - humped yield curve
short-term rates are expected to remain constant - flat yield curve
Liquidity preference theory
besides the expectations about future short-term rates, investors require a risk premium for holding longer term bonds.
Market segmentation theory
investors and borrowers have preferences for different maturity ranges (short-term, mid-term, and long-term).
The appropriate discount rates for individual futre payments are called spot rates.
Absolute yield spread = higher yield of bond - lower hield of bond
Relative yield spread = absolute yield spread / benchmark yield bond
yield ratio = subject yield bond / benchmark yield bond = higer yield bond / lower yield bond
Credit spread (信用溢价) is the difference in yields between 2 issues that are similar in all respects except for credit rating.
在经济膨胀期，信用溢价较小，因为投资者倾向投资高风险债券获取高收益，因此差价就会缩小。反之亦然。
Call option状态下，溢价增加，因为投资者需要风险补偿，原因是承担回购的风险；收益率增加。但是在put option状态下，溢价减小，因为投资者有售出权利抵消部分风险，收益率较低。
流动性的风险存在于所有的收益曲线中，它能否改变曲线的形状完全取决与它在总风险中的权重和其他原因。
After-tax yield = taxable*(1 - marginal tax rate)
Taxable-equivalent yield = Tax-free yield / (1- marginal tax rate)
Lond Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) 是浮动利率债券定价和一年以下期限短期借贷的重要参考利率。LIBOR被认为是非政府私有高信用等级借款者的利率，因此看作是接待的成本或者短期投资的回报。Funded Investors融资投资者，简单地讲就是借钱投资，所以他们必须考察投资的回报率至少要大于LIBOR才有利可图。
The discount rate
Open market operation
Bank reserve requirement
Persuading banks to tighten or loosen their credit policies
4 general shapes of yield curve
Flat
Normal
Inverted
Humped
Basic theories of the term structure of interest rates
Pure expectation theory
short-term rates are expected to rise in the future - upward sloping yield curve
short-term rates are expected to fall in the future - downward sloping yield curve
short-term rates are expected to up then fall in the future - humped yield curve
short-term rates are expected to remain constant - flat yield curve
Liquidity preference theory
besides the expectations about future short-term rates, investors require a risk premium for holding longer term bonds.
Market segmentation theory
investors and borrowers have preferences for different maturity ranges (short-term, mid-term, and long-term).
The appropriate discount rates for individual futre payments are called spot rates.
Absolute yield spread = higher yield of bond - lower hield of bond
Relative yield spread = absolute yield spread / benchmark yield bond
yield ratio = subject yield bond / benchmark yield bond = higer yield bond / lower yield bond
Credit spread (信用溢价) is the difference in yields between 2 issues that are similar in all respects except for credit rating.
在经济膨胀期，信用溢价较小，因为投资者倾向投资高风险债券获取高收益，因此差价就会缩小。反之亦然。
Call option状态下，溢价增加，因为投资者需要风险补偿，原因是承担回购的风险；收益率增加。但是在put option状态下，溢价减小，因为投资者有售出权利抵消部分风险，收益率较低。
流动性的风险存在于所有的收益曲线中，它能否改变曲线的形状完全取决与它在总风险中的权重和其他原因。
After-tax yield = taxable*(1 - marginal tax rate)
Taxable-equivalent yield = Tax-free yield / (1- marginal tax rate)
Lond Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) 是浮动利率债券定价和一年以下期限短期借贷的重要参考利率。LIBOR被认为是非政府私有高信用等级借款者的利率，因此看作是接待的成本或者短期投资的回报。Funded Investors融资投资者，简单地讲就是借钱投资，所以他们必须考察投资的回报率至少要大于LIBOR才有利可图。
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Industry Analysis
4 types of structural changes are:
Demographics
Lifestyle
Technology
Politics and Regulation
Demographics
Lifestyle
Technology
Politics and Regulation
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
An Introduction to Security Valuation
Overview of Security Valuation Techiques
1. Valuation based on the present value of expected futrure cash flows.
2. Relative valuation techniques based on an expected multiple of a firm's expected performance, such as earnings per share or sales per share.
Top-down, 3-step approach
Economic Analysis -- Industry Analysis -- Stock analysis
Step 1: Forecast macroeconomic influence
Step 2: Determine industry effects
Step 3: Perform firm analysis
Forms of Investment returns
Cash flows from projects
interest income on bonds
dividend income on stocks
capital gains
increase in the prices of an asset
The General Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Preferred stock value = Dp / kp
Multiple-year holding period DDM: 不同年度的利息现值+末年本金的现值=证券价值
Infinite period DDM: PV0 = D1 / (ke - gc)
Assumptions of the infinite period DDM:
1. the stock pays dividends, and they grow at a constant rate.
2. the constant growth rate, g, is never expected to change.
3. k must be greater than g. If not, the math will not work.
推出公式 Pn = D(n+1) / (k - g)
Supernormal growth
由超级增长率求出n期利息dividend，然后折现n-1期的利息，用第n期利息根据DDM法则求出第n-1期本金，然后和折现的利息相+的出超级增长债券价值
P0 / E1 = (D1 / E1) / (k - g)
D/E = the expected dividend payout ratio
k = the required rate of return on the stock
g = the expected constant growth rate of dividends
There are several problems with using P/E analysis:
Earnings are historical cost accounting numbers and may be of differing quality.
Business cycles may affect P/E ratios.
k
RFR(nominal) = [1 + RFR (real)](1+IP) - 1
RFR(nominal) = RFR(real) +IP
k = RFR(nominal) + RP
k = RFR + b[E(R) - RFR]
Country Risk Premium:
Business Risk
Financial Risk
Liquidity Risk
Exchange Rate Risk
Country Risk
g=(Retention Rate)(ROE)
Retention rate = 1 - payout ratio
Net profit/ - ROE/ - g/ - (k - g)/ - price of stock/
1. Valuation based on the present value of expected futrure cash flows.
2. Relative valuation techniques based on an expected multiple of a firm's expected performance, such as earnings per share or sales per share.
Top-down, 3-step approach
Economic Analysis -- Industry Analysis -- Stock analysis
Step 1: Forecast macroeconomic influence
Step 2: Determine industry effects
Step 3: Perform firm analysis
Forms of Investment returns
Cash flows from projects
interest income on bonds
dividend income on stocks
capital gains
increase in the prices of an asset
The General Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Preferred stock value = Dp / kp
Multiple-year holding period DDM: 不同年度的利息现值+末年本金的现值=证券价值
Infinite period DDM: PV0 = D1 / (ke - gc)
Assumptions of the infinite period DDM:
1. the stock pays dividends, and they grow at a constant rate.
2. the constant growth rate, g, is never expected to change.
3. k must be greater than g. If not, the math will not work.
推出公式 Pn = D(n+1) / (k - g)
Supernormal growth
由超级增长率求出n期利息dividend，然后折现n-1期的利息，用第n期利息根据DDM法则求出第n-1期本金，然后和折现的利息相+的出超级增长债券价值
P0 / E1 = (D1 / E1) / (k - g)
D/E = the expected dividend payout ratio
k = the required rate of return on the stock
g = the expected constant growth rate of dividends
There are several problems with using P/E analysis:
Earnings are historical cost accounting numbers and may be of differing quality.
Business cycles may affect P/E ratios.
k
RFR(nominal) = [1 + RFR (real)](1+IP) - 1
RFR(nominal) = RFR(real) +IP
k = RFR(nominal) + RP
k = RFR + b[E(R) - RFR]
Country Risk Premium:
Business Risk
Financial Risk
Liquidity Risk
Exchange Rate Risk
Country Risk
g=(Retention Rate)(ROE)
Retention rate = 1 - payout ratio
Net profit/ - ROE/ - g/ - (k - g)/ - price of stock/
Efficient Capital Markets
Market efficiency is based on the following set of assumptions:
1. A large number of profit maximizing participants are analyzing and valuing securities independent of each other.
2. New information comes to the market in a random fashion, and new announcements are independent of each other in regard to timing.
3. Investors adjust their estimates of security prices rapidly to reflect their interpretation of the new information received.
4. Expected returns implicitly include risk in the price of the security.
3 forms of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
Weak-form efficient markets
Semistrong efficient markets
Strong-form efficient markets
Weaks-Form Tests of the EMH
Statisitical tests for independence
Autocorrelation tests
Runs tests
Trading rule tests
考察三天期张，三天期降的趋势
Semi-storng Tests of the EMH
Return prediction studies
Time-series tests
Event studies
Cross-sectional tests 截面检验
Strong Form Tests of EMH
Insider trading
Exchange specialists
Security analysis
Professional money managers
Documented market anomalies:
1. Earings surprises to predict returns
2. Calendar studies 年底股价高，12月底到1月初股价低
3. Price-earnings ratio (P/E)
4. Small firm effect
5. The neglected firms effect
6. Book value/market value --semi-strong EMH
Overall Conclusion About the EMH
the results support the weak-form of the EMH
Event studies support semistorng EMH but time-series and cross-sectional tests do not support
Insider/specialist tests support the strong form of the EMH
IMPLICATIONS OF EFFICIENT MARKETS
Protfolio managers should help:
1. quantify their clients' risk tolerances and return needs within the bounds of the client's liquidity, income, time horizon, and legal and regulatory constraints.
2. Verbalize their clients' portfolio policies and strategies needed to meet the client's needs, then construct an optimal portfolio by allocating funds between financial and real assets. This is referred to as asset allocation.
3. Diversify their clients' portfolio (on a global basis) to eliminate unsystematic costs.
4. Monitor and evaluate changing capital market expectatinons as they affect the risk/return expectations of the assets in the client's portfolio.
5. Monitor their clients' needs and circumstances.
6. Rebalance their clients' portfolios when changes are necessary.
Peformance Measurement
Money Managers
分离好的和坏的股票
The rationale for investing in index funds
指数基金的功能是分享总体上涨
Behavior Finance
Overconfidence Bias
Confirmation Bias
Escalation Bias
1. A large number of profit maximizing participants are analyzing and valuing securities independent of each other.
2. New information comes to the market in a random fashion, and new announcements are independent of each other in regard to timing.
3. Investors adjust their estimates of security prices rapidly to reflect their interpretation of the new information received.
4. Expected returns implicitly include risk in the price of the security.
3 forms of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
Weak-form efficient markets
Semistrong efficient markets
Strong-form efficient markets
Weaks-Form Tests of the EMH
Statisitical tests for independence
Autocorrelation tests
Runs tests
Trading rule tests
考察三天期张，三天期降的趋势
Semi-storng Tests of the EMH
Return prediction studies
Time-series tests
Event studies
Cross-sectional tests 截面检验
Strong Form Tests of EMH
Insider trading
Exchange specialists
Security analysis
Professional money managers
Documented market anomalies:
1. Earings surprises to predict returns
2. Calendar studies 年底股价高，12月底到1月初股价低
3. Price-earnings ratio (P/E)
4. Small firm effect
5. The neglected firms effect
6. Book value/market value --semi-strong EMH
Overall Conclusion About the EMH
the results support the weak-form of the EMH
Event studies support semistorng EMH but time-series and cross-sectional tests do not support
Insider/specialist tests support the strong form of the EMH
IMPLICATIONS OF EFFICIENT MARKETS
Protfolio managers should help:
1. quantify their clients' risk tolerances and return needs within the bounds of the client's liquidity, income, time horizon, and legal and regulatory constraints.
2. Verbalize their clients' portfolio policies and strategies needed to meet the client's needs, then construct an optimal portfolio by allocating funds between financial and real assets. This is referred to as asset allocation.
3. Diversify their clients' portfolio (on a global basis) to eliminate unsystematic costs.
4. Monitor and evaluate changing capital market expectatinons as they affect the risk/return expectations of the assets in the client's portfolio.
5. Monitor their clients' needs and circumstances.
6. Rebalance their clients' portfolios when changes are necessary.
Peformance Measurement
Money Managers
分离好的和坏的股票
The rationale for investing in index funds
指数基金的功能是分享总体上涨
Behavior Finance
Overconfidence Bias
Confirmation Bias
Escalation Bias
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Organization and Functioning of Securities Markets
A well-functioning securities market will offer the following characteristics:
Timely and accurate information
Liquidity
Internal efficiency
Informational efficiency
市场分类：
一级市场：
组织 organization
风险承担 risk bearing
分配 distribution
二级市场：underwriter 承销
二级市场的繁荣，即流通顺畅，价格反应迅速，交易量增加，可以变相刺激一级市场的繁荣。
Call market & continuous market
In call market, the stock is traded at specific times; in continuous markets, trades occur at any time the market is open.
Primary listing markets are the exchanges that formally list a corporation's stock. (国家挂牌股票交易所)
New York Security Exchange (NYSE) lists more than 2700 firms and has an average daily volume of 1.5 billion shares.
The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) primarily lists stocks not traded on the NYSE, along with foreign shares, warrants, options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The Nasdaq National Market System (NMS) has traditionally been desrcribed as an over-the-counter (OTC) market.
Reginal exchange (地区股票交易所)
当地小公司股票在此交易。对挂牌上市的公司规模要求要低很多。如Chicago and Pacific stock exchanges.
Third market (柜台市场) = over-the counter market (又称柜台市场) 只要任何具有一定资格的交易商愿意充当某种证券的做市场，这种证券就可以在柜台市场上交易。
已在交易所公开挂牌上市的证券也可以在柜台市场进行交易，非交易所会员的投资公司可以作为证券的交易上而不通过交易所。
Alternative trading systems refer to computerized systems that do not formally list stocks. These include electronic communications networks that serve retail borkers and small institutional traders, and electronic crossing systems that match large buy and sell orders. these systems do not list stocks, but stocks that are listed on exchanges trade on the alternative systems. This is referred to as "fourth market" trading.
Membership on the U.S. Exchanges falls into 4 different categories.
Specialists 但当做市商
Commission brokers 佣金经纪人
Floor brokers 大堂经纪人：为其他经纪人交易，并收取费用。
Registered traders trade for their own accounts 自营商，为自己账户交易。
订单指令种类：
market orders 普通的市场股票交易买卖
limit orders 限量订单指令
short sale orders 保证金指令
stop loss orders 止损指令：如买时$10为了防止过度损失，规定$8平仓
做市商：（通俗点讲就一套利的仓库）
美国证券交易所的做市商成为专家(specialists)。当某种证券交易清淡，交易者少，可能一个买者要等待很久才能碰到一个卖者交易。做市商用来这种情况下增加市场的流动性，他同时报出买入价(bid price)和卖出价(ask price)以供投资者进行交易，用自己的账户从卖者处买入证券，将证券卖给买入者，从而提供流动性。做市商同时负责保存并处理该证券的限价指令。做市商的收入来源于买入价和卖出价的差额以及限价指令交易的佣金。
卖空是指股票投资者当某种股票价格看跌时，便从经纪人手中借入该股票抛出，在发生实际交割前，将卖出股票如数补进，交割时，只结清差价的投机行为。若日后该股票价格果然下落时，再从更低的价格买进股票归还经纪人，从而赚取中间差价。<转自百度>
Marginal transaction 保证金交易：用借的钱购买证券，经纪公司节前给客户，用所购买的证券做抵押。
trigger price = P0[(1- initial margin) / (1-maintenance margin)]
Timely and accurate information
Liquidity
Internal efficiency
Informational efficiency
市场分类：
一级市场：
组织 organization
风险承担 risk bearing
分配 distribution
二级市场：underwriter 承销
二级市场的繁荣，即流通顺畅，价格反应迅速，交易量增加，可以变相刺激一级市场的繁荣。
Call market & continuous market
In call market, the stock is traded at specific times; in continuous markets, trades occur at any time the market is open.
Primary listing markets are the exchanges that formally list a corporation's stock. (国家挂牌股票交易所)
New York Security Exchange (NYSE) lists more than 2700 firms and has an average daily volume of 1.5 billion shares.
The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) primarily lists stocks not traded on the NYSE, along with foreign shares, warrants, options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The Nasdaq National Market System (NMS) has traditionally been desrcribed as an over-the-counter (OTC) market.
Reginal exchange (地区股票交易所)
当地小公司股票在此交易。对挂牌上市的公司规模要求要低很多。如Chicago and Pacific stock exchanges.
Third market (柜台市场) = over-the counter market (又称柜台市场) 只要任何具有一定资格的交易商愿意充当某种证券的做市场，这种证券就可以在柜台市场上交易。
已在交易所公开挂牌上市的证券也可以在柜台市场进行交易，非交易所会员的投资公司可以作为证券的交易上而不通过交易所。
Alternative trading systems refer to computerized systems that do not formally list stocks. These include electronic communications networks that serve retail borkers and small institutional traders, and electronic crossing systems that match large buy and sell orders. these systems do not list stocks, but stocks that are listed on exchanges trade on the alternative systems. This is referred to as "fourth market" trading.
Membership on the U.S. Exchanges falls into 4 different categories.
Specialists 但当做市商
Commission brokers 佣金经纪人
Floor brokers 大堂经纪人：为其他经纪人交易，并收取费用。
Registered traders trade for their own accounts 自营商，为自己账户交易。
订单指令种类：
market orders 普通的市场股票交易买卖
limit orders 限量订单指令
short sale orders 保证金指令
stop loss orders 止损指令：如买时$10为了防止过度损失，规定$8平仓
做市商：（通俗点讲就一套利的仓库）
美国证券交易所的做市商成为专家(specialists)。当某种证券交易清淡，交易者少，可能一个买者要等待很久才能碰到一个卖者交易。做市商用来这种情况下增加市场的流动性，他同时报出买入价(bid price)和卖出价(ask price)以供投资者进行交易，用自己的账户从卖者处买入证券，将证券卖给买入者，从而提供流动性。做市商同时负责保存并处理该证券的限价指令。做市商的收入来源于买入价和卖出价的差额以及限价指令交易的佣金。
卖空是指股票投资者当某种股票价格看跌时，便从经纪人手中借入该股票抛出，在发生实际交割前，将卖出股票如数补进，交割时，只结清差价的投机行为。若日后该股票价格果然下落时，再从更低的价格买进股票归还经纪人，从而赚取中间差价。<转自百度>
Marginal transaction 保证金交易：用借的钱购买证券，经纪公司节前给客户，用所购买的证券做抵押。
trigger price = P0[(1- initial margin) / (1-maintenance margin)]
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Security -Market Index
Security market indexes are used in the following ares of investment management:
Measuring porfolio performance over various time periods.
Helping in the construction of index portfolio.
Evaluating the financial variables that influence overall security price movements.
Aiding market technicians in their investment decisions.
Helping in the calculation of beta and portfolio theory studies.
Price-weighted index is the arithmetic average of current security prices.
Price-weighted index = sum of stock prices/ # of stocks in index adjusted for splits
Price-Weighted indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIV) and the Nikkei Dow Jones Stock Average.
Cristicism of the DJIA that contains 30 stocks are:
Limited number of stocks in the index. 样本小
Downward bias in the computation of the index.
Large size of the companies included in the index.
The Nikkei Dow is the arithmetic average of the prices of 225 stocks that trade in the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Market value-weighted index is calculated by summing the total value of all the stocks in the index - Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) 标准普尔
Unweighted index places an equal weighted onthe returns of all index stocks. 计算方法有两种：
算术平均法和几何平均法，前者总是大于后者。
三种方法的偏见：
对于价格权重方法的偏见是指数被低估，原因是大公司运用股票分割频繁造成股价下降，但是此方法却无法体现。
对于市值权重发的偏见是指数的波动受大公司影响严重，因为大公司的市值比重比较大。因此大公司们的表现业绩即涨跌主导这指数的动向。
无权重发的偏见是几何平均数要比算术平均数小。
Domestic and Global Equity Indexes:
Domestic Equity Indexes: DJIA in the U.S. & Nikkei DJIA in Tokyo Japan.
Global Equity Indexes:
Financial Times/S&P Actuaries World Indexes are based on about 2500 stocks from 30 countries.
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Indexes are made up of three international, 19 national, and 38 international industry indexes.
Dow Jones World Stock Index represents 2200 companies from around the globe, organized into 120 industry groups.
Bond market indexes:
the creation of bond market indexes is more difficult than stock market indexes for several reasons:
The bond universe is much broader than the universe of stocks.
The bond universe is changing constantly due to the wide variety of new issues, bond maturities, calls, and sinking funds.
The price volatility of a bond is constantly changing Volatility is measured by the bond's duration, which changes with the bond's maturity and the market yield.
There are significant problems in pricing the individual bond issues in an index due to the lack of continuous trade data like that found for most exchange-listed stocks.
Bond indexes fall into 3 basic categories:
1. Investment-grade bond indexes
2. High-yield bond indexes
3. Global bond indexes
Composite stock-bond indexes are developed to measure the performance of all securities in a given country.
Style indexes
Comparaison of indexes over time. the risk/return performances of indexes are different.
国际市场内的国际投资的低相关性
我们知道一个投行的不同部门的金融产品都存在有较低的相关性，国际市场内的金融投资存在着更低的相关性。
Measuring porfolio performance over various time periods.
Helping in the construction of index portfolio.
Evaluating the financial variables that influence overall security price movements.
Aiding market technicians in their investment decisions.
Helping in the calculation of beta and portfolio theory studies.
Price-weighted index is the arithmetic average of current security prices.
Price-weighted index = sum of stock prices/ # of stocks in index adjusted for splits
Price-Weighted indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIV) and the Nikkei Dow Jones Stock Average.
Cristicism of the DJIA that contains 30 stocks are:
Limited number of stocks in the index. 样本小
Downward bias in the computation of the index.
Large size of the companies included in the index.
The Nikkei Dow is the arithmetic average of the prices of 225 stocks that trade in the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Market value-weighted index is calculated by summing the total value of all the stocks in the index - Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) 标准普尔
Unweighted index places an equal weighted onthe returns of all index stocks. 计算方法有两种：
算术平均法和几何平均法，前者总是大于后者。
三种方法的偏见：
对于价格权重方法的偏见是指数被低估，原因是大公司运用股票分割频繁造成股价下降，但是此方法却无法体现。
对于市值权重发的偏见是指数的波动受大公司影响严重，因为大公司的市值比重比较大。因此大公司们的表现业绩即涨跌主导这指数的动向。
无权重发的偏见是几何平均数要比算术平均数小。
Domestic and Global Equity Indexes:
Domestic Equity Indexes: DJIA in the U.S. & Nikkei DJIA in Tokyo Japan.
Global Equity Indexes:
Financial Times/S&P Actuaries World Indexes are based on about 2500 stocks from 30 countries.
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Indexes are made up of three international, 19 national, and 38 international industry indexes.
Dow Jones World Stock Index represents 2200 companies from around the globe, organized into 120 industry groups.
Bond market indexes:
the creation of bond market indexes is more difficult than stock market indexes for several reasons:
The bond universe is much broader than the universe of stocks.
The bond universe is changing constantly due to the wide variety of new issues, bond maturities, calls, and sinking funds.
The price volatility of a bond is constantly changing Volatility is measured by the bond's duration, which changes with the bond's maturity and the market yield.
There are significant problems in pricing the individual bond issues in an index due to the lack of continuous trade data like that found for most exchange-listed stocks.
Bond indexes fall into 3 basic categories:
1. Investment-grade bond indexes
2. High-yield bond indexes
3. Global bond indexes
Composite stock-bond indexes are developed to measure the performance of all securities in a given country.
Style indexes
Comparaison of indexes over time. the risk/return performances of indexes are different.
国际市场内的国际投资的低相关性
我们知道一个投行的不同部门的金融产品都存在有较低的相关性，国际市场内的金融投资存在着更低的相关性。
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Corporate Governance of Listed Companies: A Manual for Investors
Corporate Governance is the set of internal controls, processes, and procedures by which firms are managed.
Good corporate governance practices seek to ensure that:
The borad of directors protects shareholder interests.
The firm acts lawfully and ethically in dealings with shareholders.
The rights of shareholders are protected and shareholders have a vocie in governance.
The board acts independently from management.
Proper procedures and controls cover management's day-to-day operations.
The firm's financial, operating, and governance activities are reported to shareholders in a fair, accurate, and timely manner.
The duty of the board is to act in the shareholders' long-term interests.
To properly protect their long-term interests as shareholders, investors should consider whether:
A majority of the board of directors is comprised of independent members (not management).
The board meets regularly outside the presence of management.
The chairman of the board is also the CEO or a former CEO of the firm. This may impair the ability and willingness of independent board members to express opinions contrary to those of managemet.
Independent board members have a primary or leading board member in cases where the chairman is not independent.
Board members are closely aligned with a firm supplier, customer, share-option plan or pension adviser. Can board members recuse hemselves on any protentila ares of conflict?
While reviewing firm policy regarding election of the board, investors should consider:
Whether there are annual elections or staggered multiple-year terms (a classified board). A classified board may serve another purpose - to act as takeover defense.
Whether the board filled a vacant position for a remaining term without shareholder approval.
Whether shareholders can remove a board member.
Whether the board is the proper size for the specific facts and circumstances of the firm.
A board can be considered independent if its decisions are not controlled or biased by the management of the firm.
To be indenpendent, a board member must not have any material relationship with:
The firm and its subsidiaries, including former employees, executives, and their families.
Individuals or groups, such as a shareholders with a controling interest, which can influence the firm's management.
Executive management and their families.
The frm's advisers, auditors, and their families.
Any entity which has a cross directorship with the firm.
When evaluating the qualifications of board members, consider whether board members:
Can make informed decisions about the firm's future.
Can act with care and competence as a result of their experience with:
Technologies, products, services which the firm offers.
Financial operations and accouting and auditing opics.
Legal issues.
Strategies and planning.
Business risks the firm faces.
Have made any public statements indicating their ethical stances.
Have had any legal or regulatory problems as a result of working for or serving on the firm's board or the board of another firm.
Have other board experience.
Regularly attend meetings.
Are commiteed to shareholders. Do they have significant stock positions? have they eliminated any confilicts of interest?
Have neccessary experience and qualification?
Have served on board for more than 10 years. While this adds experience, these board members may be too closely allied with management.
When analyzing ethics codes, these are items to be considered;
Make sure the board of directors receives relevant corporate information in a timely manner.
Ethics codes should be in compliance with the corporate governance laws of the location country and with the governance requirements set forth by the local stock exchange. Firms shoudl disclose whether they adhered to their own ethical code, including any reasons for failure.
The ethical code should prohibit advantages to the firm's insiders that are not offered to shareowners.
A person should be designated to be reponsible for corporate governance.
IF selected management personnel receive waivers from the ethics code, reasons should be given.
If any provisions of the ethics code wrre waived recently, the firm should explain why.
The firm's ethics code should be audited and improved periodically.
Good corporate governance practices seek to ensure that:
The borad of directors protects shareholder interests.
The firm acts lawfully and ethically in dealings with shareholders.
The rights of shareholders are protected and shareholders have a vocie in governance.
The board acts independently from management.
Proper procedures and controls cover management's day-to-day operations.
The firm's financial, operating, and governance activities are reported to shareholders in a fair, accurate, and timely manner.
The duty of the board is to act in the shareholders' long-term interests.
To properly protect their long-term interests as shareholders, investors should consider whether:
A majority of the board of directors is comprised of independent members (not management).
The board meets regularly outside the presence of management.
The chairman of the board is also the CEO or a former CEO of the firm. This may impair the ability and willingness of independent board members to express opinions contrary to those of managemet.
Independent board members have a primary or leading board member in cases where the chairman is not independent.
Board members are closely aligned with a firm supplier, customer, share-option plan or pension adviser. Can board members recuse hemselves on any protentila ares of conflict?
While reviewing firm policy regarding election of the board, investors should consider:
Whether there are annual elections or staggered multiple-year terms (a classified board). A classified board may serve another purpose - to act as takeover defense.
Whether the board filled a vacant position for a remaining term without shareholder approval.
Whether shareholders can remove a board member.
Whether the board is the proper size for the specific facts and circumstances of the firm.
A board can be considered independent if its decisions are not controlled or biased by the management of the firm.
To be indenpendent, a board member must not have any material relationship with:
The firm and its subsidiaries, including former employees, executives, and their families.
Individuals or groups, such as a shareholders with a controling interest, which can influence the firm's management.
Executive management and their families.
The frm's advisers, auditors, and their families.
Any entity which has a cross directorship with the firm.
When evaluating the qualifications of board members, consider whether board members:
Can make informed decisions about the firm's future.
Can act with care and competence as a result of their experience with:
Technologies, products, services which the firm offers.
Financial operations and accouting and auditing opics.
Legal issues.
Strategies and planning.
Business risks the firm faces.
Have made any public statements indicating their ethical stances.
Have had any legal or regulatory problems as a result of working for or serving on the firm's board or the board of another firm.
Have other board experience.
Regularly attend meetings.
Are commiteed to shareholders. Do they have significant stock positions? have they eliminated any confilicts of interest?
Have neccessary experience and qualification?
Have served on board for more than 10 years. While this adds experience, these board members may be too closely allied with management.
When analyzing ethics codes, these are items to be considered;
Make sure the board of directors receives relevant corporate information in a timely manner.
Ethics codes should be in compliance with the corporate governance laws of the location country and with the governance requirements set forth by the local stock exchange. Firms shoudl disclose whether they adhered to their own ethical code, including any reasons for failure.
The ethical code should prohibit advantages to the firm's insiders that are not offered to shareowners.
A person should be designated to be reponsible for corporate governance.
IF selected management personnel receive waivers from the ethics code, reasons should be given.
If any provisions of the ethics code wrre waived recently, the firm should explain why.
The firm's ethics code should be audited and improved periodically.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Risks Assoicated with Investing in Bonds
1. Inerest Rate Risk
I = coupon rate: Par Bond
I > coupon rate: Discount Bond
I < coupon rate: Premium Bond
Bond Characteristics and Interest Rate Risk
------------------------------------------------------
Maturity up Interest Rate up Duration up
Coupon up Interest Rate down Duration down
Add a Call Interest Rate down Duration down
Add a put Interest Rate down Duration down
------------------------------------------------------
Callable bond value = value of option-free bond - value of embedded call option
* callable bond 一边要比 option-free bond 便宜，因为投资者被转嫁了再投资风险
Duration = - percentage change in bond price / yield change in percent
*利率对债券价格敏感分析的指数，与弹性相似，但是为负相关。
duration不能做投资组合的风险分析是因为数值只允许价格利率曲线平移，而忽略了曲线变形的情况，投资组合的曲线是很多金融产品的混合物，曲线不可能和单个债券平行。
callable and prepayment bond的增加了投资者的reinvestment的风险，通俗点讲就是发行者或者经纪人为了讲自己的利率风险转嫁给投资者成为再投资的风险，要约比无期权债券价格要低，从而补偿给投资者。
2. Yield Curve Risk
3. Call and Prepayment Risk
4. Reinvestment Risk
Security has more reinvestment risk when:
The coupon is higher so tha tinterest cash flows are higher.
It has a call feature (本金都提前落到手里了).
It is an amortizing security (本金慢慢地落到手里).
It contains a prepayment option (提前支付本金)
5. Credit Risk:
Default Risk
Credit Spread Risk
Downgrade Risk
6. Liquity Risk
流动性一般用买卖价差来衡量
7. Exchange-rate Risk
外币贬值，投资于外国债券的投资者遭受损失，外币升值则投资者获得收益。
8. Inflation Risk
Inflaction risk = purchasing power risk
现金流固定，货币购买力下降造成投资者的损失。
9. Volatityl Risk
callable bond value = value of option-free bond - value of call option
价格波动性增加，可回购债券的价值下降
put option value = value of option-free bond + value of put option
价格波动增加，可售出债券的价值增加
10. Event Risk
Disasters
Corporate Restructuring
Regulatory issues
11. Sovereign Risk
政府对偿还债务的态度和政策发生变化的风险。债券师傅偿付不仅取决于借款者是否有能力还款，还取决于其是否愿意还款。
I = coupon rate: Par Bond
I > coupon rate: Discount Bond
I < coupon rate: Premium Bond
Bond Characteristics and Interest Rate Risk
------------------------------------------------------
Maturity up Interest Rate up Duration up
Coupon up Interest Rate down Duration down
Add a Call Interest Rate down Duration down
Add a put Interest Rate down Duration down
------------------------------------------------------
Callable bond value = value of option-free bond - value of embedded call option
* callable bond 一边要比 option-free bond 便宜，因为投资者被转嫁了再投资风险
Duration = - percentage change in bond price / yield change in percent
*利率对债券价格敏感分析的指数，与弹性相似，但是为负相关。
duration不能做投资组合的风险分析是因为数值只允许价格利率曲线平移，而忽略了曲线变形的情况，投资组合的曲线是很多金融产品的混合物，曲线不可能和单个债券平行。
callable and prepayment bond的增加了投资者的reinvestment的风险，通俗点讲就是发行者或者经纪人为了讲自己的利率风险转嫁给投资者成为再投资的风险，要约比无期权债券价格要低，从而补偿给投资者。
2. Yield Curve Risk
3. Call and Prepayment Risk
4. Reinvestment Risk
Security has more reinvestment risk when:
The coupon is higher so tha tinterest cash flows are higher.
It has a call feature (本金都提前落到手里了).
It is an amortizing security (本金慢慢地落到手里).
It contains a prepayment option (提前支付本金)
5. Credit Risk:
Default Risk
Credit Spread Risk
Downgrade Risk
6. Liquity Risk
流动性一般用买卖价差来衡量
7. Exchange-rate Risk
外币贬值，投资于外国债券的投资者遭受损失，外币升值则投资者获得收益。
8. Inflation Risk
Inflaction risk = purchasing power risk
现金流固定，货币购买力下降造成投资者的损失。
9. Volatityl Risk
callable bond value = value of option-free bond - value of call option
价格波动性增加，可回购债券的价值下降
put option value = value of option-free bond + value of put option
价格波动增加，可售出债券的价值增加
10. Event Risk
Disasters
Corporate Restructuring
Regulatory issues
11. Sovereign Risk
政府对偿还债务的态度和政策发生变化的风险。债券师傅偿付不仅取决于借款者是否有能力还款，还取决于其是否愿意还款。
Monday, April 26, 2010
Financial Statement Analysis: Applications
Trends in a company's financial ratios and differences between its financial ratios and those of its competitors or industry average ratios can reveal important aspects of its business strategy.
Cash flow forecast:
1. 宏观预测GDP增长值；
2. 相关性分析GDP增长与本公司销售额之间的联系；
3. 估计公司所占的市场份额，乘以整个行业销售额即为预测公司销售额；
4. 在简单的预测模型中，可用一些历史平均或这趋势调整利润率（gross margin, operating margin, and net income）来预测净利润；
5. 在复杂的预测模型中，损益表和资产负债表的每一项目都可以单独估计，分别假设其增长与销售收入增长的关系；
6. 多期间预测，分析师通常简单地假设销售额以一定比例次序增长；
7. 进行现金预测是，分析师必须假设未来现金流的来源与用途，尤其是营运资本，购入新资产的资本花费，举债或偿债，以及发行或回购股票；
8. 预测的基本假设是非现金营运资本占销售额的百分比不变；
9. 初步模型可以预示公司未来的现金需求，这些需求可以在未来通过计划必要的贷款来满足。
现金流预测具体操作注意：
sales*(1 + ?%);
cost of goods sold * ?% of sale
operating expenses * ?% of sale
noncash working capital * ?% of sale
investment in fixed capital * ?% of sale
Credit rating formula can be seperated 4 general categories:
1. Scale and diversification
2. Operatinal efficiency
3. Margin efficiency
4. Leverage
Potentially attractive equity investments can be identifed by screening a universe of stocks using minimum or maximum value of one or more ratios. Which (and how many) ratios to use, what minimum or maximum value to use, and how much importance to give each ratio all present challenges to hte analyst.
When companies use different accounting methods or estimates relating to ares such as invenory accouting, depreciation, capitalization, and off-balance-sheet financing, analysts must adjust the financial statemetns for comparability.
Cash flow forecast:
1. 宏观预测GDP增长值；
2. 相关性分析GDP增长与本公司销售额之间的联系；
3. 估计公司所占的市场份额，乘以整个行业销售额即为预测公司销售额；
4. 在简单的预测模型中，可用一些历史平均或这趋势调整利润率（gross margin, operating margin, and net income）来预测净利润；
5. 在复杂的预测模型中，损益表和资产负债表的每一项目都可以单独估计，分别假设其增长与销售收入增长的关系；
6. 多期间预测，分析师通常简单地假设销售额以一定比例次序增长；
7. 进行现金预测是，分析师必须假设未来现金流的来源与用途，尤其是营运资本，购入新资产的资本花费，举债或偿债，以及发行或回购股票；
8. 预测的基本假设是非现金营运资本占销售额的百分比不变；
9. 初步模型可以预示公司未来的现金需求，这些需求可以在未来通过计划必要的贷款来满足。
现金流预测具体操作注意：
sales*(1 + ?%);
cost of goods sold * ?% of sale
operating expenses * ?% of sale
noncash working capital * ?% of sale
investment in fixed capital * ?% of sale
Credit rating formula can be seperated 4 general categories:
1. Scale and diversification
2. Operatinal efficiency
3. Margin efficiency
4. Leverage
Potentially attractive equity investments can be identifed by screening a universe of stocks using minimum or maximum value of one or more ratios. Which (and how many) ratios to use, what minimum or maximum value to use, and how much importance to give each ratio all present challenges to hte analyst.
When companies use different accounting methods or estimates relating to ares such as invenory accouting, depreciation, capitalization, and off-balance-sheet financing, analysts must adjust the financial statemetns for comparability.
International Standards Convergence
The equity method is used for business combinations when the investor can significantl influence the investee (between 20% and 50% ownership interest). The consolidation method is used when the investor can control the investee (greater than 50% ownership interest). In the case of joint control, proportionate consolidation is preferred under IFRS, but the equity method is required under U.S. GAAP.
Inventory is reported on the balance sheet at the lower of cost or net relizable value under IFRS and at the lower of cost or market under U.S. GAAP. A recovery of value subsequent to a writtedown can be recognized under IFRS but not under U.S. GAAP.
Under IFRS, the value of property and equipment and identifiable intangible assets can be revalued upward, but under U.S. GAAP, they cannot.
When the firm cannot reliably estimate the outcome of a project, it recognizes costs as revenue to the extent they are likely recoverable, but firms reporting under U.S. GAAP must use the completed contract method.
THe LIFO inventory cost method is permitted by U.S. GAAP but is prohibited under IFRS.
IFRS requires the depreciation method to allocate an asset's cost systematically over its useful life and reflect the pattern of asset consumption.
IFRS does not permit firms to treat items as "extraordinary items" on the income statement as they can under U.S. GAAP.
Under U.S. GAAP, individual paid are financing activities while interest paid or received and dividends received are operating activities. Under IFRS, dividends and interest paid can be reported as either operating activities or financing activities. Interest received and dividends received can be reported as either operating activities or financing activites. Interest received and dividends received can be reported as either operating activities or investing activities.
To compare financila statement ratios of firms reproting under U.S. GAAP and IFRS, an analyst must adjust the data for one of the firms to make the financial statements comparable.
Inventory is reported on the balance sheet at the lower of cost or net relizable value under IFRS and at the lower of cost or market under U.S. GAAP. A recovery of value subsequent to a writtedown can be recognized under IFRS but not under U.S. GAAP.
Under IFRS, the value of property and equipment and identifiable intangible assets can be revalued upward, but under U.S. GAAP, they cannot.
When the firm cannot reliably estimate the outcome of a project, it recognizes costs as revenue to the extent they are likely recoverable, but firms reporting under U.S. GAAP must use the completed contract method.
THe LIFO inventory cost method is permitted by U.S. GAAP but is prohibited under IFRS.
IFRS requires the depreciation method to allocate an asset's cost systematically over its useful life and reflect the pattern of asset consumption.
IFRS does not permit firms to treat items as "extraordinary items" on the income statement as they can under U.S. GAAP.
Under U.S. GAAP, individual paid are financing activities while interest paid or received and dividends received are operating activities. Under IFRS, dividends and interest paid can be reported as either operating activities or financing activities. Interest received and dividends received can be reported as either operating activities or financing activites. Interest received and dividends received can be reported as either operating activities or investing activities.
To compare financila statement ratios of firms reproting under U.S. GAAP and IFRS, an analyst must adjust the data for one of the firms to make the financial statements comparable.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Financial Reporting Quality: Red Flages and Accounting Warning Signs
Management may be motivated to overstate net income to:
1. Meet earnings expectations.
2. Remain in compliance with lending covenants.
3. Receive higher incentive compensation.
Management ma be motivated to underreport earnings to:
1. Obtain trade relief in the form of quotas or protective tariffs.
2. Negotiate favorable terms from creditors.
3. Negotiate favorable labor union contracts.
Low quality earnings are th result of:
1. Selecting acceptable accounting principles that misrepresent the economics of a transaction.
2. Structuring transactions to achieve a desired outcome.
3. Using aggressive or unrealistic estimates and assumptions.
4. Exploiting the intent of an accounting principle.
1. Meet earnings expectations.
2. Remain in compliance with lending covenants.
3. Receive higher incentive compensation.
Management ma be motivated to underreport earnings to:
1. Obtain trade relief in the form of quotas or protective tariffs.
2. Negotiate favorable terms from creditors.
3. Negotiate favorable labor union contracts.
Low quality earnings are th result of:
1. Selecting acceptable accounting principles that misrepresent the economics of a transaction.
2. Structuring transactions to achieve a desired outcome.
3. Using aggressive or unrealistic estimates and assumptions.
4. Exploiting the intent of an accounting principle.
Accounting Shenanigans on the Cash Flow Statement
Cash Flow Manipulation:
1. Stretching Accounts Payable
应付账款延展期实质是通过延长付款周期要求供应商提供融资。发现方法是计算各个周期如/年，/嫉妒，/月的应付账款周期进行比较，看是否周期过度延长，其公式如下：
days' sales in accounts payable = (accounts payable / COGS) * 365
2. Financing Accounts Payable
融资型应付账款，通俗解释为公司委托第三方金融机构在公司和供应商确定的付款周期下，由第三方金融机构对供应商周期性结算，而公司在更迟一些天数支付应付账款本金和利息于第三方金融机构。由于第三方金融机构是一短期借款方式处理，这样导致企业的经营性现金流减少而融资性现金流增大。其实质和应付账款延展期类似，唯一不同的是第三方介入。
3. Securitizing Accounts Receivable
应收账款证券化，即将应收账款以证券的形式抵押或者出售给special purpose entity (SPE) 从而可以加速现金流的变现。对卖出应收账款所得到的款项应计入经营性现金流而不是融资性现金流，若计入CFO中的主营业务收入的话，则处理非常激进；若计入抵消营业支出的话，则次激进，最保守的方法是计入其他非营业收入。
Repurchasing Stock to offset Dilution
对冲摊销的回购股票机制。企业股价上升，持有低廉期权者倾向行使期权，企业被强迫发行更多股票造成EPS被稀释，为了避免，企业通过回购股票来操作现金流。对于对避免稀释股票无关的回购股票，应该分出融资性现金流，计入经营性现金流确认现金流出。
1. Stretching Accounts Payable
应付账款延展期实质是通过延长付款周期要求供应商提供融资。发现方法是计算各个周期如/年，/嫉妒，/月的应付账款周期进行比较，看是否周期过度延长，其公式如下：
days' sales in accounts payable = (accounts payable / COGS) * 365
2. Financing Accounts Payable
融资型应付账款，通俗解释为公司委托第三方金融机构在公司和供应商确定的付款周期下，由第三方金融机构对供应商周期性结算，而公司在更迟一些天数支付应付账款本金和利息于第三方金融机构。由于第三方金融机构是一短期借款方式处理，这样导致企业的经营性现金流减少而融资性现金流增大。其实质和应付账款延展期类似，唯一不同的是第三方介入。
3. Securitizing Accounts Receivable
应收账款证券化，即将应收账款以证券的形式抵押或者出售给special purpose entity (SPE) 从而可以加速现金流的变现。对卖出应收账款所得到的款项应计入经营性现金流而不是融资性现金流，若计入CFO中的主营业务收入的话，则处理非常激进；若计入抵消营业支出的话，则次激进，最保守的方法是计入其他非营业收入。
Repurchasing Stock to offset Dilution
对冲摊销的回购股票机制。企业股价上升，持有低廉期权者倾向行使期权，企业被强迫发行更多股票造成EPS被稀释，为了避免，企业通过回购股票来操作现金流。对于对避免稀释股票无关的回购股票，应该分出融资性现金流，计入经营性现金流确认现金流出。
Friday, April 23, 2010
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Inventories
COGS = Beginning Inventory + Purcahase - Ending Inventory
Product Costs:
Purchase cost.
Conversion costs.
Allocation of fixed production overhead based on normal capacity levels.
Other costs necessary to bring the inventory to its present location and condition.
Period costs:
Unallocated portion of fixed production overhead.
Abnormal waste of materials, labor, or overhead.
Storage costs (unless required as part of the production process).
Administrative overhead.
Selling costs
存货在U.S. GAAP 和 IFRS 的规定下是不同的。总体来讲是孰低法计价。Under U.S. GAAP, original cost 和 replacement cost 比高低；under IFRS, net realizable value 和 original cost 比高低。GAAP下不能 write-up。
Inventory method:
Specific identification method
FIFO method
LIFO method
Weighted average cost method
FIFO 比较接近更新成本，LIFO则不行。
inventory turnover = COGS / average inventory 越高越好
number of days of inventory = 365 / inventory turnover 越低越好
LIFO results in:
higer COGS
lower taxes
lower net income (EBT and EAT)
lower inventory balance
lower working capital (CA - CL)
higher cash flows (less taxes paid out)
FIFO results in:
lower taxes
higherr taxes
higher net income (EBT and EAT)
higher inventory balance
higher working capital (CA - CL)
lower cash flows (more tax paid out)
Profitability: LIFO
Activity (current ratio): LIFO
FIFO inventory = LIFO inventory + LIFO reserve
FIFO COGS = LIFO COGS - (ending LIFO reserve - beginning LIFO reserve)
LIFO liquidation (后进先出法清算) occurs when a LIFO firm's inventory quantities are declining. In this situation, the older, lower costs are now included in COGS. The result is higher profit margins and higher income taxes.
*LIFO 最敏感，涨价和降价对他的影响都比FIFO剧烈。
Product Costs:
Purchase cost.
Conversion costs.
Allocation of fixed production overhead based on normal capacity levels.
Other costs necessary to bring the inventory to its present location and condition.
Period costs:
Unallocated portion of fixed production overhead.
Abnormal waste of materials, labor, or overhead.
Storage costs (unless required as part of the production process).
Administrative overhead.
Selling costs
存货在U.S. GAAP 和 IFRS 的规定下是不同的。总体来讲是孰低法计价。Under U.S. GAAP, original cost 和 replacement cost 比高低；under IFRS, net realizable value 和 original cost 比高低。GAAP下不能 write-up。
Inventory method:
Specific identification method
FIFO method
LIFO method
Weighted average cost method
FIFO 比较接近更新成本，LIFO则不行。
inventory turnover = COGS / average inventory 越高越好
number of days of inventory = 365 / inventory turnover 越低越好
LIFO results in:
higer COGS
lower taxes
lower net income (EBT and EAT)
lower inventory balance
lower working capital (CA - CL)
higher cash flows (less taxes paid out)
FIFO results in:
lower taxes
higherr taxes
higher net income (EBT and EAT)
higher inventory balance
higher working capital (CA - CL)
lower cash flows (more tax paid out)
Profitability: LIFO
Activity (current ratio): LIFO
FIFO inventory = LIFO inventory + LIFO reserve
FIFO COGS = LIFO COGS - (ending LIFO reserve - beginning LIFO reserve)
LIFO liquidation (后进先出法清算) occurs when a LIFO firm's inventory quantities are declining. In this situation, the older, lower costs are now included in COGS. The result is higher profit margins and higher income taxes.
*LIFO 最敏感，涨价和降价对他的影响都比FIFO剧烈。
Cash Flow Statement
Cash Flow Statement ptobifrd ingotmsyion beyond that available from the income statement, which is based on accrual, rather than cash, accounting. The cash flow statement provides:
1. Information about a company's cash receipts and cash payments during an accounting period.
2. Information about a company's opearing, investing, and financing activities.
3. An understanding of the impact of accrual accounting events on cash flows.
An analyst can use the statement of cash flows to determine whether:
1. Regular operations generate enough cash to sustain the business.
2. Enough cash is generated to pay off existing debts as they mature.
3. The firm is likely to need additional financing
4. Unexpected obligations can be met.
5. The firm can take advantage of new business opportunities as they raise.
Items on the cash flow statement come from 2 source
1. Income statement items.
2. Changes in balance sheet accounts.
Cash Flow Classification:
Performance ratio
Cash flow-to-revenue = CFO / Revenue
Cash return-on-assets = CFO / average total assets
Cash return-on-equity = CFO / average total equity
Cash-to-income = CFO / Operating income
Cash flow per share = (CFO - preferred dividends) / (weighted average number of common shares)
Coverage ratios
Debt coverage = CFO / total debt
Interest coverage = (CFO + interest paid + tax paid) / interest paid
Reinvestment = CFO / cash paid for long term assets
Debt payment = CFO / cash long-term debt repayment
Dividend payment = CFO / dividends paid
Investing and Financing = CFO / cash outflows from investing and financing activities
1. Information about a company's cash receipts and cash payments during an accounting period.
2. Information about a company's opearing, investing, and financing activities.
3. An understanding of the impact of accrual accounting events on cash flows.
An analyst can use the statement of cash flows to determine whether:
1. Regular operations generate enough cash to sustain the business.
2. Enough cash is generated to pay off existing debts as they mature.
3. The firm is likely to need additional financing
4. Unexpected obligations can be met.
5. The firm can take advantage of new business opportunities as they raise.
Items on the cash flow statement come from 2 source
1. Income statement items.
2. Changes in balance sheet accounts.
Cash Flow Classification:
Operating cash flow + investing cash flow + financing cash flow = change in cash balance + beginning cash balance = ending cash flow
Beginning inventory balance + inventory purchase - COGS = Ending inventory balance
Cash paid for new asset = ending gross assets + gross cost of old assets sold - beginning gross assets
Cash from asset sold = book value of the asset + gain/ - losses on sale
Net cash flows from creditors = new borrowings - principal amounts repaid
Net cash flows from shareholders = new equity issued - share repurchases - cash dividends paid
The steps in calculating CFO under the indirect method can be summarized as:
- Begin with net income.
- Subtract gains or add losses that resulted from financing or investing cash flows (such as gains from sale of land).
- Add back all noncash charges to income (such as depreciation and amortization) and subtract all noncash components of revenue.
- add or subtract changes to balance sheet operating accounts as follows:
- Increases in the operating asset accounts (uses of cash) are substracted, while decrease (sources of cash) are added.
- Increases in the operating liability accounts (sources of cash) are added, while decreases (use of cash) are subtracted.
Converting indirect method to direct method:
Cash collections from customers:
- Begin with net sales from the income statement.
- Subtract (add) any increase (decrease) in the accounts receivable balance as reported in the indirect method.
- Add (subtract) an increase (decrease) in unearned revenue.
Csh payments to suppliers:
- Begin with COGS as reported in the income statement.
- If depreciation and/or amortization have been included in COGS (they increase COGS), these items must be added back to COGS when computing the cash paid to suppliers.
- Reduce (increase) COGS by any increase (decrease) in the accounts payable balance as reported in the indirect method.
- Add (subtract) any increase (decrease) in the inventory balance as disclosed in the indirect method.
- Subtract an inventory write-off that occurred during the period.
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) is the cash available to all investors, both equity owners and debt holders.
FCFF = NI + NCC + [Int * (1- tax rate)] - FCInv - WCInv
- NI = net income
- NCC = noncash charges (depreciation and amortization)
- Int = interest expense
- FCInv = fixed capital investment (net capital expenditures)
- WCInv = working capital investment
FCFF = CFO + [Int * (1 - tax rate)] - FCInv
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) is the cash flow that would be available for distribution to common shareholders.
FCFE = CFO - FCInv + Net borrowing (debt issued - debt repaid)
Performance ratio
Cash flow-to-revenue = CFO / Revenue
Cash return-on-assets = CFO / average total assets
Cash return-on-equity = CFO / average total equity
Cash-to-income = CFO / Operating income
Cash flow per share = (CFO - preferred dividends) / (weighted average number of common shares)
Coverage ratios
Debt coverage = CFO / total debt
Interest coverage = (CFO + interest paid + tax paid) / interest paid
Reinvestment = CFO / cash paid for long term assets
Debt payment = CFO / cash long-term debt repayment
Dividend payment = CFO / dividends paid
Investing and Financing = CFO / cash outflows from investing and financing activities
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Special Topic: Cost Included in Inventory and Inventory Write-down/up
Cost Included in Inventory
Product costs (capitalized costs) = Raw Material + Coversion Costs + Allocated Fixed Overhead (based on normal capacity level)+ Freight-in (other costs necessary to bring the inventory to its present location and condition)
Inventory Write-down/up
Original cost ................ $210
Estimated selling price $225
Estimated selling costs $22
Net realizable value .... $203
Replacement cost ........ $197
Normal profit margin $12
What are the per-unit carry value of inventory under IFRS and under U.S. GAAP?
Under IFRS, inventory is reported on the balance sheet at the lower of cost or net realizable value. Since orignial cost of $210 exceeds net realizable value ($225-$22 = $203), the inventory is written down to the net realizable value (NRV) of $203 and a $7 loss ($203 net realizable value -$210 original cost) is reported in the income statement.
Under U.S. GAAP, inventory is reported at the lower of cost or market. In this case, market is equal to replacement cost of $197, since net realizable value of $203 is greater than replaement cost, and net realizable value minus a normal profit margin (replacement cost), the inventory is written down to $197 and $13 loss ($197 replacement cost - $210 original cost) is reported in the income statement.
Assume that in the year after the writedown in the above example, next realizable value and replacement cost both increase by $10. What's the impact of the recovery under IFRS and under U.S. GAAP?
Under IFRS, the inventory should be written up to $210 ($210 original cost < $213 NRV) per unit and recognize a $7 gain in its income statement. The wrte-up (gain) is limited to the original writedown of $7. The carry value cannot exceed original cost.
Under U.S. GAAP, no write-up is allowed. The per-unit carrying value will remain at $197. it will simply recognize higher profit when the inventory si sold.
Product costs (capitalized costs) = Raw Material + Coversion Costs + Allocated Fixed Overhead (based on normal capacity level)+ Freight-in (other costs necessary to bring the inventory to its present location and condition)
Inventory Write-down/up
Original cost ................ $210
Estimated selling price $225
Estimated selling costs $22
Net realizable value .... $203
Replacement cost ........ $197
Normal profit margin $12
What are the per-unit carry value of inventory under IFRS and under U.S. GAAP?
Under IFRS, inventory is reported on the balance sheet at the lower of cost or net realizable value. Since orignial cost of $210 exceeds net realizable value ($225-$22 = $203), the inventory is written down to the net realizable value (NRV) of $203 and a $7 loss ($203 net realizable value -$210 original cost) is reported in the income statement.
Under U.S. GAAP, inventory is reported at the lower of cost or market. In this case, market is equal to replacement cost of $197, since net realizable value of $203 is greater than replaement cost, and net realizable value minus a normal profit margin (replacement cost), the inventory is written down to $197 and $13 loss ($197 replacement cost - $210 original cost) is reported in the income statement.
Assume that in the year after the writedown in the above example, next realizable value and replacement cost both increase by $10. What's the impact of the recovery under IFRS and under U.S. GAAP?
Under IFRS, the inventory should be written up to $210 ($210 original cost < $213 NRV) per unit and recognize a $7 gain in its income statement. The wrte-up (gain) is limited to the original writedown of $7. The carry value cannot exceed original cost.
Under U.S. GAAP, no write-up is allowed. The per-unit carrying value will remain at $197. it will simply recognize higher profit when the inventory si sold.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Balance Sheet
Assets = Liabilities + Equity
Common Balance Sheet Assets Accounts:
Cash and cash equivlents
Accounts receivable
Inventory
Prepaid Expense
Investment
Property, plant and equipment
Intangible assets
Deferred tax assets
Pension assets
Common Balance Sheet Liabilities Accounts:
Accounts payable
Accrued expenses
Unearned revenue
Nots payable
Bonds payable
Deferred tax liabilities
Pension liabilities
Common Balance Sheet Equity Accounts:
Capital Stocks
Additional paid-in-capital 资本公积
Treasury stock 库存股
Retained earnings
Acumulated other comprehensive income
Account format:左边资产，右边负债和权益
Report format: 自上而下，资产-负债-所有者权益
Classified balance sheet: 分为长期(long term)和流动(current)记账分类加总
Current assets/liabilities
working capital = current assets - current liabilities
Noncurrent assets/liabilities
If a firm has a controlling interest in a subsidiary that is not 100% owned, the parent reports a minority (noncontrolling) interest in its consolidated balance sheet. the minority interest is the pro-rata share of the subsidiary's net assets (equity) not owned by the parent company.
少数股东权益按IFRS规定应列示合作报表的权益部分，但美国GAAP下规定可以列示与资产负债表的负债，所有者权益部分或这介于负债与所有者权益的"夹层区(mezzanine section)"
Historical costs 历史成本
Faire value 公允价
The finanical statement footnotes should include the following information about the measurement of the firm's assets and liabilities:
Basis for measurement
Carrying value of inventory by category
Amount o finventory carried at fair value less costs to sell
Write-downs and reversals, with a discussion o the circumstances that led to them
Inventories pledged as collateral for liabilities
Inventories recognized as an expense
Current assets: cash and equivalents, accounts receivable, inventories, marketable securities and other current assets including prepaid expenses.
Common Balance Sheet Assets Accounts:
Cash and cash equivlents
Accounts receivable
Inventory
Prepaid Expense
Investment
Property, plant and equipment
Intangible assets
Deferred tax assets
Pension assets
Common Balance Sheet Liabilities Accounts:
Accounts payable
Accrued expenses
Unearned revenue
Nots payable
Bonds payable
Deferred tax liabilities
Pension liabilities
Common Balance Sheet Equity Accounts:
Capital Stocks
Additional paid-in-capital 资本公积
Treasury stock 库存股
Retained earnings
Acumulated other comprehensive income
Account format:左边资产，右边负债和权益
Report format: 自上而下，资产-负债-所有者权益
Classified balance sheet: 分为长期(long term)和流动(current)记账分类加总
Current assets/liabilities
working capital = current assets - current liabilities
Noncurrent assets/liabilities
If a firm has a controlling interest in a subsidiary that is not 100% owned, the parent reports a minority (noncontrolling) interest in its consolidated balance sheet. the minority interest is the pro-rata share of the subsidiary's net assets (equity) not owned by the parent company.
少数股东权益按IFRS规定应列示合作报表的权益部分，但美国GAAP下规定可以列示与资产负债表的负债，所有者权益部分或这介于负债与所有者权益的"夹层区(mezzanine section)"
Historical costs 历史成本
Faire value 公允价
The finanical statement footnotes should include the following information about the measurement of the firm's assets and liabilities:
Basis for measurement
Carrying value of inventory by category
Amount o finventory carried at fair value less costs to sell
Write-downs and reversals, with a discussion o the circumstances that led to them
Inventories pledged as collateral for liabilities
Inventories recognized as an expense
Current assets: cash and equivalents, accounts receivable, inventories, marketable securities and other current assets including prepaid expenses.
Special Topic : Basic EPS Vs. Diluted EPS
EPS is one of the most commonly used corporate profitability performance measures for publicly-traded firms.
Simple capital structure contains no potentially dilutive securities.
Complex capital structure contains potentially dilutive securities such as options, warrants, or convertible securities.
BASIC EPS
.....................................Net income - preferred dividens
Basic EPS = ----------------------------------------------------------------
.....................Weighted aver. # of common shares outstanding
The weighted average number of common shares is the number of shares outstanding during the year, weighted by the portion of the year they were outstanding.
A company issued 1000 shares of new stocks in Jan 1st, and then it issued 2000 shares in Apr 1st, then it issued 5000 shares in Jul 1st, finally it issued 10000 shares in Sep 1st, calculate the weighted average number of common shares A company actually issued. A company has net income $40000, and paid $10000 cash dividends to its preferred shareholders, calculate the EPS of Company A.
1000*12=12000
2000*9=18000
5000*6=30000
10000*3=30000
------------------
Total: 90000 shares
Weighted average shares = 90000 / 12 = 7500
Basic EPS = ($40000 - $10000) / 7500 = $4
DILUTED EPS
Dilutive securities are stock options, warrants, convertible debt, or convertible preferred stock that would decrease EPS if exercised or converted to common stock.
Antidilutive securities are stock options, warrants, convertible debt, or convertible preferred stock that would increase EPS if exercised or converted to common stock.
原则：只有这些期权，可转换证券单一列出来能够稀释基础EPS才能将其加入稀释EPS的计算中，否则在单一计算中否决加入，整体计算则要看最终结果，对单一期权和可转换证券不予考察。
Diluted EPS = [(net income - preferred dividends) + (convertible preferred dividends) + (convertible debt interest)(1-t)] / [(weighted average shares) + (shares from conversion of conv. pfd. shares) + (shares from conversion of conv. debt) + (shares issuable from stock options)]
单一考察公司所含的期权和可转换证券是否稀释EPS，可用公式中拆解出来的指数：
可转换债券： [(convertible debt interest)(1-t)] / (convertible debt shares)
可转换优先股：(convertible preferred dividends) / (convertible preferred shares)
计算看涨期权(options)转换普通股数的简单方法
[(AMP - EP) / AMP] * N
AMP = average market price over the year
EP = exercise price of the options or warrants
N = number of common shares that the options and warrants can be converted into
Simple capital structure contains no potentially dilutive securities.
Complex capital structure contains potentially dilutive securities such as options, warrants, or convertible securities.
BASIC EPS
.....................................Net income - preferred dividens
Basic EPS = ----------------------------------------------------------------
.....................Weighted aver. # of common shares outstanding
The weighted average number of common shares is the number of shares outstanding during the year, weighted by the portion of the year they were outstanding.
A company issued 1000 shares of new stocks in Jan 1st, and then it issued 2000 shares in Apr 1st, then it issued 5000 shares in Jul 1st, finally it issued 10000 shares in Sep 1st, calculate the weighted average number of common shares A company actually issued. A company has net income $40000, and paid $10000 cash dividends to its preferred shareholders, calculate the EPS of Company A.
1000*12=12000
2000*9=18000
5000*6=30000
10000*3=30000
------------------
Total: 90000 shares
Weighted average shares = 90000 / 12 = 7500
Basic EPS = ($40000 - $10000) / 7500 = $4
DILUTED EPS
Dilutive securities are stock options, warrants, convertible debt, or convertible preferred stock that would decrease EPS if exercised or converted to common stock.
Antidilutive securities are stock options, warrants, convertible debt, or convertible preferred stock that would increase EPS if exercised or converted to common stock.
原则：只有这些期权，可转换证券单一列出来能够稀释基础EPS才能将其加入稀释EPS的计算中，否则在单一计算中否决加入，整体计算则要看最终结果，对单一期权和可转换证券不予考察。
Diluted EPS = [(net income - preferred dividends) + (convertible preferred dividends) + (convertible debt interest)(1-t)] / [(weighted average shares) + (shares from conversion of conv. pfd. shares) + (shares from conversion of conv. debt) + (shares issuable from stock options)]
单一考察公司所含的期权和可转换证券是否稀释EPS，可用公式中拆解出来的指数：
可转换债券： [(convertible debt interest)(1-t)] / (convertible debt shares)
可转换优先股：(convertible preferred dividends) / (convertible preferred shares)
计算看涨期权(options)转换普通股数的简单方法
[(AMP - EP) / AMP] * N
AMP = average market price over the year
EP = exercise price of the options or warrants
N = number of common shares that the options and warrants can be converted into
Thursday, April 15, 2010
今天是值得纪念的一天
据悉：
北海舰队7艘已到达南沙海域（新闻是说长途拉练训练）亚丁湾回航分舰队到达马尼拉（昨天新闻说回航舰队访问马尼拉，有新青年舰队防空舰）东海舰队10艘已接近南海海域（其中两艘现代、两艘基洛，舰队已过琉球海域，日媒体说往南方进发）总数20艘TG战舰在南海集结。
日本公布的照片显示，115出现在穿越冲绳本岛与宫古岛之间南下的以东海舰队为主力的海军编队中。而116则率领北海舰队为主的海军编队出现在马六甲以东的南海。
南下编队有驱、护、常潜、补，北海舰队有驱、核潜、补；
设想下，两支编队会不会在南海进行TG从来没有过的大规模的编队海上对抗演练？或者525编队会不会与南下的东海舰队编队在南海某点汇合？
另外大部海军现代舰只都开始返港大修。
有生以来能听到这种消息，这正代表着中国这个大陆文明的国家正在向海岚探索，这种敢于挑战危险，勇于承担责任的精神，为我中华文明之骄傲。
个人认为这次大规模高调集结另外一个重要原因是祖国的“施琅”号(原俄罗斯瓦良格号)航空母舰即将下水，主要为航母战斗群组织排列做演练。
另外，青海玉树大地震到目前为止已有760人丧生，11477人伤，243人失踪，胡锦涛访为美国出席46国核峰会提前启程回国，人民币升值和汇率问题前途未卜，在这内忧外患的危及之下，相信祖国能够一如既往，逢凶化吉，战胜一切困难。
北海舰队7艘已到达南沙海域（新闻是说长途拉练训练）亚丁湾回航分舰队到达马尼拉（昨天新闻说回航舰队访问马尼拉，有新青年舰队防空舰）东海舰队10艘已接近南海海域（其中两艘现代、两艘基洛，舰队已过琉球海域，日媒体说往南方进发）总数20艘TG战舰在南海集结。
日本公布的照片显示，115出现在穿越冲绳本岛与宫古岛之间南下的以东海舰队为主力的海军编队中。而116则率领北海舰队为主的海军编队出现在马六甲以东的南海。
南下编队有驱、护、常潜、补，北海舰队有驱、核潜、补；
设想下，两支编队会不会在南海进行TG从来没有过的大规模的编队海上对抗演练？或者525编队会不会与南下的东海舰队编队在南海某点汇合？
另外大部海军现代舰只都开始返港大修。
有生以来能听到这种消息，这正代表着中国这个大陆文明的国家正在向海岚探索，这种敢于挑战危险，勇于承担责任的精神，为我中华文明之骄傲。
个人认为这次大规模高调集结另外一个重要原因是祖国的“施琅”号(原俄罗斯瓦良格号)航空母舰即将下水，主要为航母战斗群组织排列做演练。
另外，青海玉树大地震到目前为止已有760人丧生，11477人伤，243人失踪，胡锦涛访为美国出席46国核峰会提前启程回国，人民币升值和汇率问题前途未卜，在这内忧外患的危及之下，相信祖国能够一如既往，逢凶化吉，战胜一切困难。
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Income Statement
Revenue - Expense = net income
Multi-step income statement
Revenue - COGS = Gross Profit
Gross Profit - Selling, General, and Administrative Expense- Depreciation = Operating Profit
Operating Profit - Interest Expense = Income Before Tax
Income Before Tax - Tax Provision = Income from Continuing Operations
Income from Contnuing Operations - Earnings/losses from Disconitinued operations, net of tax = Net Income
The SEC provides additional guidance by listing 4 criteria to determine whether revenue should be recognized:
1. There is evidence of an arrangement between the buyer and seller.
2. The product has been delivered or the service has been rendered.
3. The price is determined or determinable.
4. The seller is reasonably sure of collecting money.
Long term contract:
Percentage-of-completion method vs. Completed-contract method
Installment method vs. Cost recovery method (similar with above)
Users of financial information must consider 3 points when analyzing a firm's revenue:
1. How conservative are the firm's revenue recognition policies?
2. he extent to which the firm's policy on judgment and estimates.
*period costs aer the expenses that can't be directly ried to revenue generation.
Depreciation:
1. Straight-line depreciation (SL)
SL Depreciation expense = (Cost - Residual Value) / Useful Life
2. Accelerated depreciation method
Declining Balance Method (DB)
Double Declining Balance Method (DDB)
DDB depreciation = (2 / useful life )(cost - accumulated depreciation)
*注意题中给出的残值，倒数第2年求得的折旧>最后一年要求的残值。最后一年的折旧就成 倒数第2年的残值 - 既定残值
Inventory:
1. Specific identification method
2. FIFO
3. LIFO
4. Weighted average cost
Nonrecurring items:
Discontinued operations
企业的某项经营业务已经能够以出售，废弃，拆除或其他方式予以处置；或该项营业虽仍在经营，但已有计划将其进行处置。将其放在持续经营项目(continuing operation)之后，非常项目(extraordinary item)之前。
Unusual or infrequent items
非正常或者非经常项目。如固定资产盘盈盈亏，资产处置的净收益/损失，资产报废，资产减记，重组成本。
Extraordinary items
非常项目，即非正常和非经常发生的项目。如资产损失，天灾损失，和提早偿还债务所产生的损益。此项目需在利润表中持续经营利润之后单独列示税后净额。
EPS的讲解另开专题
Gross profit margin = Gross profit / Revenue
Net profit margin = Net income / Revenue
Other comprehensive income:
1. Foreign currency translation gains and losses
2. Adjustments for minimum pension liability
3. Unrealized gains and losses from cash flow hedging derivatives
4. Unrealized gains and losses from available-for-sale securities
Multi-step income statement
Revenue - COGS = Gross Profit
Gross Profit - Selling, General, and Administrative Expense- Depreciation = Operating Profit
Operating Profit - Interest Expense = Income Before Tax
Income Before Tax - Tax Provision = Income from Continuing Operations
Income from Contnuing Operations - Earnings/losses from Disconitinued operations, net of tax = Net Income
The SEC provides additional guidance by listing 4 criteria to determine whether revenue should be recognized:
1. There is evidence of an arrangement between the buyer and seller.
2. The product has been delivered or the service has been rendered.
3. The price is determined or determinable.
4. The seller is reasonably sure of collecting money.
Long term contract:
Percentage-of-completion method vs. Completed-contract method
Installment method vs. Cost recovery method (similar with above)
Users of financial information must consider 3 points when analyzing a firm's revenue:
1. How conservative are the firm's revenue recognition policies?
2. he extent to which the firm's policy on judgment and estimates.
*period costs aer the expenses that can't be directly ried to revenue generation.
Depreciation:
1. Straight-line depreciation (SL)
SL Depreciation expense = (Cost - Residual Value) / Useful Life
2. Accelerated depreciation method
Declining Balance Method (DB)
Double Declining Balance Method (DDB)
DDB depreciation = (2 / useful life )(cost - accumulated depreciation)
*注意题中给出的残值，倒数第2年求得的折旧>最后一年要求的残值。最后一年的折旧就成 倒数第2年的残值 - 既定残值
Inventory:
1. Specific identification method
2. FIFO
3. LIFO
4. Weighted average cost
Nonrecurring items:
Discontinued operations
企业的某项经营业务已经能够以出售，废弃，拆除或其他方式予以处置；或该项营业虽仍在经营，但已有计划将其进行处置。将其放在持续经营项目(continuing operation)之后，非常项目(extraordinary item)之前。
Unusual or infrequent items
非正常或者非经常项目。如固定资产盘盈盈亏，资产处置的净收益/损失，资产报废，资产减记，重组成本。
Extraordinary items
非常项目，即非正常和非经常发生的项目。如资产损失，天灾损失，和提早偿还债务所产生的损益。此项目需在利润表中持续经营利润之后单独列示税后净额。
EPS的讲解另开专题
Gross profit margin = Gross profit / Revenue
Net profit margin = Net income / Revenue
Other comprehensive income:
1. Foreign currency translation gains and losses
2. Adjustments for minimum pension liability
3. Unrealized gains and losses from cash flow hedging derivatives
4. Unrealized gains and losses from available-for-sale securities
Financial Reporting Standards
The two primary standard-setting bodies are the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB)
In U.S. FASB sets forth Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP); Outside the U.S., the IASB establishes International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).
IASB has 4 stated goals:
1. Develop global accounting standards requiring transparency, comparability, and high quality in financial statements.
2. Promote the use of global accounting standards.
3. Account for the needs of emerging markets and small firms when implementing global accounting standards.
4. Achieve convergence between various national accounting standards and global accounting standards.
Most national authorities (监管机构) belong to the International Organization of Securities Commission (IOSCO). 3 objectives of financial market regulation according to IOSCO are to:
(1). Protect investors.
(2). ensure the fairness, efficiency, and transparency of markets.
(3). Reduce systemic risk.
Securities and Exchange Commission Required Filings:
Form S-1, Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, Form DEF-14A, Form 8-K, Form 144, Forms 3, 4, 5.
The IFRS framework describes each of these qualities:
Understandability 可理解性
Comparability 可比较性
Relevance 相关性
Reliability. 可靠性 Specific factors that support reliability include:
Faithful representation of transactions and events 忠实对运营和活动的表述
Substance over form. 超过运营形式的实质
Neutrality 中立
Prudence 谨慎性
Completeness 完整性
Constraints on financial statement preparation
The need to balance reliability 可靠性和及时性之间的寻找平衡
Costs 财务报告的成本是否过大
Intangible and non-quantifiable information about the company can't be captured in financial statement.
The 2 primary assumptions:
Accrual Basis 权责发生制
Going concern assumption 持续经营假设
Under IAS No.1 required financial statements are
Balance Sheet
Income Statement
Cash Flow Statement
Statement of Changes in Owners' Equity
Explanatory notes, including a summary of accounting policies
Under IAS No. 1 Principles for preparing financial statements :
Fair presentation
Going concern basis
Accrual basis
Consistency
Materiality
Under IAS No.1 Principles for presenting financial statements:
必须包括类似项目的归总和不同项目的细分
非特殊情况下，不得用资产对冲负债，收入对冲费用
企业必须发布分类资产负债表，将资产和负债俺流动(current)和长期(long term)分类
财务报表的正彪和辅助必须反映必备的最少信息(minmum information).
非特殊情况下，企业财务报表中必须对较前期数据
Differences between framework of IASB and FASB
构架目的的不同。IASB下，企业管理层可以自己决定会计处理方法，FASB不行.
财务报表目的不同。FASB为非盈利和盈利组织设置不同框架，IASB则只有一个。
假设不同。IASB比较注重持续经营的假设
质量特性不同。FASB注重相关性和可靠性；IASB注重可比较性和可理解性。
财务报告要素不同。
Coherent financial reporting framework:
Transparency
Comprehensiveness
Consistency
Barriers to creating a coherent financial reporting framework:
Valuation
Standard Setting
Measurement
In U.S. FASB sets forth Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP); Outside the U.S., the IASB establishes International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).
IASB has 4 stated goals:
1. Develop global accounting standards requiring transparency, comparability, and high quality in financial statements.
2. Promote the use of global accounting standards.
3. Account for the needs of emerging markets and small firms when implementing global accounting standards.
4. Achieve convergence between various national accounting standards and global accounting standards.
Most national authorities (监管机构) belong to the International Organization of Securities Commission (IOSCO). 3 objectives of financial market regulation according to IOSCO are to:
(1). Protect investors.
(2). ensure the fairness, efficiency, and transparency of markets.
(3). Reduce systemic risk.
Securities and Exchange Commission Required Filings:
Form S-1, Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, Form DEF-14A, Form 8-K, Form 144, Forms 3, 4, 5.
The IFRS framework describes each of these qualities:
Understandability 可理解性
Comparability 可比较性
Relevance 相关性
Reliability. 可靠性 Specific factors that support reliability include:
Faithful representation of transactions and events 忠实对运营和活动的表述
Substance over form. 超过运营形式的实质
Neutrality 中立
Prudence 谨慎性
Completeness 完整性
Constraints on financial statement preparation
The need to balance reliability 可靠性和及时性之间的寻找平衡
Costs 财务报告的成本是否过大
Intangible and non-quantifiable information about the company can't be captured in financial statement.
The 2 primary assumptions:
Accrual Basis 权责发生制
Going concern assumption 持续经营假设
Under IAS No.1 required financial statements are
Balance Sheet
Income Statement
Cash Flow Statement
Statement of Changes in Owners' Equity
Explanatory notes, including a summary of accounting policies
Under IAS No. 1 Principles for preparing financial statements :
Fair presentation
Going concern basis
Accrual basis
Consistency
Materiality
Under IAS No.1 Principles for presenting financial statements:
必须包括类似项目的归总和不同项目的细分
非特殊情况下，不得用资产对冲负债，收入对冲费用
企业必须发布分类资产负债表，将资产和负债俺流动(current)和长期(long term)分类
财务报表的正彪和辅助必须反映必备的最少信息(minmum information).
非特殊情况下，企业财务报表中必须对较前期数据
Differences between framework of IASB and FASB
构架目的的不同。IASB下，企业管理层可以自己决定会计处理方法，FASB不行.
财务报表目的不同。FASB为非盈利和盈利组织设置不同框架，IASB则只有一个。
假设不同。IASB比较注重持续经营的假设
质量特性不同。FASB注重相关性和可靠性；IASB注重可比较性和可理解性。
财务报告要素不同。
Coherent financial reporting framework:
Transparency
Comprehensiveness
Consistency
Barriers to creating a coherent financial reporting framework:
Valuation
Standard Setting
Measurement
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Financial Reporting Mechanics (财务报告机制)
Business Transactions can be classified for financial reporting as operating activities, investing activities, or financing activities.
Financial statement elements are the major classifications of assets, liabilities, owners' equity, revenues, and expenses.
Accounts are the specific records within each element where various transactions are entered.
Classifying Accounts Into he Financial Statement Elements
Assets：
Cash and cash equivalents. 现金和现金等价物，一般为高流动性的在90天内期满的证券
Accounts Receivable. 应付账款
Inventory. 存货
Financial Assets. 如市场证券
Prepaid Expenses. 预付费用，将来被体现在损益表中花费的费用的条目
Property, plant and equipment. 所有权，公司和设备，包括贷销帐或的累计折旧 (Accumulative depreciation)
Investment in affiliates. 隶属公司的投资
Deferred tax assets. 递延税资产，运用不同的折旧方法造成所得税不等，并与未来几年进行摊销
Intangible Assets. 如专利，商业标识，执照和商誉 (patents, trademarks, licenses, and goodwill)
Liabilities:
Accounts payable/trade payable. 应付账款
Financial liabilities. 如短期应付票据 (short-term notes payable)
Unearned revenue. 未实现收入，将来被体现在损益表中的收入条目
Income tax payable. 应付收入税
Long-term debt 长期负债，如应付债券 (bond payable)
Deferred tax liabilities 递延税收负债
Owners' Equity:
Capital. 资本，公司发行股票
Additional paid-in capital. 资本公积：普通股超出面值的溢价收入，回收的股份计入对销账户--库存股 (treasury stock)
retained earnings. 未分配红利
other comprehensive income. 其他综合收益：外汇交易费用，最低养老金负债的调整或者未实现投资收益或损失
Revenue:
Sales. 主营业务收入
Gains. 企业主营业务收入外附加的其他收入
Investment income. 如利息和股利分红
Expenses:
Costs of Goods Sold (COGS). 生产成本
Selling, general, and administrative expense. 营业费用和管理费用：营业费用包括广告费，保险费，展览费等；管理费用包括企业董事会和行政管理部门所发生的管理人员的工资，福利费，咨询费，差旅费，邮电费等
Tax expense. 税金
Interest expense. 利息费用
Loss. 主营业务以外的其他业务带来的资产或者权益的减少
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Assets = Liabilities + Contributed Capital + Beginning Retained Earnings + Revenue - Expense - Dividends
Double-entry accounting is a transaction has to be recorded in at least two accounts.
The principle of accrual accounting requires that revenue is recorded when the firm earns it and expenses are recorded as the firm incurs them regardless of whether cash has actually been paid.
Unearned revenue: 未实现收入 属于负债
Accrued revenue: 应计收入 属于资产
Prepaid expense: 预付费用 属于资产
Accrued expense: 应计收入 属于负债
Journal Entries - 日记账分录
General Journal - 普通日记账
General Ledger - 普通日记总帐
Initial trail balance - 初期试算平衡表
Adjusted trial balance - 调整试算平衡表
Management may attempt to manipulate or misrepresent the company's financial performance.
Financial statement elements are the major classifications of assets, liabilities, owners' equity, revenues, and expenses.
Accounts are the specific records within each element where various transactions are entered.
Classifying Accounts Into he Financial Statement Elements
Assets：
Cash and cash equivalents. 现金和现金等价物，一般为高流动性的在90天内期满的证券
Accounts Receivable. 应付账款
Inventory. 存货
Financial Assets. 如市场证券
Prepaid Expenses. 预付费用，将来被体现在损益表中花费的费用的条目
Property, plant and equipment. 所有权，公司和设备，包括贷销帐或的累计折旧 (Accumulative depreciation)
Investment in affiliates. 隶属公司的投资
Deferred tax assets. 递延税资产，运用不同的折旧方法造成所得税不等，并与未来几年进行摊销
Intangible Assets. 如专利，商业标识，执照和商誉 (patents, trademarks, licenses, and goodwill)
Liabilities:
Accounts payable/trade payable. 应付账款
Financial liabilities. 如短期应付票据 (short-term notes payable)
Unearned revenue. 未实现收入，将来被体现在损益表中的收入条目
Income tax payable. 应付收入税
Long-term debt 长期负债，如应付债券 (bond payable)
Deferred tax liabilities 递延税收负债
Owners' Equity:
Capital. 资本，公司发行股票
Additional paid-in capital. 资本公积：普通股超出面值的溢价收入，回收的股份计入对销账户--库存股 (treasury stock)
retained earnings. 未分配红利
other comprehensive income. 其他综合收益：外汇交易费用，最低养老金负债的调整或者未实现投资收益或损失
Revenue:
Sales. 主营业务收入
Gains. 企业主营业务收入外附加的其他收入
Investment income. 如利息和股利分红
Expenses:
Costs of Goods Sold (COGS). 生产成本
Selling, general, and administrative expense. 营业费用和管理费用：营业费用包括广告费，保险费，展览费等；管理费用包括企业董事会和行政管理部门所发生的管理人员的工资，福利费，咨询费，差旅费，邮电费等
Tax expense. 税金
Interest expense. 利息费用
Loss. 主营业务以外的其他业务带来的资产或者权益的减少
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Assets = Liabilities + Contributed Capital + Beginning Retained Earnings + Revenue - Expense - Dividends
Double-entry accounting is a transaction has to be recorded in at least two accounts.
The principle of accrual accounting requires that revenue is recorded when the firm earns it and expenses are recorded as the firm incurs them regardless of whether cash has actually been paid.
Unearned revenue: 未实现收入 属于负债
Accrued revenue: 应计收入 属于资产
Prepaid expense: 预付费用 属于资产
Accrued expense: 应计收入 属于负债
Journal Entries - 日记账分录
General Journal - 普通日记账
General Ledger - 普通日记总帐
Initial trail balance - 初期试算平衡表
Adjusted trial balance - 调整试算平衡表
Management may attempt to manipulate or misrepresent the company's financial performance.
Lie to me <转>
1. 真正的吃惊表情转瞬即逝，超过一秒钟便是假装的；
2. 撒谎者不像惯常理解的那样会回避对方的眼神，反而更需要眼神交流来判断你是否相信他说的话；
3. “你去过她家吗？不，我没有去过她家”，对问题的生硬重复是典型的撒谎；
4. 男性鼻子下方有海绵体，摸鼻子代表想要掩饰某些内容；
5. 手放在眉骨附近表示羞愧；
6. 描述一连串发生的事情，编造都是按时间顺序进行的，能否流利准确地进行倒叙是判断对方是否说谎的标准之一；
7.叙事时眼球向左下方看，这代表大脑在回忆，所说的是真话；而谎言不需要回忆的过程；
8. 说话时单肩耸动，表示对所说的话极不自信，是说谎的表现；
9. 人在害怕时会出现生理逃跑反应———血液从四肢回流到腿部（做好逃跑准备），因此手的体表温度会下降；
10. 明知故问的时候眉毛微微上扬；
11. 如果对方对你的质问表示不屑，通常你的质问会是真的；
12. 假笑眼角是没有皱纹的；
13. 当面部表情两边不对称的时候，极有可能他们的表情是装出来的；
14. 摩挲自己的手，是一种自我安慰的表现。当你不相信你自己所说的话，这样使自己安心；
15. 抿嘴两次，典型的模棱两可；
16. 双手抱胸、退一步——肢体抗议，说明他的话不可信；
17. 虚情假意不会有眨眼；
18. 说谎者在说谎前会眼神飘移，在想好说什么谎后会眼神肯定，如果你冷静的反驳，说谎者会再次出现眼神飘移；
19. 撒谎者面对一个提问，通常会先有点失措，然后借假笑的时间迅速思考，想出一个并不高明的谎言，然后异常坚定地回应。而且，会一直自言自语，越说越多，因为沉默的时候，他觉得别人还在怀疑他；
20. 用到“那个XX”之类的字眼，表示想划清界限；
21. 瞳孔放大：害怕，愤怒，性欲；
22. 五指向上紧贴在身体的一侧：紧张(stop)，激烈的争吵。
谎言并不可怕，只要记住两点，生活会更简单 ——重要的不是他（她）是否撒谎，而是为什么要撒谎；真相和快乐不可兼得。
2. 撒谎者不像惯常理解的那样会回避对方的眼神，反而更需要眼神交流来判断你是否相信他说的话；
3. “你去过她家吗？不，我没有去过她家”，对问题的生硬重复是典型的撒谎；
4. 男性鼻子下方有海绵体，摸鼻子代表想要掩饰某些内容；
5. 手放在眉骨附近表示羞愧；
6. 描述一连串发生的事情，编造都是按时间顺序进行的，能否流利准确地进行倒叙是判断对方是否说谎的标准之一；
7.叙事时眼球向左下方看，这代表大脑在回忆，所说的是真话；而谎言不需要回忆的过程；
8. 说话时单肩耸动，表示对所说的话极不自信，是说谎的表现；
9. 人在害怕时会出现生理逃跑反应———血液从四肢回流到腿部（做好逃跑准备），因此手的体表温度会下降；
10. 明知故问的时候眉毛微微上扬；
11. 如果对方对你的质问表示不屑，通常你的质问会是真的；
12. 假笑眼角是没有皱纹的；
13. 当面部表情两边不对称的时候，极有可能他们的表情是装出来的；
14. 摩挲自己的手，是一种自我安慰的表现。当你不相信你自己所说的话，这样使自己安心；
15. 抿嘴两次，典型的模棱两可；
16. 双手抱胸、退一步——肢体抗议，说明他的话不可信；
17. 虚情假意不会有眨眼；
18. 说谎者在说谎前会眼神飘移，在想好说什么谎后会眼神肯定，如果你冷静的反驳，说谎者会再次出现眼神飘移；
19. 撒谎者面对一个提问，通常会先有点失措，然后借假笑的时间迅速思考，想出一个并不高明的谎言，然后异常坚定地回应。而且，会一直自言自语，越说越多，因为沉默的时候，他觉得别人还在怀疑他；
20. 用到“那个XX”之类的字眼，表示想划清界限；
21. 瞳孔放大：害怕，愤怒，性欲；
22. 五指向上紧贴在身体的一侧：紧张(stop)，激烈的争吵。
谎言并不可怕，只要记住两点，生活会更简单 ——重要的不是他（她）是否撒谎，而是为什么要撒谎；真相和快乐不可兼得。
An Introduction of Finanical Statement Analysis
The rule of financial reporting is described by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) in its "Framework for the Preparation and Presentation of Financial Statements":
"The objective of financial statements is to provide information about the financial position, performance and changes in financial position of an entity that is useful to a wide range of users in making economic decisions."
Financial statement notes (footnotes) include disclosures that provide further details about the information summarized in the financial statements. Footnotes:
"The objective of financial statements is to provide information about the financial position, performance and changes in financial position of an entity that is useful to a wide range of users in making economic decisions."
Financial statement notes (footnotes) include disclosures that provide further details about the information summarized in the financial statements. Footnotes:
- Provide information about accounting methods, assumptions, and estimates used by management.
- Are audited, whereas other disclosures, such as supplementary schedules, are not audited.
- Provide additional information on items such as business acquisitions or disposals, legal actions, employee benefit plans, contingencies and commitments, significant customers, sales to related parties, and segments of the firm.
Supplementary schedules contain:
- Operating income or sales by region or business segment.
- Reserves for an oil and gas company.
- Information about hedging activities and financial instruments
Under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, management is required to provide a report on the company's internal control system that includes the following elements:
- A statement that the firm's management is responsible for implementing and maintaining effective internal controls.
- A description of how management evaluates the internal control system.
- An assessment by management of the effectiveness over the most recent year of the firm's internal controls.
- A statement that the firm's auditors have assessed management's report on internal controls.
- A statement certifying that the firm's financial statements are presented fairly.
Financial Statement analysis framework:
- State the objective and context.
- Gather data.
- Process the data
- Analyze and interpret the data
- Report the conclusions or recommendations
- Update the analysis.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
美国控制中国2/3信用评级市场 威胁国家金融主权 <转自经济参考报 April/12/10>
2010-04-12 作者:《美国渗控我国信用评级业严重威胁国家金融经济安全的研究报告》课题组
编者按：对于信用评级业国人了解得很少，信用评级业到底在国家经济和金融服务体系中有什么特殊作用？这是我们应该迫切了解的。因为它关系到我国的金融主权和国家经济安全。目前，美国正在通过大规模收购中国信用评级机构，试图控制我国信用评级行业。在不到一年的时间里，美国就收购了中国信用评级业的3家龙头企业，控制了我国三分之二以上的信用评级市场，这究竟是为什么？出于对国家经济安全和金融主权的考虑，中央财经领导小组办公室吴红牵头的课题组，对我国信用评级业展开了国际市场和国内市场的调查研究和分析，结论是，美国大规模收购中国信用评级机构正在严重威胁我国的金融主权和国家经济安全。本报将课题报告的部分内容予以刊登。
现状：监管不足 2/3被美国掌控
经过了十多年的长期准备，美国穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉等利用我国在信用评级管理方面的薄弱环节，在几乎没有任何障碍的情况下，长驱直入中国的信用评级市场。
美国评级机构借助被收购公司的分支机构，迅速将触角伸展到全中国，直接或间接从事所有评级和相关业务。
一、我国信用评级市场规模较大的只有四家
中国信用评级行业诞生于20世纪80年代末，是改革开放的产物。最初的评级机构由中国人民银行组建，隶属于各省市的分行系统。20世纪90年代以后，经过几次清理整顿，评级机构开始走向独立运营。1997年，人民银行认定了9家评级公司具有在全国范围内从事企业债券评级的资质。2005年，中国人民银行推动短期融资券市场建设，形成了中诚信、大公、联合、上海新世纪和远东五家具有全国性债券市场评级资质的评级机构。2006年后，上海远东因“福禧短融”事件逐渐淡出市场。经过二十多年的发展和市场洗礼，目前规模较大的全国性评级机构只有大公、中诚信、联合、上海新世纪4家。
二、美国评级机构对我国评级市场的掌控
经过了十多年的长期准备，美国穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉等利用我国在信用评级管理方面的薄弱环节，在几乎没有任何障碍的情况下，长驱直入中国的信用评级市场。
2006年，美国评级机构开始了对中国信用评级机构的全面渗控。2006年，穆迪收购中诚信49%股权并接管了经营权，同时约定七年后持股51%，实现绝对控股。同年，新华财经(美国控制)公司收购上海远东62%的股权，实现了对该机构的直接控制。2007年，惠誉收购了联合资信 49%的股权并接管经营权；标准普尔也与上海新世纪开始了战略合作，双方亦在商谈合资事宜。穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉三大评级公司也都曾与大公洽谈合资，提出对大公控股或控制经营权，穆迪愿意出价3000万美元购买大公控股权，但都遭到拒绝。这样，目前我国四家全国性的信用评级机构除大公始终坚持民族品牌国际化发展外，其余已经或正在被美国控制。
在被美国收购的评级机构中，中诚信、联合在全国各省均设有分公司，他们可以从事国内的所有评级业务，市场份额合计超过2/3以上。美国评级机构借助被收购公司的分支机构，迅速将触角伸展到全中国，直接或间接从事所有评级和相关业务。
三、我国信用评级市场过度开放的原因
我国信用评级市场过度开放的主要原因有以下几点：
(1)对信用评级缺乏了解。信用评级是事关金融产品定价的高端产品，但多数人不了解信用评级对国家经济社会发展和安全的重要性，更多的人根本就不懂评级是什么。这样一种具有普遍性的思想认识基础使得信用评级对我国经济社会发展的深层次重要影响和作用没有引起各方面足够的认识，信用评级业长期处于自生自灭的生存环境中。
(2)盲目迷信外国技术，认为美国评级机构比中国的好。由于对信用评级特殊性的不了解，很多中国人认为信用评级就是一般中介服务，甚至认为按照国际标准，由美国人给中国企业评级更公正、更权威。特别是一些政府管理部门，根本瞧不起中国本土评级机构，而对美国机构却频频安排高规格高级别接待，听取他们的意见。有的政府部门在评级业务的准入标准上明确首选国外机构。
(3)信用评级机构处于无人管理状态，国家尚无明确政策法规限制外国机构进入中国评级市场。迄今为止，中国没有法规明确评级机构归口哪个政府部门管理，有关部门仅依据其业务需要选择用谁的评级结果，是选中资还是外资也无法规和政策依据。中国政府在入世承诺中未包括信用评级业，面对美国机构的凌厉攻势，政府部门找不到政策依据，特别在对评级业对国家的战略影响作用认识不清晰的情况下，没有制定相应的对策，实际上形成了对美国全面开放中国信用评级市场的局面。
(4)持续进行政府高层公关。美国评级机构利用中国人对信用评级不完全了解、崇洋心理以及政府的监管缺位，持续进行政府高层公关，引导高层对外国机构进入中国市场原则表态，以此形成对具体业务部门的心理压力，并向公众传递一种中国政府支持他们进入国内市场的信息。中外评级机构与中国政府决策层接触交流机会的不对等，使得中国政府官员对美国评级业的了解程度远胜于本国。
与此形成对比的是，中资评级机构没有一家在美国境内开展信用评级业务，在亚洲和欧美评级市场上没有中国的评级声音，中国在世界评级界的“话语权”很弱。这种开放的不对等性使得我国民族信用评级业的发展处于不利地位，不利于我国评级业的长远发展。
危害：难以取得金融话语权 丧失大量国家资产
据最新统计，仅2006 年，境外投资者在工、建、中、交等国有银行身上就赚了7500亿，加上从其他中国股份制商业银行享受到的利润，保守估计，外资一年从中国银行业赚取的利润超过1万亿。
中国银行股被贱卖，问题并不在IPO环节，而是出在此前引入战略投资者的定价上。
一、美国评级机构控制我国评级市场将直接威胁国家金融安全
美国评级机构通过对资本市场的控制，就可以直接影响我国的宏观经济，甚至扰乱我国的经济秩序。长时期以来，美国评级机构有意压低我国的信用级别，影响了我国政府和企业的国际形象，增大了海外融资成本。如：2003年底，正值我国银行业谋求海外上市之际，美国标准普尔宣布维持其10年来对中国主权信用评级的BBB级，即“适宜投资”的最低限，而这10年正是我国经济迅速发展、外汇储备稳定增加的10年。还将中国13家商业银行的信用级别都评为不具备投资价值的“垃圾等级”，同时美国评级机构又高调肯定境外投资者参股中国银行，使其在与中国商业银行谈判时压低价格，为国际垄断资本攫取我国的国有资产大开方便之门。据最新统计，仅2006年，境外投资者在工、建、中、交等国有银行身上就赚了7500亿，加上从其他中国股份制商业银行享受到的利润，保守估计，外资一年从中国银行业赚取的利润超过1万亿。世界银行在2007年5月30日公布的《中国经济季报》中明确指出：中国银行股被贱卖，问题并不在IPO环节，而是出在此前引入战略投资者的定价上。较低的入股价格使得境外战略投资者们在中国金融股身上享受着暴利。目前国内专家学者越来越清楚地感受到了我国银行被贱卖造成的损失和危害，但对美国评级机构在其中所起的关键作用却依然没有充分的认识。近年来，美资机构加大了对香港金融市场的渗透与操纵，经常对香港上市的中资企业进行评级，每次都会引起香港股市的震荡。鉴于美国评级机构对香港金融市场的影响与日俱增，2002年7月，香港交易所与标准普尔签署了合作协议，有专家认为，这是香港以金融主权出让，换取美国评级机构“口下留情”，这种做法在当今国际上实属罕见。而美国评级机构正悄然进入中国经济腹地和敏感性行业，通过参与越来越多的中国国内重大债务融资评级，试图控制中国信用评级市场，通过主导中国金融市场定价权的方式渗控我国金融主权，实现其国家战略图谋。
二、美国评级机构控制我国评级市场将严重威胁国家经济技术信息安全
美国信用评级机构渗控我国评级业就可以方便地获取我国的政务信息、国有骨干企业、国防工业和特种行业、乃至国家全面的经济和技术信息，从而掌握我国技术发展动态和重大商业机密，使我国在国际竞争中处于被动地位，这势必从根本上动摇国家的竞争力。事实上，美国评级机构正以所谓“权威”和“公正”招牌参与越来越多的中国重大债务融资评级(包括国防企业和特种行业)，悄然进入我国的经济腹地和敏感性行业，公开窃取中国最有价值的经济技术情报和政务信息。最可悲的是，我们还要为此支付高额服务费用。
三、美国评级机构控制我国评级市场将使中国难以在国际金融服务体系中获得话语权
目前美国在国际金融服务体系中占据了绝对主导地位，在国际金融市场上拥有绝对的话语权和垄断地位。信用评级没有国际标准，美国评级机构代表了美国的意识形态和国家利益，经常通过其拥有的绝对话语权影响和操控国际资本市场，协助美国企业和政府攫取经济和政治利益，成为美国政治和经济强权的新工具。东南亚金融危机酝酿阶段，美国评级机构有如合谋保持沉默，危机爆发后又降级过激，加剧市场恐慌，将金融危机风暴成功拦截在美国之外，使亚洲沦为重灾区，美国本身却成为“安全避风港”。1998年亚太经合组织峰会上，马来西亚总理就此严词批评美国穆迪和美国标普的评级缺乏客观性，在亚洲金融危机中助纣为虐。美国还对反伊战的德国企业连续降级，而对其支持者澳大利亚提升信用级别。事实证明，美国评级机构通过其拥有的绝对话语权影响和操控国际资本市场，经常“在关键时刻发挥关键作用”。
对策：扶持本国评级机构 维护国家金融安全
俄罗斯总理普京宣布建立本土评级机构；马来西亚政府决定凡发行本币债券和银行借款必须由其唯一的本土机构进行评级；韩国加强了双评级管理，规定发债主体必须选择韩国的国家信息和信用评估有限公司作为双评级机构之一；日本政府出资支持其控制的亚洲评级协会扩大日本评级机构在亚洲的影响。
胡锦涛同志在中央政治局第四十三次集体学习时强调：金融越发展越要加强监管。要坚持把金融监管作为金融工作的重中之重。
人们从全球金融危机的经验教训中，才开始认识到美国垄断的评级体系在其“道德风险”控制与“评级标准”方面存在严重的问题。席卷全球的金融危机使世界评级格局正在悄然发生变化。加强评级监管的共识已经形成，越来越多的国家正在制定更为严厉的评级监管法规，着手扶持保护本国评级机构发展，依赖自己的力量维护国家金融安全。如：俄罗斯总理普京宣布建立本土评级机构；马来西亚政府决定凡发行本币债券和银行借款必须由其唯一的本土机构进行评级；韩国加强了双评级管理，规定发债主体必须选择韩国的国家信息和信用评估有限公司作为双评级机构之一；日本政府出资支持其控制的亚洲评级协会扩大日本评级机构在亚洲的影响。这些迹象表明：信用评级正被提升到国家战略层面，通过掌握评级话语权抵制现行不公正的国际评级体系正在成为一种潮流，这就为我国参与后金融危机时代的国际评级规则制定，争取国际评级话语权，创造了一个难得的历史性机遇。建议：
一、培育扶持民族信用评级机构，确保我国在国际金融市场的话语权
中央应将加快发展民族信用评级机构作为国策、并纳入国民经济与金融发展规划，促进社会信用体系发展，使国家信用评级业与我国经济社会发展同步。中国是美国国债的最大债权国，也是世界第二大净债权国，如果没有评级话语权，也就没有人民币国际化进程中的市场定价权。因此，争取国际评级话语权是保护中国核心国家利益的需要。(1)在监管体系上，坚持统一监管与专业监管相结合的原则。明确评级机构的归口管理部门和监管部门(严格市场准入和日常监管标准)。(2)把跨境贸易人民币结算试点和人民币离岸金融业务，与扶持民族评级机构开展国家信用风险评级结合起来，确保民族信用评级机构对境外人民币主权债务工具的评级话语权。(3)制定特殊的政策和措施，扶持民族信用评级机构成长壮大，可选择二至三家有发展潜质的民族评级机构(以国有参股方式)，给予重点扶持。提升国际竞争力，尽快做大做强。使民族评级机构有能力参与国际金融活动，争取应有的金融事务话语权。
二、遏制美国信用评级机构的渗控图谋，捍卫我国的金融主权和国家安全
外资机构可以参与不涉及国家经济技术安全的评级业务，但绝不能允许其主导我国评级市场。目前，美国评级机构可以不受限制地参与我国政府和各类企业(包括金融业、国防工业)的信用评级，必须完善信用评级的相关法律法规。(1) 明确限制外资评级机构不得涉及国家安全的经济领域，如大型国有企业与主要金融机构，以及国防工业(兵器、航天、航空、核工业、船舶)等。(2)我国信用评级市场的对外开放必须坚持对等原则。在批准外资进入中国信用评级市场的同时，我们应该要求其所在国政府承诺对中国评级机构的市场准入。以捍卫我国的金融主权和国家安全。
三、外资机构持股中资信用评级机构的比例最高不得超过25%，对不涉及国家金融、经济技术安全的评级，可采取“双评级”
信用评级业直接决定着资本市场上的定价权和话语权。世界各经济大国都是依靠本国评级机构为国内资本市场提供评级服务。严格控制外资评级机构进入的控股比例。根据我国国情：(1)借鉴外资金融机构投资中资银行的相关规定，外资机构持股中资信用评级机构的比例最高不得超过25%，而且不能直接或间接控制合资企业的经营权。(2)在华独资或中外合资的评级机构，凡是涉及为国外情报机构提供情报的，一经查实，立即取消其在华评级业务。(3)对于不涉及国家经济技术安全的评级应采用“双评级”。也就是说外资评级机构参与不涉及国家经济技术安全的评级，必须有本国的评级机构同时出具评级报告，以保障我国骨干企业进入国际市场时获得公正的待遇。
（课题组顾问：中国国际经济交流中心常务副理事长郑新立，财政部部长助理朱光耀；课题组组长：中央财经领导小组办公室吴红，副组长：国家安全部经济研究中心江涌。）
信用评级的作用
信用评级业是金融体系中特殊的中介服务，是维护国家金融主权的重要力量，代表了一个国家在国际金融服务体系中的国家地位。信用评级是通过对企业和政府的债务偿还风险进行评价，引导金融资本投资和经济决策，它他直接关系到金融产品的定价权，并影响一国信贷市场利率及汇率形成，与国家金融主权和经济安全密切相关。它的定价功能使评级机构掌握着企业和金融市场的生杀大权。美国次债危机证明，信用评级在现代金融体系中的关键作用，一旦信用评级出现问题，将给整个经济金融系统造成严重冲击。1997年，美国穆迪宣布对日本四大券商之一的山一证券降级，直接导致其股价狂跌和倒闭，美国美林公司乘机接管了山一证券，以极少的代价成功进入日本证券市场。2008年席卷全球的金融危机，就是由信用评级引发的一场灾难，在2008年10月22日美国国会听证会上，美国三家评级机构承认他们犯了道德错误，向市场提供了虚假评级信息。迪拜债务危机再次表明，美国主导的信用评级不能有效揭示国际债权债务关系中的风险。目前，加强评级监管已成为许多国家的共识，评级监管已写入G20金融峰会宣言。
美国信用评级占据国际垄断地位
经过了十多年的长期准备，美国穆迪、标准普尔等美国信用评级机构在国际金融服务体系中占据了垄断地位和拥有绝对话语权。信用级别是否客观很大程度上取决于评级机构的立场，美国评级机构渗透了美国的意识形态和国家利益，成为美国持续推行其价值观与政治经济强权的重要工具。而美国资本市场的评级准入限制保证了美国评级机构的垄断地位。
由于拥有全球最多的金融资本，美国金融市场是国际金融市场最重要的组成部分，美国在国际金融服务体系中占据了绝对主导地位。美国评级市场的准入制度使得美国评级机构得以凭借美国强大的金融资本在国际金融市场上拥有了绝对的话语权和垄断地位。
同时，对于国外评级机构试图进入美国市场，虽然没有明确限制的法规条例，美国监管当局对外国评级机构的进入一直持严格限制的态度。日本最大的评级机构R&I从1998年开始申请进入美国评级市场，用了近10年时间，取得了进入美国市场的资格，但要在美国真正开展评级业务尚有许多不成文的限制。
巴塞尔委员会关于银行监管的法规中有一条新规定：评级机构对银行的信用等级评定，将决定银行法定准备金数额的多少。这些规则的制定和推广使用，加强了美国评级公司的强权地位，美国评级公司实际上已经成为国际资本市场的监管者，但是在国际社会上还没有一个机构来监督美国的评级机构。
美国评级机构采取的是双重标准
美国评级机构的双重标准表现为两方面：一方面，在美国本土评级时，主要依据被评估公司自身或经美国会计公司发布的财务报告，但是，对于美国以外的企业，除少数进行“自愿评估”(需要付费)外，大多数则依据评级机构的独立评估。另一方面，对美国本土市场存在的问题经常视而不见，而对他国尤其是美国不喜欢的国家的资本市场动态往往“明察秋毫”。在1995年英国巴林银行破产的同时，美国银行的金融衍生品市场不良投资高达23万亿美元，美国评级机构都不曾降低美国银行的信誉等级。从“9·11”袭击，到安然等巨型企业的财务丑闻，到众多华尔街股票分析师不法行为连续曝光，再到2003年11月摩根大通等华尔街知名银行的金融欺诈，直至伊拉克战争与持续恐怖袭击威胁等等，美国资本市场遭遇一次又一次冲击与持续威胁，国际资本纷纷逃离美国，但是美国评级机构都没有也不打算降低美国的主权评级。
信用评级业在世界各国受到严格控制
由于认识到信用评级的特殊性，世界各主要经济大国如日本、韩国、印度、瑞典、俄罗斯等都主要依靠本国评级机构来维护国内资本市场的安全。各国大力发展本土民族信用评级机构以保护国家利益，对外国评级机构的入境大多持限制态度，即使允许外资进入，也是严格限制其控股比例。例如在日本和韩国，美国评级机构的市场占有率没有超过20%；日本企业评级必须有一家本土评级机构出具评级报告；美国标准普尔在印度的评级机构CRISIL仅有9.57%的股份。
编者按：对于信用评级业国人了解得很少，信用评级业到底在国家经济和金融服务体系中有什么特殊作用？这是我们应该迫切了解的。因为它关系到我国的金融主权和国家经济安全。目前，美国正在通过大规模收购中国信用评级机构，试图控制我国信用评级行业。在不到一年的时间里，美国就收购了中国信用评级业的3家龙头企业，控制了我国三分之二以上的信用评级市场，这究竟是为什么？出于对国家经济安全和金融主权的考虑，中央财经领导小组办公室吴红牵头的课题组，对我国信用评级业展开了国际市场和国内市场的调查研究和分析，结论是，美国大规模收购中国信用评级机构正在严重威胁我国的金融主权和国家经济安全。本报将课题报告的部分内容予以刊登。
现状：监管不足 2/3被美国掌控
经过了十多年的长期准备，美国穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉等利用我国在信用评级管理方面的薄弱环节，在几乎没有任何障碍的情况下，长驱直入中国的信用评级市场。
美国评级机构借助被收购公司的分支机构，迅速将触角伸展到全中国，直接或间接从事所有评级和相关业务。
一、我国信用评级市场规模较大的只有四家
中国信用评级行业诞生于20世纪80年代末，是改革开放的产物。最初的评级机构由中国人民银行组建，隶属于各省市的分行系统。20世纪90年代以后，经过几次清理整顿，评级机构开始走向独立运营。1997年，人民银行认定了9家评级公司具有在全国范围内从事企业债券评级的资质。2005年，中国人民银行推动短期融资券市场建设，形成了中诚信、大公、联合、上海新世纪和远东五家具有全国性债券市场评级资质的评级机构。2006年后，上海远东因“福禧短融”事件逐渐淡出市场。经过二十多年的发展和市场洗礼，目前规模较大的全国性评级机构只有大公、中诚信、联合、上海新世纪4家。
二、美国评级机构对我国评级市场的掌控
经过了十多年的长期准备，美国穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉等利用我国在信用评级管理方面的薄弱环节，在几乎没有任何障碍的情况下，长驱直入中国的信用评级市场。
2006年，美国评级机构开始了对中国信用评级机构的全面渗控。2006年，穆迪收购中诚信49%股权并接管了经营权，同时约定七年后持股51%，实现绝对控股。同年，新华财经(美国控制)公司收购上海远东62%的股权，实现了对该机构的直接控制。2007年，惠誉收购了联合资信 49%的股权并接管经营权；标准普尔也与上海新世纪开始了战略合作，双方亦在商谈合资事宜。穆迪、标准普尔、惠誉三大评级公司也都曾与大公洽谈合资，提出对大公控股或控制经营权，穆迪愿意出价3000万美元购买大公控股权，但都遭到拒绝。这样，目前我国四家全国性的信用评级机构除大公始终坚持民族品牌国际化发展外，其余已经或正在被美国控制。
在被美国收购的评级机构中，中诚信、联合在全国各省均设有分公司，他们可以从事国内的所有评级业务，市场份额合计超过2/3以上。美国评级机构借助被收购公司的分支机构，迅速将触角伸展到全中国，直接或间接从事所有评级和相关业务。
三、我国信用评级市场过度开放的原因
我国信用评级市场过度开放的主要原因有以下几点：
(1)对信用评级缺乏了解。信用评级是事关金融产品定价的高端产品，但多数人不了解信用评级对国家经济社会发展和安全的重要性，更多的人根本就不懂评级是什么。这样一种具有普遍性的思想认识基础使得信用评级对我国经济社会发展的深层次重要影响和作用没有引起各方面足够的认识，信用评级业长期处于自生自灭的生存环境中。
(2)盲目迷信外国技术，认为美国评级机构比中国的好。由于对信用评级特殊性的不了解，很多中国人认为信用评级就是一般中介服务，甚至认为按照国际标准，由美国人给中国企业评级更公正、更权威。特别是一些政府管理部门，根本瞧不起中国本土评级机构，而对美国机构却频频安排高规格高级别接待，听取他们的意见。有的政府部门在评级业务的准入标准上明确首选国外机构。
(3)信用评级机构处于无人管理状态，国家尚无明确政策法规限制外国机构进入中国评级市场。迄今为止，中国没有法规明确评级机构归口哪个政府部门管理，有关部门仅依据其业务需要选择用谁的评级结果，是选中资还是外资也无法规和政策依据。中国政府在入世承诺中未包括信用评级业，面对美国机构的凌厉攻势，政府部门找不到政策依据，特别在对评级业对国家的战略影响作用认识不清晰的情况下，没有制定相应的对策，实际上形成了对美国全面开放中国信用评级市场的局面。
(4)持续进行政府高层公关。美国评级机构利用中国人对信用评级不完全了解、崇洋心理以及政府的监管缺位，持续进行政府高层公关，引导高层对外国机构进入中国市场原则表态，以此形成对具体业务部门的心理压力，并向公众传递一种中国政府支持他们进入国内市场的信息。中外评级机构与中国政府决策层接触交流机会的不对等，使得中国政府官员对美国评级业的了解程度远胜于本国。
与此形成对比的是，中资评级机构没有一家在美国境内开展信用评级业务，在亚洲和欧美评级市场上没有中国的评级声音，中国在世界评级界的“话语权”很弱。这种开放的不对等性使得我国民族信用评级业的发展处于不利地位，不利于我国评级业的长远发展。
危害：难以取得金融话语权 丧失大量国家资产
据最新统计，仅2006 年，境外投资者在工、建、中、交等国有银行身上就赚了7500亿，加上从其他中国股份制商业银行享受到的利润，保守估计，外资一年从中国银行业赚取的利润超过1万亿。
中国银行股被贱卖，问题并不在IPO环节，而是出在此前引入战略投资者的定价上。
一、美国评级机构控制我国评级市场将直接威胁国家金融安全
美国评级机构通过对资本市场的控制，就可以直接影响我国的宏观经济，甚至扰乱我国的经济秩序。长时期以来，美国评级机构有意压低我国的信用级别，影响了我国政府和企业的国际形象，增大了海外融资成本。如：2003年底，正值我国银行业谋求海外上市之际，美国标准普尔宣布维持其10年来对中国主权信用评级的BBB级，即“适宜投资”的最低限，而这10年正是我国经济迅速发展、外汇储备稳定增加的10年。还将中国13家商业银行的信用级别都评为不具备投资价值的“垃圾等级”，同时美国评级机构又高调肯定境外投资者参股中国银行，使其在与中国商业银行谈判时压低价格，为国际垄断资本攫取我国的国有资产大开方便之门。据最新统计，仅2006年，境外投资者在工、建、中、交等国有银行身上就赚了7500亿，加上从其他中国股份制商业银行享受到的利润，保守估计，外资一年从中国银行业赚取的利润超过1万亿。世界银行在2007年5月30日公布的《中国经济季报》中明确指出：中国银行股被贱卖，问题并不在IPO环节，而是出在此前引入战略投资者的定价上。较低的入股价格使得境外战略投资者们在中国金融股身上享受着暴利。目前国内专家学者越来越清楚地感受到了我国银行被贱卖造成的损失和危害，但对美国评级机构在其中所起的关键作用却依然没有充分的认识。近年来，美资机构加大了对香港金融市场的渗透与操纵，经常对香港上市的中资企业进行评级，每次都会引起香港股市的震荡。鉴于美国评级机构对香港金融市场的影响与日俱增，2002年7月，香港交易所与标准普尔签署了合作协议，有专家认为，这是香港以金融主权出让，换取美国评级机构“口下留情”，这种做法在当今国际上实属罕见。而美国评级机构正悄然进入中国经济腹地和敏感性行业，通过参与越来越多的中国国内重大债务融资评级，试图控制中国信用评级市场，通过主导中国金融市场定价权的方式渗控我国金融主权，实现其国家战略图谋。
二、美国评级机构控制我国评级市场将严重威胁国家经济技术信息安全
美国信用评级机构渗控我国评级业就可以方便地获取我国的政务信息、国有骨干企业、国防工业和特种行业、乃至国家全面的经济和技术信息，从而掌握我国技术发展动态和重大商业机密，使我国在国际竞争中处于被动地位，这势必从根本上动摇国家的竞争力。事实上，美国评级机构正以所谓“权威”和“公正”招牌参与越来越多的中国重大债务融资评级(包括国防企业和特种行业)，悄然进入我国的经济腹地和敏感性行业，公开窃取中国最有价值的经济技术情报和政务信息。最可悲的是，我们还要为此支付高额服务费用。
三、美国评级机构控制我国评级市场将使中国难以在国际金融服务体系中获得话语权
目前美国在国际金融服务体系中占据了绝对主导地位，在国际金融市场上拥有绝对的话语权和垄断地位。信用评级没有国际标准，美国评级机构代表了美国的意识形态和国家利益，经常通过其拥有的绝对话语权影响和操控国际资本市场，协助美国企业和政府攫取经济和政治利益，成为美国政治和经济强权的新工具。东南亚金融危机酝酿阶段，美国评级机构有如合谋保持沉默，危机爆发后又降级过激，加剧市场恐慌，将金融危机风暴成功拦截在美国之外，使亚洲沦为重灾区，美国本身却成为“安全避风港”。1998年亚太经合组织峰会上，马来西亚总理就此严词批评美国穆迪和美国标普的评级缺乏客观性，在亚洲金融危机中助纣为虐。美国还对反伊战的德国企业连续降级，而对其支持者澳大利亚提升信用级别。事实证明，美国评级机构通过其拥有的绝对话语权影响和操控国际资本市场，经常“在关键时刻发挥关键作用”。
对策：扶持本国评级机构 维护国家金融安全
俄罗斯总理普京宣布建立本土评级机构；马来西亚政府决定凡发行本币债券和银行借款必须由其唯一的本土机构进行评级；韩国加强了双评级管理，规定发债主体必须选择韩国的国家信息和信用评估有限公司作为双评级机构之一；日本政府出资支持其控制的亚洲评级协会扩大日本评级机构在亚洲的影响。
胡锦涛同志在中央政治局第四十三次集体学习时强调：金融越发展越要加强监管。要坚持把金融监管作为金融工作的重中之重。
人们从全球金融危机的经验教训中，才开始认识到美国垄断的评级体系在其“道德风险”控制与“评级标准”方面存在严重的问题。席卷全球的金融危机使世界评级格局正在悄然发生变化。加强评级监管的共识已经形成，越来越多的国家正在制定更为严厉的评级监管法规，着手扶持保护本国评级机构发展，依赖自己的力量维护国家金融安全。如：俄罗斯总理普京宣布建立本土评级机构；马来西亚政府决定凡发行本币债券和银行借款必须由其唯一的本土机构进行评级；韩国加强了双评级管理，规定发债主体必须选择韩国的国家信息和信用评估有限公司作为双评级机构之一；日本政府出资支持其控制的亚洲评级协会扩大日本评级机构在亚洲的影响。这些迹象表明：信用评级正被提升到国家战略层面，通过掌握评级话语权抵制现行不公正的国际评级体系正在成为一种潮流，这就为我国参与后金融危机时代的国际评级规则制定，争取国际评级话语权，创造了一个难得的历史性机遇。建议：
一、培育扶持民族信用评级机构，确保我国在国际金融市场的话语权
中央应将加快发展民族信用评级机构作为国策、并纳入国民经济与金融发展规划，促进社会信用体系发展，使国家信用评级业与我国经济社会发展同步。中国是美国国债的最大债权国，也是世界第二大净债权国，如果没有评级话语权，也就没有人民币国际化进程中的市场定价权。因此，争取国际评级话语权是保护中国核心国家利益的需要。(1)在监管体系上，坚持统一监管与专业监管相结合的原则。明确评级机构的归口管理部门和监管部门(严格市场准入和日常监管标准)。(2)把跨境贸易人民币结算试点和人民币离岸金融业务，与扶持民族评级机构开展国家信用风险评级结合起来，确保民族信用评级机构对境外人民币主权债务工具的评级话语权。(3)制定特殊的政策和措施，扶持民族信用评级机构成长壮大，可选择二至三家有发展潜质的民族评级机构(以国有参股方式)，给予重点扶持。提升国际竞争力，尽快做大做强。使民族评级机构有能力参与国际金融活动，争取应有的金融事务话语权。
二、遏制美国信用评级机构的渗控图谋，捍卫我国的金融主权和国家安全
外资机构可以参与不涉及国家经济技术安全的评级业务，但绝不能允许其主导我国评级市场。目前，美国评级机构可以不受限制地参与我国政府和各类企业(包括金融业、国防工业)的信用评级，必须完善信用评级的相关法律法规。(1) 明确限制外资评级机构不得涉及国家安全的经济领域，如大型国有企业与主要金融机构，以及国防工业(兵器、航天、航空、核工业、船舶)等。(2)我国信用评级市场的对外开放必须坚持对等原则。在批准外资进入中国信用评级市场的同时，我们应该要求其所在国政府承诺对中国评级机构的市场准入。以捍卫我国的金融主权和国家安全。
三、外资机构持股中资信用评级机构的比例最高不得超过25%，对不涉及国家金融、经济技术安全的评级，可采取“双评级”
信用评级业直接决定着资本市场上的定价权和话语权。世界各经济大国都是依靠本国评级机构为国内资本市场提供评级服务。严格控制外资评级机构进入的控股比例。根据我国国情：(1)借鉴外资金融机构投资中资银行的相关规定，外资机构持股中资信用评级机构的比例最高不得超过25%，而且不能直接或间接控制合资企业的经营权。(2)在华独资或中外合资的评级机构，凡是涉及为国外情报机构提供情报的，一经查实，立即取消其在华评级业务。(3)对于不涉及国家经济技术安全的评级应采用“双评级”。也就是说外资评级机构参与不涉及国家经济技术安全的评级，必须有本国的评级机构同时出具评级报告，以保障我国骨干企业进入国际市场时获得公正的待遇。
（课题组顾问：中国国际经济交流中心常务副理事长郑新立，财政部部长助理朱光耀；课题组组长：中央财经领导小组办公室吴红，副组长：国家安全部经济研究中心江涌。）
信用评级的作用
信用评级业是金融体系中特殊的中介服务，是维护国家金融主权的重要力量，代表了一个国家在国际金融服务体系中的国家地位。信用评级是通过对企业和政府的债务偿还风险进行评价，引导金融资本投资和经济决策，它他直接关系到金融产品的定价权，并影响一国信贷市场利率及汇率形成，与国家金融主权和经济安全密切相关。它的定价功能使评级机构掌握着企业和金融市场的生杀大权。美国次债危机证明，信用评级在现代金融体系中的关键作用，一旦信用评级出现问题，将给整个经济金融系统造成严重冲击。1997年，美国穆迪宣布对日本四大券商之一的山一证券降级，直接导致其股价狂跌和倒闭，美国美林公司乘机接管了山一证券，以极少的代价成功进入日本证券市场。2008年席卷全球的金融危机，就是由信用评级引发的一场灾难，在2008年10月22日美国国会听证会上，美国三家评级机构承认他们犯了道德错误，向市场提供了虚假评级信息。迪拜债务危机再次表明，美国主导的信用评级不能有效揭示国际债权债务关系中的风险。目前，加强评级监管已成为许多国家的共识，评级监管已写入G20金融峰会宣言。
美国信用评级占据国际垄断地位
经过了十多年的长期准备，美国穆迪、标准普尔等美国信用评级机构在国际金融服务体系中占据了垄断地位和拥有绝对话语权。信用级别是否客观很大程度上取决于评级机构的立场，美国评级机构渗透了美国的意识形态和国家利益，成为美国持续推行其价值观与政治经济强权的重要工具。而美国资本市场的评级准入限制保证了美国评级机构的垄断地位。
由于拥有全球最多的金融资本，美国金融市场是国际金融市场最重要的组成部分，美国在国际金融服务体系中占据了绝对主导地位。美国评级市场的准入制度使得美国评级机构得以凭借美国强大的金融资本在国际金融市场上拥有了绝对的话语权和垄断地位。
同时，对于国外评级机构试图进入美国市场，虽然没有明确限制的法规条例，美国监管当局对外国评级机构的进入一直持严格限制的态度。日本最大的评级机构R&I从1998年开始申请进入美国评级市场，用了近10年时间，取得了进入美国市场的资格，但要在美国真正开展评级业务尚有许多不成文的限制。
巴塞尔委员会关于银行监管的法规中有一条新规定：评级机构对银行的信用等级评定，将决定银行法定准备金数额的多少。这些规则的制定和推广使用，加强了美国评级公司的强权地位，美国评级公司实际上已经成为国际资本市场的监管者，但是在国际社会上还没有一个机构来监督美国的评级机构。
美国评级机构采取的是双重标准
美国评级机构的双重标准表现为两方面：一方面，在美国本土评级时，主要依据被评估公司自身或经美国会计公司发布的财务报告，但是，对于美国以外的企业，除少数进行“自愿评估”(需要付费)外，大多数则依据评级机构的独立评估。另一方面，对美国本土市场存在的问题经常视而不见，而对他国尤其是美国不喜欢的国家的资本市场动态往往“明察秋毫”。在1995年英国巴林银行破产的同时，美国银行的金融衍生品市场不良投资高达23万亿美元，美国评级机构都不曾降低美国银行的信誉等级。从“9·11”袭击，到安然等巨型企业的财务丑闻，到众多华尔街股票分析师不法行为连续曝光，再到2003年11月摩根大通等华尔街知名银行的金融欺诈，直至伊拉克战争与持续恐怖袭击威胁等等，美国资本市场遭遇一次又一次冲击与持续威胁，国际资本纷纷逃离美国，但是美国评级机构都没有也不打算降低美国的主权评级。
信用评级业在世界各国受到严格控制
由于认识到信用评级的特殊性，世界各主要经济大国如日本、韩国、印度、瑞典、俄罗斯等都主要依靠本国评级机构来维护国内资本市场的安全。各国大力发展本土民族信用评级机构以保护国家利益，对外国评级机构的入境大多持限制态度，即使允许外资进入，也是严格限制其控股比例。例如在日本和韩国，美国评级机构的市场占有率没有超过20%；日本企业评级必须有一家本土评级机构出具评级报告；美国标准普尔在印度的评级机构CRISIL仅有9.57%的股份。
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
吉尔吉斯坦的那些事儿
今天游行示威的暴动导致了总统巴基耶夫逃亡。反对派组建临时政府。
毗邻中国的吉尔吉斯，虽是前苏联地区中最贫穷的国家之一，但因处于中亚战略据地，是美俄在中亚「大博弈」的主要战场。事实上，吉尔吉斯蕴含石油、天然气及金矿等天然资源，亦是中国通往中亚产油区如乌玄别克以及里海的重要中转站。吉尔吉斯一旦内乱，有可能打乱中国从西部输油的部署。
吉尔吉斯总统巴基耶夫（Kurmanbek Bakiyev）自2005年鬱金香革命上台后，屡被指贪污及用人唯亲。外交上，巴基耶夫一直採左右逢源策略，同时与美俄中合作，但要平衡列强利益并不容易。今次吉尔吉斯局势恶化，有分析便归咎于巴基耶夫跟俄罗斯关系转差。
美俄一直关注中亚伊斯兰武装分子势力，两国在吉尔吉斯都有驻军。由于美国正在阿富汗作战，吉尔吉斯是美军补给线的重要一站，该国的美军空军基地负责支援阿富汗战争。俄国去年初向吉尔吉斯提供21.5亿美元援助，分析家相信俄国是要换取吉尔吉斯终止美军的马纳斯空军基地租约。巴基耶夫一度宣布不再续租，但美国总统奥巴马亲自介入，并大幅提高租金，美军得以保留基地，引起俄国不满。俄国总理普京本月1日便宣布，将对输往吉尔吉斯的石油製成品徵收新关税，分析指这可能令吉尔吉斯的汽油价格大涨三成，严重打击吉尔吉斯经济。分析家相信俄国此举是向巴基耶夫报复，试图令民怨火上加油。俄国传媒近日亦大肆攻击巴基耶夫。有传言甚至指俄国有份幕后策划近期反巴基耶夫示威，但俄国副外长昨严辞否认。
毗邻中国的吉尔吉斯，虽是前苏联地区中最贫穷的国家之一，但因处于中亚战略据地，是美俄在中亚「大博弈」的主要战场。事实上，吉尔吉斯蕴含石油、天然气及金矿等天然资源，亦是中国通往中亚产油区如乌玄别克以及里海的重要中转站。吉尔吉斯一旦内乱，有可能打乱中国从西部输油的部署。
吉尔吉斯总统巴基耶夫（Kurmanbek Bakiyev）自2005年鬱金香革命上台后，屡被指贪污及用人唯亲。外交上，巴基耶夫一直採左右逢源策略，同时与美俄中合作，但要平衡列强利益并不容易。今次吉尔吉斯局势恶化，有分析便归咎于巴基耶夫跟俄罗斯关系转差。
美俄一直关注中亚伊斯兰武装分子势力，两国在吉尔吉斯都有驻军。由于美国正在阿富汗作战，吉尔吉斯是美军补给线的重要一站，该国的美军空军基地负责支援阿富汗战争。俄国去年初向吉尔吉斯提供21.5亿美元援助，分析家相信俄国是要换取吉尔吉斯终止美军的马纳斯空军基地租约。巴基耶夫一度宣布不再续租，但美国总统奥巴马亲自介入，并大幅提高租金，美军得以保留基地，引起俄国不满。俄国总理普京本月1日便宣布，将对输往吉尔吉斯的石油製成品徵收新关税，分析指这可能令吉尔吉斯的汽油价格大涨三成，严重打击吉尔吉斯经济。分析家相信俄国此举是向巴基耶夫报复，试图令民怨火上加油。俄国传媒近日亦大肆攻击巴基耶夫。有传言甚至指俄国有份幕后策划近期反巴基耶夫示威，但俄国副外长昨严辞否认。
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Special Topic: Market Coordination Vs. Firm Coordination
专题：市场协调和企业协调
市场协调是指整个市场的各个经济体为了实行某个生产目标而相互协作。比如要是观众欣赏一部电影，需要投资方，制片方，导演和演员，发行方，电影院团体相互协作实现这一经济行为。市场协调催生性的行业，尤其催生新兴服务产业。对国家的整个经济体而言可以增加国家经济体内部行业的多样性，但是伴随而生的也有复杂性和联系性。
企业协调是指整个企业作为一个个体实现某个生产目标而相互协作。企业能力比市场更加有效地协调经济伙同这是因为企业经常实现更低的交易成本，规模经济的优势，领域的经济性，集中化生产的经济型。企业协调通常催生新兴的项目或者新兴的现存实体的经济运作，通常是为提高生产力和细化分工作出贡献。如公司外购零件，原来公司从生产到组装一条龙，现在通过外购零部件公司仅仅负责组装，从而极大降低了成本，提升生产效率，从而使各行各业更具竞争。
通常来讲企业协调优于市场协调，其优越性体现如下：
1. Transaction cost
2. Economies of Scale
3. Economies of Scope
4. Economies of Team Production (Project Managers)
但笔者不这么认为。具体问题具体分析。
市场协调是指整个市场的各个经济体为了实行某个生产目标而相互协作。比如要是观众欣赏一部电影，需要投资方，制片方，导演和演员，发行方，电影院团体相互协作实现这一经济行为。市场协调催生性的行业，尤其催生新兴服务产业。对国家的整个经济体而言可以增加国家经济体内部行业的多样性，但是伴随而生的也有复杂性和联系性。
企业协调是指整个企业作为一个个体实现某个生产目标而相互协作。企业能力比市场更加有效地协调经济伙同这是因为企业经常实现更低的交易成本，规模经济的优势，领域的经济性，集中化生产的经济型。企业协调通常催生新兴的项目或者新兴的现存实体的经济运作，通常是为提高生产力和细化分工作出贡献。如公司外购零件，原来公司从生产到组装一条龙，现在通过外购零部件公司仅仅负责组装，从而极大降低了成本，提升生产效率，从而使各行各业更具竞争。
通常来讲企业协调优于市场协调，其优越性体现如下：
1. Transaction cost
2. Economies of Scale
3. Economies of Scope
4. Economies of Team Production (Project Managers)
但笔者不这么认为。具体问题具体分析。
Reading #16: Organizing Production
Economic Profit = Total Revenue - Opportunity Costs (Total Costs)
opportunity cost = Explicit cost + implicit cost
Implicit cost = the opportunity cost to a firm of using its own capital + the oportunity cost of the time and financial resources of the firm's owners.
*implicit rental rate = economic depreciation + foregone interest
Constrained Profit Maximation
1. Technology Constraints
2. Information Constraints
3. Market Constraints
Technological Efficiency vs. Economic Efficiency
技术效率是在既定产出的条件下使用最少量的投入，投入包括生产要素各种要素。经济效率是在既定产出的条件下使成本最小化，不计较是否有技术效率，即有经济效益未必有技术效率，有技术效率不一定就有经济效率。
Ways of Organizaing Production:
I. Command System
II. Incentive System
在处理经营权和所有权分开的股份公司的职业经理人的关系时，为了在激励体制下更能发挥经理人的作用，一般会采取以下3中方法:
1. Ownership. 奖励配股
2. Incentive Pay. 绩效工资
3. Long-term Contract. 为了使CEO能够更好的作出成绩，给予长时间聘用合同有助于CEO质地计划的战略考虑和部署。
Types of Business Organizations:
I. Proprietorship
II. Partnership
III. Corporation
主要区别在于责任，募集资本难度，和税收程度(I&II 是一次性缴税，III为双次缴税)上体现不同。
Types of Economic Markets:
I. Perfectly Competitive
II. Monopolistic Competitive
III. Oligopoly
IV. Monopoly
Four Firm Concentration Ratio:
通过对某行业中四大企业固定期间的总销售额之和来度量，FFCR>60% 此行业为寡头 FFCR<40%>1800属于非竞争市场。
Firm Coordination Vs. Market Coordination
市场协调和企业协调 （另作专题）
opportunity cost = Explicit cost + implicit cost
Implicit cost = the opportunity cost to a firm of using its own capital + the oportunity cost of the time and financial resources of the firm's owners.
*implicit rental rate = economic depreciation + foregone interest
Constrained Profit Maximation
1. Technology Constraints
2. Information Constraints
3. Market Constraints
Technological Efficiency vs. Economic Efficiency
技术效率是在既定产出的条件下使用最少量的投入，投入包括生产要素各种要素。经济效率是在既定产出的条件下使成本最小化，不计较是否有技术效率，即有经济效益未必有技术效率，有技术效率不一定就有经济效率。
Ways of Organizaing Production:
I. Command System
II. Incentive System
在处理经营权和所有权分开的股份公司的职业经理人的关系时，为了在激励体制下更能发挥经理人的作用，一般会采取以下3中方法:
1. Ownership. 奖励配股
2. Incentive Pay. 绩效工资
3. Long-term Contract. 为了使CEO能够更好的作出成绩，给予长时间聘用合同有助于CEO质地计划的战略考虑和部署。
Types of Business Organizations:
I. Proprietorship
II. Partnership
III. Corporation
主要区别在于责任，募集资本难度，和税收程度(I&II 是一次性缴税，III为双次缴税)上体现不同。
Types of Economic Markets:
I. Perfectly Competitive
II. Monopolistic Competitive
III. Oligopoly
IV. Monopoly
Four Firm Concentration Ratio:
通过对某行业中四大企业固定期间的总销售额之和来度量，FFCR>60% 此行业为寡头 FFCR<40%>1800属于非竞争市场。
Firm Coordination Vs. Market Coordination
市场协调和企业协调 （另作专题）
III. Economics
Session 4. Microeconomic Analysis
Reading 13: Elasticity
Reading 14: Efficiency and Equity
Reading 15: Market in Actions
Reading 16: Organizing Production
Reading 17: Output and Costs
Session 5. Market Structure and Macroeconomic Analysis
Session 6: Monetary and Fiscal Economics
Reading 13: Elasticity
Reading 14: Efficiency and Equity
Reading 15: Market in Actions
Reading 16: Organizing Production
Reading 17: Output and Costs
Session 5. Market Structure and Macroeconomic Analysis
Session 6: Monetary and Fiscal Economics
Outline of CFA Level I
I. Ethical and Professional Standards
II. Quantitative Methods
III. Economics
- Microeconomic Analysis
- Market structure and Macroeconomic Analysis
- Monetary and Fiscal Policy
IV. Financial Reporting and Analysis
V. Corporate Finance
VI. Portfolio Management
VII. Equity
VIII. Fixed Income
IX. Derivatives
X. Alternative Investments
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Technical Analysis
Basic assumptions of establishing Technical Analysis:
Values, thus prices are determined by supply and demand.
Supply and demand are driven by rational and irrational behaviors.
The security prices move in the trend that persist for a long period.
While the causes of changes in supply and demand changes are difficult to determine, the actual shifts in supply and demand are observed in market price behavior.
The advantages of Technical Analysis:
Values, thus prices are determined by supply and demand.
Supply and demand are driven by rational and irrational behaviors.
The security prices move in the trend that persist for a long period.
While the causes of changes in supply and demand changes are difficult to determine, the actual shifts in supply and demand are observed in market price behavior.
The advantages of Technical Analysis:
- It's quick and easy.
- It doesn't involve accounting data and analytical adjustments for the difference in accounting methods.
- It incorporates psychological as well as economic reasons behind price changes.
- It tells when to buy (not why investors are buying).
The major challenge to technical analysis is the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).
the views and indicators of technical analysis:
Contrarian View, Following Smart Money View, Momentum indicators and Price and Volume Indicators
Contrarian View:
- Cash Position of Mutual Fund
- Investor's Credit Balance of Breakerage Account
- Opinions of Investment Advisory Services
- Over-the-counter and NYSE
- COBE put/option
- Stock Index Futures
Smart money rules:
- Confidence Index (CI)
- T-bil-Eurodollar Yield Spread
- Debit Balance in Brokerage Accounts (Marging Debt)
Momentum Indicators:
- Breadth of Market
- Stocks above their 200-day moving average
Stock Price and Volume Techniques:
- Dow Theory: Major Trends, Intermediate Trends, and Short-run movements.
- Importance of Volume
- Support and Resistance Levels
- Moving Average Lines
- Relative Strength
- Graphs
Choosing Sample
There are 2 limitations on the idea of "the larger, the better", when it comes to selecting an appropriate sample size. One is that larger samples may contain observations from a different populaiton (distribution). Th other one is costs of using a larger sample.
Biases:
数据线安泽偏差(Data mining/data snooping bias)
数据挖掘偏差是研究基于历史经验据而不是基于经验验证过的发展的经济理论所产生的误差。Data snooping causes data mining，当分析者一直使用相同的数据库来进行研究，这就产生了数据挖掘偏差。
样本选择偏差(sample selection bias)
样本选择偏差是一种系统性的，因为样本不是随机的，得到的任何结果就不能用用到总体分布。一个典型的形式是生存偏差(survivorship bias)，比如共同基金的morningstar指数。
预测偏差(Look-ahead bias)
预测偏差发生在分析这在研究的时候，用的数据早就过时了。
时间阶段偏差(Time period bias)
当被研究数据的时间跨度无法确定，要么太长，要么太短时，就会产生时间阶段偏差。
Biases:
数据线安泽偏差(Data mining/data snooping bias)
数据挖掘偏差是研究基于历史经验据而不是基于经验验证过的发展的经济理论所产生的误差。Data snooping causes data mining，当分析者一直使用相同的数据库来进行研究，这就产生了数据挖掘偏差。
样本选择偏差(sample selection bias)
样本选择偏差是一种系统性的，因为样本不是随机的，得到的任何结果就不能用用到总体分布。一个典型的形式是生存偏差(survivorship bias)，比如共同基金的morningstar指数。
预测偏差(Look-ahead bias)
预测偏差发生在分析这在研究的时候，用的数据早就过时了。
时间阶段偏差(Time period bias)
当被研究数据的时间跨度无法确定，要么太长，要么太短时，就会产生时间阶段偏差。
Friday, April 2, 2010
凯恩斯主义经济学中的总供给(AS)和总需求(AD)
凯恩斯主义总支出模型包括：消费支出，投资支出，政府购买支出和净出口，总支出每一部分都对物品和劳务总需求作出了贡献。
Expenditure = Consumption Expenditure + Investment + Government Purchase + Net Export
支出法是通过把消费支出(C, I, G, NX) 加总求和来衡量GDP, 即
Real Aggregate Expendirure = GDP
居民消费支出，居民购买的消费品与劳务的价值。影响居民消费支出的主要由可支配收入决定。可支配收入(disposable income) 是居民提供生产要素劳务所得到的收入，加上政府转移支付前去税收。可支配收入分为消费和储蓄两方面。可支配收入与消费成正比。
投资支出，购买新工厂，设备和建筑物，以及增加存款。因为投资是被基本模型意外的因素确定，认为投资支出是给定的，不岁可支配收入的变化而变化。
政府支出，政府支出想投资一样，是给定的，不岁可支配收入而变化。所以在模型中，投资和政府支出假设是给定的。
净出口是国外对本国产品和劳务的净支出。
Expenditure = Consumption Expenditure + Investment + Government Purchase + Net Export
支出法是通过把消费支出(C, I, G, NX) 加总求和来衡量GDP, 即
Real Aggregate Expendirure = GDP
居民消费支出，居民购买的消费品与劳务的价值。影响居民消费支出的主要由可支配收入决定。可支配收入(disposable income) 是居民提供生产要素劳务所得到的收入，加上政府转移支付前去税收。可支配收入分为消费和储蓄两方面。可支配收入与消费成正比。
投资支出，购买新工厂，设备和建筑物，以及增加存款。因为投资是被基本模型意外的因素确定，认为投资支出是给定的，不岁可支配收入的变化而变化。
政府支出，政府支出想投资一样，是给定的，不岁可支配收入而变化。所以在模型中，投资和政府支出假设是给定的。
净出口是国外对本国产品和劳务的净支出。
Thursday, April 1, 2010
奥巴马下令废除施行20年的禁令 美国东岸可采油（转）
美国总统奥巴马（Barack Obama）宣布解除美国东岸部分海域採油禁令，容许油公司进行石油及天然气钻探。当局称，有关措施可助减少美国对海外石油的倚赖，及创造更多就业机会。有关政策料将获长期倡议在美国本土开採石油的共和党及油公司欢迎，但将引起受影响州份居民及环保人士抗议。
奥巴马周三中午在马里兰州安德鲁斯空军基地公布离岸石油与天然气勘探计划。美国在过往逾20年内一直禁止在墨西哥湾以外的近岸海域开採石油，但奥巴马宣布，将陆续开放美国东岸与墨西哥湾东部一些海域供勘探与开採石油和天然气。
官方未有公布将开放地区潜在油气储量，但内政部估计，以现时美国能源消耗量计算，这些地区可供应美国3年石油用量及多于两年天然气用量。最先解禁的弗吉尼亚州外海，该处估计有1.3亿桶油以及1.14兆平方迟天然气藏量，当局计划将来逐步开发东岸其他海域，覆盖范围由特拉华州北部到佛罗里达州中部约 1.67亿英亩海域。新泽西州以北、以及由墨西哥边境到加拿大边境的西岸沿海，则会继续列为禁区，相信与当地政客强烈反对开採有关。
离岸开採石油是共和党在2008年大选时主要主张之一，面对高油价引起的社会怨气及中东政局不稳等压力，奥巴马在竞选时亦多次表示支持扩大近岸採油。他在 1月的国情咨文中也表示，美国要摆脱对进口石油的倚赖，就必须採取「果断决定」，开放新的离岸地区进行油气开发。
新开採方案其实是源自美国上一任总统小布殊。负责制订有关方案的内政部长萨拉查（Ken Salazar），去年举行多场公众谘询，收到50万份意见，调整开採方案，希望减少反对压力。新方案重新把阿拉斯加布里斯托尔湾列为禁止开採区，当地有很高生态价值，除了是商业捕鱼重地，亦有不少濒临绝种的鲸鱼。除了用这一禁令讨好环保人士，奥巴马还将推出新能源政策，包括为政府车队添加5000架混合燃料车等。
《纽约时报》报道，弗吉尼亚离岸海域最快可于下年供油公司租用开採，该海域已获当局批淮开发，但因有人入禀法院挑战及内政部决定进行更多环境评估而未能招标。
奥巴马周三中午在马里兰州安德鲁斯空军基地公布离岸石油与天然气勘探计划。美国在过往逾20年内一直禁止在墨西哥湾以外的近岸海域开採石油，但奥巴马宣布，将陆续开放美国东岸与墨西哥湾东部一些海域供勘探与开採石油和天然气。
官方未有公布将开放地区潜在油气储量，但内政部估计，以现时美国能源消耗量计算，这些地区可供应美国3年石油用量及多于两年天然气用量。最先解禁的弗吉尼亚州外海，该处估计有1.3亿桶油以及1.14兆平方迟天然气藏量，当局计划将来逐步开发东岸其他海域，覆盖范围由特拉华州北部到佛罗里达州中部约 1.67亿英亩海域。新泽西州以北、以及由墨西哥边境到加拿大边境的西岸沿海，则会继续列为禁区，相信与当地政客强烈反对开採有关。
离岸开採石油是共和党在2008年大选时主要主张之一，面对高油价引起的社会怨气及中东政局不稳等压力，奥巴马在竞选时亦多次表示支持扩大近岸採油。他在 1月的国情咨文中也表示，美国要摆脱对进口石油的倚赖，就必须採取「果断决定」，开放新的离岸地区进行油气开发。
新开採方案其实是源自美国上一任总统小布殊。负责制订有关方案的内政部长萨拉查（Ken Salazar），去年举行多场公众谘询，收到50万份意见，调整开採方案，希望减少反对压力。新方案重新把阿拉斯加布里斯托尔湾列为禁止开採区，当地有很高生态价值，除了是商业捕鱼重地，亦有不少濒临绝种的鲸鱼。除了用这一禁令讨好环保人士，奥巴马还将推出新能源政策，包括为政府车队添加5000架混合燃料车等。
《纽约时报》报道，弗吉尼亚离岸海域最快可于下年供油公司租用开採，该海域已获当局批淮开发，但因有人入禀法院挑战及内政部决定进行更多环境评估而未能招标。
Friday, March 26, 2010
Credit Default Swap (CDS) 信用违约掉期的理解
信用违约掉期的实质体现了保险业最传统的一面--分担风险。不同的是针对的对象。简单举例，操作信用违约掉期至少需要三方，一方是借款方也是购买掉期的买方，一方是买方提供资金的贷款方，第三方是提供掉期合同的单位。贷款方通过抵押向借款方借款，借款方为了将贷款风险降低到最小，购买了第三方的服务，即信用违约掉期合同。合同的性质是在贷款方未按时还款或者未来不可能有还款能力时，买方可以将抵押物向第三方索偿，第三方给予买方以补偿，但是期间买方必须要定期向第三方持续支付费用，第三方赚取的是倘若贷款方按时还款的保险金。
以上只是信用违约掉期的最浅显的运作。乍看上去和一般保险理念没有不同。但是其最大的不同--对象，直接导致了CDS由分担风险的金融衍生工具变为超级怪兽。一般保险业的被保对象都是自然发生的事件，事件的发生都是独立的，无规律可循，比如朋友中了彩票丝毫不能影响你中彩票的几率。但是信用违约掉期的被保对象是以巨型企业为主的经济体系，他们之间有着千丝万缕的关系，比如提供掉期合同的单位同时给两家企业提供掉期合同，一家是钢铁工厂的借款方，另一家是铁矿石开采厂借款方，当这家矿石开采厂所在的矿脉枯竭时，铁矿石开采厂破产，抵押给买方设备机器，买方将设备机器给了单位，然后换取全额损失，设备机器对单位来说已是废铜烂铁，由于铁矿产枯竭，设备过剩，再+上折旧，基本无价值，更糟糕的是单位还要支付全额的保险金！最糟糕的是被保的第二家是钢铁厂，由于铁矿石资源稀缺，钢铁厂无矿石可冶炼加工锻造，造成破产，单位还要支付钢铁工厂借款方的全额保险金，若单位保的是整个钢铁产业链，单位必然倒闭！若单位购买了AIG的保险，AIG遭受致命的打击，AIG作为保险业最后一个环节结是不能破产的，故美国政府用纳税人的税金填补AIG的窟窿，这就是本次金融危机的诱因。故将CDS称为大规模杀伤性武器！
此外CDS还和经济走向有着重要的关系，若经济低迷或者萧条，金融市场的变化和经济变化是有一定时间的适应期的，虽然美国将这个时期尽量缩小，但是丝毫不影响CDS将整个金融体系推入深渊！CDS的效应和乘数太大，是一只不折不扣的猛兽，就看驾驭它的服务机构的能力了。
现在CDS开始进入发展中国家为举足轻重的支柱产业企业做保！这就使笔者陷入极度的恐慌！连美国现阶段都无法成功驾驭的猛兽，怎么可以将其放入中国？侵吞中国的企业和经济！我们的相关专家学者和投资机构还有监管机构和美国比还在幼年期，虽然我们是要大胆的尝试，大量的去实践，但是这种实践无疑是要付出惨痛的代价，这种代价很可能使我们来之不易的经济成果一夜间付之一炬，更遭的是很可能经济要倒退很多年。从政治角度讲，CDS可以看作大规模杀伤性武器，他是可以被人利用作为毁灭敌人的工具，很有可能被心怀鬼胎的国家作为武器投放到中国！笔者希望政府有关部门和相关人士谨慎对待，不能允许他们将我们的金融产业扼杀在摇篮里。
以上只是信用违约掉期的最浅显的运作。乍看上去和一般保险理念没有不同。但是其最大的不同--对象，直接导致了CDS由分担风险的金融衍生工具变为超级怪兽。一般保险业的被保对象都是自然发生的事件，事件的发生都是独立的，无规律可循，比如朋友中了彩票丝毫不能影响你中彩票的几率。但是信用违约掉期的被保对象是以巨型企业为主的经济体系，他们之间有着千丝万缕的关系，比如提供掉期合同的单位同时给两家企业提供掉期合同，一家是钢铁工厂的借款方，另一家是铁矿石开采厂借款方，当这家矿石开采厂所在的矿脉枯竭时，铁矿石开采厂破产，抵押给买方设备机器，买方将设备机器给了单位，然后换取全额损失，设备机器对单位来说已是废铜烂铁，由于铁矿产枯竭，设备过剩，再+上折旧，基本无价值，更糟糕的是单位还要支付全额的保险金！最糟糕的是被保的第二家是钢铁厂，由于铁矿石资源稀缺，钢铁厂无矿石可冶炼加工锻造，造成破产，单位还要支付钢铁工厂借款方的全额保险金，若单位保的是整个钢铁产业链，单位必然倒闭！若单位购买了AIG的保险，AIG遭受致命的打击，AIG作为保险业最后一个环节结是不能破产的，故美国政府用纳税人的税金填补AIG的窟窿，这就是本次金融危机的诱因。故将CDS称为大规模杀伤性武器！
此外CDS还和经济走向有着重要的关系，若经济低迷或者萧条，金融市场的变化和经济变化是有一定时间的适应期的，虽然美国将这个时期尽量缩小，但是丝毫不影响CDS将整个金融体系推入深渊！CDS的效应和乘数太大，是一只不折不扣的猛兽，就看驾驭它的服务机构的能力了。
现在CDS开始进入发展中国家为举足轻重的支柱产业企业做保！这就使笔者陷入极度的恐慌！连美国现阶段都无法成功驾驭的猛兽，怎么可以将其放入中国？侵吞中国的企业和经济！我们的相关专家学者和投资机构还有监管机构和美国比还在幼年期，虽然我们是要大胆的尝试，大量的去实践，但是这种实践无疑是要付出惨痛的代价，这种代价很可能使我们来之不易的经济成果一夜间付之一炬，更遭的是很可能经济要倒退很多年。从政治角度讲，CDS可以看作大规模杀伤性武器，他是可以被人利用作为毁灭敌人的工具，很有可能被心怀鬼胎的国家作为武器投放到中国！笔者希望政府有关部门和相关人士谨慎对待，不能允许他们将我们的金融产业扼杀在摇篮里。
Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS)
GIPS Objectives:
- TO obtain global acceptance of calculation and presentation standards in a fair, comparable format with full disclosure.
- To ensure consistent, accurate investment performance data in ares of reporting, records, marketing, and presentations.
- To promote fair competition among investment management firms in all markets without unnecessary entry barriers for new firms.
- To promote global "self regulation."
Characteristics of GIPS:
- To claim compliance, an investment management firm must define its "firm."
- GIPS are ethical standards for performance presentation which ensure fair representation of results and full disclosure.
- Include all actual fee-paying, discretionary portfolios in composites for a minimum of 5 years or since firm or composite inception.
- Firms are required to use certain calculation and presentation standards and make specific disclosures.
- Input data must be accurate.
- GIPS contain both required and recommended provision-firms are encouraged to adopt the recommended provisions.
- firms are encouraged to present all pertinent additional and supplemental information.
- There will be no partial compliance and only full compliance can be claimed.
- Follow the local laws for cases in which a local or country-specific law or regulation conflicts with GIPS, but disclose the conflict.
- Certain "recommendations" may become "requirements" in the future.
- Supplemental "private equity" and "real estate" provisions, contained in GIPS, are to be applied to those asset classes.
8 Major Sections of the GIPS Standards
- Fundamentals of Compliance
- Input Data
- Calculation Methodology
- Composite Construction
- Disclosures
- Presentation and Reporting
- Real Estate
- Private Equity
Six Components of the Code Ethics and Seven Standards of Professional Coduct
Code of Ethics
The Standards of Professional Conduct
I. Professionalism
- Act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, employers, colleagues in the investment profession, and other participants in the global capital markets.
- Place the integrity of the investment profession and the interests of clients above their own personal interests.
- Use reasonable care and exercise independent professional judgement when conducting investment analysis, making investment recommendations, taking investment actions, and engaging in other professional activities.
- Practice and encourage others to practice in a professional and ethical manner that will reflect credit on themselves and the profession.
- Promote the integrity of , and uphold the rules governing, capital markets.
- Maintain and improve their professional competence and strive to maintain and improve the competence of other investment professionals.
The Standards of Professional Conduct
I. Professionalism
- Knowledge of the Law
- Independence and Objectivity
- Misrepresentation
- Misconduct
II. Integrity of Capital Markets
- Material Nonpublic Information
- Market Manipulation
III. Duties to Clients
- Loyalty, Prudence and Care
- Fair Dealing
- Suitability
- Performance Presentation
- Preservation Confidentiality
IV. Duties to Employers
- Loyalty
- Additional Compensation Arrangement
- Responsibilities of Supervisors
V. Investment Analysis, Recommendations, and Actions
- Diligence and Reasonable Basis
- Communication with Clients and Prospective Clients
- Record Retention
VI. Conflicts of Interest
- Disclosure of Conflicts
- Priorities of transactions
- Referral Fees
VII. Responsibilities as a CFA Institute Member or CFA Candidate
- Conduct as members or candidates in the CFA program
- Reference to CFA Institute, the CFA Designation, and the CFA Program
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Monday, March 22, 2010
凯恩斯的著作（译本）
《凡尔塞和约的经济后果》华夏出版社 25.00元
《货币改革论》陕西人民出版社 16.8元
《货币论》商务印书馆 17.8元
《劝说集》商务印书馆 20.00元
《就业、利息和货币通论》商务印书馆 28.00 元
《自由放任主义的终结》商务印书馆 价格不详
《如何筹措战费》商务印书馆 价格不详
《印度的货币和金融》商务印书馆 价格不详
《和平的经济后果》中国经济出版社 价格不详
《货币改革论》陕西人民出版社 16.8元
《货币论》商务印书馆 17.8元
《劝说集》商务印书馆 20.00元
《就业、利息和货币通论》商务印书馆 28.00 元
《自由放任主义的终结》商务印书馆 价格不详
《如何筹措战费》商务印书馆 价格不详
《印度的货币和金融》商务印书馆 价格不详
《和平的经济后果》中国经济出版社 价格不详
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
战争的实质
打仗开战表层来讲较量的是军力，军力即国力，国力由国家的综合国力体现出来，即科学技术，工业水平，人口资源等基本要素。更通俗地讲，两大国正式战争是筷子和餐刀叉的较量，抽象来说是双方社会制度和意识形态的对撞，是在比拼双方文明的先进程度和某种状况下的优劣程度。
纵观世界历史，战争永远都是人类历史中伴随人类文明成长发展的关键因素。没有一个国家和民族有着没有战争的历史。通过无比惨烈的战争，我们可以看出一个国家的性格和一个民族的精神。但是我们通常都会慷慨地付出这种惨痛的代价来认清我们自己，同样我们也在这不计其数的战争中领悟出相当多的真理和铁律，一条是没有永远的和平，也没有永远的战争。另一条是随着人类文明的发展，经后战争的代价是整个人类文明的倒退甚至灭亡。
纵观世界历史，战争永远都是人类历史中伴随人类文明成长发展的关键因素。没有一个国家和民族有着没有战争的历史。通过无比惨烈的战争，我们可以看出一个国家的性格和一个民族的精神。但是我们通常都会慷慨地付出这种惨痛的代价来认清我们自己，同样我们也在这不计其数的战争中领悟出相当多的真理和铁律，一条是没有永远的和平，也没有永远的战争。另一条是随着人类文明的发展，经后战争的代价是整个人类文明的倒退甚至灭亡。
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
完全竞争经济下资本的供需
影响资金成本的最近本的4个因素：
- 生产机会（对现在项目的预期回报率expected rate of return）
- 消费的时间偏好
- 风险（违约，信用，等风险）
- 通货膨胀（inflation）
支付给储户的利息率应考虑以下因素：
- 生产者对于投入资本的预期收益率
- 储户当前消费与未来消费相比较的时间偏好
- 借出款的风险
- 预期的通货膨胀
市场的供需主要由3个因素影响：市场状况，货币政策和通货膨胀
影响储蓄和金融资本供给的3个因素：利率，当前收入和预期未来收入
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Monday, March 8, 2010
有效资本市场假设(Efficient Market Hypothesis)
I. 资本市场有效的前提假设：
- 大量投资者互相独立地分析证券以获得最大利润，根据自己对证券价格的评估进行买卖行为。
- 新的信息到达市场的方式是随机的，不服从任何特定模式，也无法预测。
- 新信息到达市场后，投资者即时做出反应，对证券应有价格重新进行评估，迅速调整自己的买卖行为。
- 证券的期望收益E(R)包含其所具有的风险，即风险与收益(risk/return)相匹配，高风险高收益，波动之后重新回归risk/return无差异曲线。
II. 资本市场有效的含义：
无新信息是证券价格处于均衡，新信息到达时价格才进行调整，而信息的发生是岁禁的，因此证券价格的变化是无法预测的，任何人无法通过预测证券价格变化来获得超过市场平均收益的超额收益。通俗点说，价格回应信息的变化即时变化到新的均衡点，期间时间近乎为零，更无预测和控制可言。
III. 假设有效市场的有效性可以分为三种：
- 弱式有效。信息集仅包括股票历史记录所蕴含的信息，即现行价格只是充分放映了历史交易数据的信息。(只反应security market 里边的信息)
- 次强势有效。股价不仅反应了历史交易的信息，而且反应了错有的公开信息。(反应security market和public内的信息)
- 强式有效。股价不仅反应与公司有关的所有公开信息，而且反应了仅为内幕所知的信息。(反应security market, public and inside or private内的信息)
IV. 三种有效性的检验方法：
- 市场弱式有效性的检验方法：自相关性检验和游程检验(autocorrelation test and run test)和交易规则检验(Trading Rule Test).
- 市场次强式有效性的检验方法：abnormal return=Ractual-Rmarket, return prediction study, event study, and cross-sectional tests
- 市场强式有效性的检验方法：insider trading, exchange specialists, security analysis, and professional money managers. （公司内幕人员：董事长，总经理，财务主管；外部：职业投资经理，证券的做市商）
V. 对个形式EMH中的客观评论：
- 弱式有效：实证检验的结果基本上支持证券市场的弱式有效性。
- 次强式有效：研究结果部分支持有效和无效，因此不能得出最后结论。
- 强式有效：对于公司内幕人员和专家交易上，由于他们拥有普通投资者所不具有的特殊信息，研究结果表明他们可以获得超过市场平均的利润，故强式有效不成立。
学者们使用上述各种方法对证券市场是否有效进行了检验，范县一些不符合EMH的市场现象，称为市场异象(anomaly)。时间序列检验结果，发现市场异常。和界面检验结果范县市场异常。事件研究的结果显示支持次强式有效。
Sunday, March 7, 2010
全球市场间的低相关性如何支持全球投资策略
同一国家内部的不同投资市场部分的证券指数具有较低的相关系数(correlation coefficient)，不同国家中的投资市场的证券指数之间相关系数更低（如纽约交易所指数与日经指数相关系数仅为0.35），前者说明在不同市场部门间进行分散化投资可以降低投资组合的风险，后者说明在全球范围内进行分散投资可以进一步降低投资组合的风险。同样，国家内部不同债券市场部门（如投资级债券，高收益债券等）和不同国家的债券指数之间也具有较低的相关系数，因此进行分散化的债券投资也可以降低债券投资组合的风险。
Friday, March 5, 2010
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
The Importance of Asset Allocation
Several study support the idea that approximately 90% of the variation in a single protfolio's returns over time can be explained by its target asset allocations, and about 40% of the variation in returns across funds can be explained by their target asset allocations. the clear implication of this result is that differences in returns among asset classes are much more important than differences in security selection in determining overall portfolio returns.
Markowitz Investors
- Returns distribution. Investors look at each investment opportunity as a probability distribution of expected returns over a given investment horizon.
- Utility maximization. Investors maximize their expected utility over a given investment horizon, and their indifference curves exhibit diminishing marginal utility of Wealth (i.e. they are convex).
- Risk is variability. Investors measure risk as the variance (standard deviation) of expected returns.
- Risk/return. Investors make all investment decisions by considering only the risk and return of an investment opportunity.
- Risk aversion. Given two investments with equal expected returns, investors prefer the one with the lower risk. Likewise, given two investments with equal risk, investors prefer the one with the greater expected return.
马克维茨投资组合理论的假设：
- 每项投资服从概率分布。
- 投资者努力使投资效用达到最大化。
- 投资者将投资期望收益的风险作为方差（或标准差）来表示。
- 投资者只基于风险和收益之间来做决策。
- 投资者总是对风险表现厌恶。对给定的风险水平，投资者希望最高收益。
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Interest Expense
Interest expense 译为利息费用，英国会计准则多为interest payable所替代。其解释为融资所需要支付的成本。在公式中 ending book value=beginning book value+interest expense-coupon利息费用是要加入初始票面值的，可以理解为利息费用是一种分离出来的账户用于记录应付利息用的，而真正支出是通过债券的票息体现出来，故需要将利息支出加入初始面值中。
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
新闻评论
昨天看了篇叫北京两岁男童被父亲锁在街边的新闻。简要介绍，一家人在北京打工，妻子精神病在家养病，前两天女儿丢了，丈夫在找女儿的同时也不能丢下家里，自己带两岁的儿子外出找工作，于是将儿子锁在旁边的大树上。此事经过报道后，一个幼儿园的校长愿意替男童交3年的费用（约4万元）进入幼儿园。
新闻引起很大的波动，据说外国媒体也介入进行报道。我想这位父亲不会意识到这件事的背后意味着什么，他只是一位很普通的农民工，从他和他的儿子和女儿的名字“程传六”“金蛋”“金红”就可以知道。我很敬佩这位父亲，在顶着空前的压力的同时，仍要坚持着顶着这个支离破碎的家庭，他不将这些看作灾难，却看成了他生活的一部分。
人都有自己的生活，他觉得他将儿子锁到树边可以避免将儿子再次丢掉，从而可以更宽心地找工作。但是在这个他无法想象到的文明的社会，又是在北京，这件事却可以升级到很敏感的高度。
首先就是户口制度。中国是极少数实行户口制度的国家之一。国家维持这一制度也是必然，因为中国人口太多了，任何的流动和迁移都不是个小问题。为了维护社会稳定和更好的刚性管理，国家将户口制度细分农村和非农村户口，从而做到了控制农村人口过度流向城市，保证全国的长治久安。但是这也多多少少触及到了德先生。有些人利用他来攻击中国政府，一位自己国家的国民却不能够在自己国家自由的活动，这是多么无法想象的事情。也许大家知道，在美国，只要是美国居民是可以自由的在美国任何地方停留。这是事实，我曾到过美国很多地方，我只要出示驾照，任何的旅馆和服务性设施我都可以使用，但是有些州会给我带来麻烦，我曾经被警察开罚单，罪名是外州驾照驾驶，匪夷所思，但是是很少的州罚我。我也可以再美国的任何地方买房子，工作，等做任何社会活动只要不触犯法律。我可以用很短的时间处理好银行的事宜，如果我要在美国搬新家的话。我也很享受这种方便。但是这是在美国，不是在中国，美国是美国，中国是中国，国民的自由很大程度是依赖国家的发达程度的。很简单的例子，如果我要在这个地方长期居住，我只需要更新一下我的驾照，我就不需要再去其他部门更新信息，因为美国有非常强大的政府共享信息系统。
然后要澄清的是这件事不是由于户口制度本身造成的。有些人妄加评论，因为他是农村务工人员，由于户口的关系，他享受不到城市的医保，教育和社会福利等等，我所要问的是，新闻中提及父亲去寻求政府机关帮助未果吗？仅从新闻提供的信息来看，只能认为做的不足之处是农民工进入城市务工之前没有接受完全的系统的培训和学习，导致有病不知投哪个医。
新闻引起很大的波动，据说外国媒体也介入进行报道。我想这位父亲不会意识到这件事的背后意味着什么，他只是一位很普通的农民工，从他和他的儿子和女儿的名字“程传六”“金蛋”“金红”就可以知道。我很敬佩这位父亲，在顶着空前的压力的同时，仍要坚持着顶着这个支离破碎的家庭，他不将这些看作灾难，却看成了他生活的一部分。
人都有自己的生活，他觉得他将儿子锁到树边可以避免将儿子再次丢掉，从而可以更宽心地找工作。但是在这个他无法想象到的文明的社会，又是在北京，这件事却可以升级到很敏感的高度。
首先就是户口制度。中国是极少数实行户口制度的国家之一。国家维持这一制度也是必然，因为中国人口太多了，任何的流动和迁移都不是个小问题。为了维护社会稳定和更好的刚性管理，国家将户口制度细分农村和非农村户口，从而做到了控制农村人口过度流向城市，保证全国的长治久安。但是这也多多少少触及到了德先生。有些人利用他来攻击中国政府，一位自己国家的国民却不能够在自己国家自由的活动，这是多么无法想象的事情。也许大家知道，在美国，只要是美国居民是可以自由的在美国任何地方停留。这是事实，我曾到过美国很多地方，我只要出示驾照，任何的旅馆和服务性设施我都可以使用，但是有些州会给我带来麻烦，我曾经被警察开罚单，罪名是外州驾照驾驶，匪夷所思，但是是很少的州罚我。我也可以再美国的任何地方买房子，工作，等做任何社会活动只要不触犯法律。我可以用很短的时间处理好银行的事宜，如果我要在美国搬新家的话。我也很享受这种方便。但是这是在美国，不是在中国，美国是美国，中国是中国，国民的自由很大程度是依赖国家的发达程度的。很简单的例子，如果我要在这个地方长期居住，我只需要更新一下我的驾照，我就不需要再去其他部门更新信息，因为美国有非常强大的政府共享信息系统。
然后要澄清的是这件事不是由于户口制度本身造成的。有些人妄加评论，因为他是农村务工人员，由于户口的关系，他享受不到城市的医保，教育和社会福利等等，我所要问的是，新闻中提及父亲去寻求政府机关帮助未果吗？仅从新闻提供的信息来看，只能认为做的不足之处是农民工进入城市务工之前没有接受完全的系统的培训和学习，导致有病不知投哪个医。
Thursday, February 4, 2010
How Are Software Development Costs and Research and Development Costs Capitalized
Under U.S. GAAP, research and development costs are expensed as incurred. Under IFRS, research costs are expensed as incurred and development costs are capitalized.
Costs incurred to develop software for sale to others are expensed as incurred until the product's technological feasibility has been established. Once technological feasibility has been established, subsequent costs are capitalized.
Costs incurred to develop software for sale to others are expensed as incurred until the product's technological feasibility has been established. Once technological feasibility has been established, subsequent costs are capitalized.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Capitalized Interest
Adjusted total assets=total assets-capitalized interest+related depreciation
利息资本化会影响到总资产。原本为费用的利息现在资本话后变为固定资产的一部分，在调整总资产的时候要将资本化的利息从原资产中剔除，原因是利息费用现在作为成本将转化为成本的一部分融入到商品中去。然后加上相关折旧费用，通俗点讲，举个例子，原来一个设备10000元，购置这个设备需要的资金要支付100元的利息，公司宣称100元利息当期资本化之后，这100元在先前已经剔除，剔除100元的设备总值现在为9900元，9900<10000，故采用相同方法的当期折旧就会比资本化利息前要小，所以要将折旧费用加回到总资产里。
利息资本化会影响到总资产。原本为费用的利息现在资本话后变为固定资产的一部分，在调整总资产的时候要将资本化的利息从原资产中剔除，原因是利息费用现在作为成本将转化为成本的一部分融入到商品中去。然后加上相关折旧费用，通俗点讲，举个例子，原来一个设备10000元，购置这个设备需要的资金要支付100元的利息，公司宣称100元利息当期资本化之后，这100元在先前已经剔除，剔除100元的设备总值现在为9900元，9900<10000，故采用相同方法的当期折旧就会比资本化利息前要小，所以要将折旧费用加回到总资产里。
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
How to Adjust LIFO Inventory to FIFO Inventory
FIFO INVENTORY=LIFO INVENTORY+LIFO RESERVE LIFO Reserve divided into 2 parts, one is under th liabilities (tax), which is equal to LIFO reserve*tax rate. the other one is under the equity (retained earnings), which equals LIFO reserve*(1-tax rate). In the other words, the LIFO reserve could be explain as following:
LIFO Reserve=deferred taxes+retained earnings
FIFO COGS=LIFO COGS-(ending LIFO reserve-beginning LIFO reserve)
LIFO Reserve=deferred taxes+retained earnings
FIFO COGS=LIFO COGS-(ending LIFO reserve-beginning LIFO reserve)
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Arguments in Favor of Direct and Indirect Methods of Cash Flow
The primary advantage of the direct method is that it presents the firm's operating cash receipts and payments, while the indirect method only presents the net result of these receipts and payments. Therefore, the direct method provides more information than the indirect method. This knowledge of past receipts and payments is useful in estimating future operating cash flows.
The main advantage of the indirect method is that it focuses on the differences in net income and operating Cash flow. This provides a useful link to the income statement when forecasting future operating cash flow. Analysts forecast net income and then derive operating cash flow by adjusting net income for the differences between accrual accounting and the cash basis of accounting.
Disclosure requirements
Under U.S. GAAP, a direct method presentation must also disclose the adjustments necessary to reconcile net income to cash flow from operating activities. This disclosure is the same information that is presented in an indirect method cash flow statement. This reconciliation is not required under IFRS.
Under IFRS, payments for interest and taxes must be disclosed separately in the cash flow statement under either method (direct or indirect). Under U.S. GAAP, payments for interest and taxes can be reported in the cash flow statement or disclosed in the footnotes.
The main advantage of the indirect method is that it focuses on the differences in net income and operating Cash flow. This provides a useful link to the income statement when forecasting future operating cash flow. Analysts forecast net income and then derive operating cash flow by adjusting net income for the differences between accrual accounting and the cash basis of accounting.
Disclosure requirements
Under U.S. GAAP, a direct method presentation must also disclose the adjustments necessary to reconcile net income to cash flow from operating activities. This disclosure is the same information that is presented in an indirect method cash flow statement. This reconciliation is not required under IFRS.
Under IFRS, payments for interest and taxes must be disclosed separately in the cash flow statement under either method (direct or indirect). Under U.S. GAAP, payments for interest and taxes can be reported in the cash flow statement or disclosed in the footnotes.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income
Accumulated other comprehensive income includes all changes in stockholders' equity except for transactions recognized in the income statement (net income) and transactions with sharesholders, such as issuing stock, reacquiring stock, and paying dividends.
Comprehensive income is an income measure over a period of time. It includes net income and other comprehensive income for the period. Accumulated other comprehensive income does not include net income but is a component of stockholders' equity at a point in time.
Comprehensive income is an income measure over a period of time. It includes net income and other comprehensive income for the period. Accumulated other comprehensive income does not include net income but is a component of stockholders' equity at a point in time.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Goodwill
Goodwill is the excess of purchase price over the fair value of the identifiable assts and liabilities acquired in a business acquisition. It's a typical one of the unidetifiable intangible asset.
Example: Goodwill
W Corp. paid $600 million for the outstanding stock of P Corp. At the acquisition date, P reported the following Condensed balance sheet.
P Corp. - Condensed Balance Sheet
------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------- Book Value (millions)
Current assets --------------------$80
Plant and equipment, net ----------760
Goodwil -----------------------------30
Liabilities --------------------------400
Stocksholders' equity ---------------470
------------------------------------------------------
The fair value of the plant and equipment was $120 million more than recorded book value. The fair value of all other identifiable assets and liabilities were equal to their recorded book values. Calculate the amount of goodwill W should report on its consolidated balance sheet.
Answer:
------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------ Book value(millions)
Current assets---------------------$80
Plant and equipment, net----------880
Liabilities--------------------------(400)
Fair value of net assets-------------560
Purchase price---------------------600
Less: Fair value of net assets-------(560)
Acquisition goodwill----------------40
------------------------------------------------------
The plant and equipment was "written up" by $120 million to reflect fair value. The goodwill reported on P's balance sheet is an unidentifiable asset and is thus ignored in the calculation of W's goodwill.
商誉(goodwill)是指能在未来期间为企业经营带来超额利润的潜在经济价值，或一家企业预期的获利能力超过可辨认资产正常获利能力（如社会平均投资回报率）的资本化价值。商誉是企业整体价值的组成部分。在企业合并时，它是购买企业投资成本超过被并企业净资产公允价值的差额。
核心商誉论:美国财务会计准则委员会(FASB)于1999 年9月7日公布了一项征求意见稿,首次提出了“核心商誉”(core goodwill)的概念。
FASB认为,商誉可描述为由六个要素组成:(1)被收购企业净资产在收购日的公允市价大于其账面价值的差额。(2)被收购企业未确认的其他净资产的公允市价。(3)被收购企业存续业务“持续经营”(going-concern)构件的公允价值。(4)收购企业与被收购企业净资产和业务结合的预期协同效应的公允市价。(5)收购企业由于计量收购报价的错误而多计量的金额。尽管在所有现金交易中的收购价格不会出现计量错误,但如果是涉及到股票交换的交易,则很难说不会出现计量错误。(6)收购企业多支付或少支付的金额。
要素1和要素2都与被收购企业有关,它们从概念上讲都不是商誉。要素1反映的是被收购企业未确认净资产的利得,要素2只不过是指那些能够单独辨认但由于不能完全符合确认标准而未确认的无形资产。要素5和要素6与收购企业有关,它们从概念上讲也不是商誉,要素5是一个计量误差,要素6代表的则是收购企业的损失(在多支付的情况下)或利得(在少支付的情况 下)。只有要素3和要素4从概念上讲是商誉的一部分。要素3与被收购企业有关,它反映了被收购企业净资产的“超额组装价值”(excess assembled value)。它表示被收购企业事先存在的自创商誉或以前从企业兼并中收购的商誉。要素4与收购企业和被收购企业的结合有关,它反映了由合并而创造的“超 额组装价值”,即收购企业和被收购企业经营结合所产生的协同效应。FASB将要素3和要素4统称为“核心商誉”。
Example: Goodwill
W Corp. paid $600 million for the outstanding stock of P Corp. At the acquisition date, P reported the following Condensed balance sheet.
P Corp. - Condensed Balance Sheet
------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------- Book Value (millions)
Current assets --------------------$80
Plant and equipment, net ----------760
Goodwil -----------------------------30
Liabilities --------------------------400
Stocksholders' equity ---------------470
------------------------------------------------------
The fair value of the plant and equipment was $120 million more than recorded book value. The fair value of all other identifiable assets and liabilities were equal to their recorded book values. Calculate the amount of goodwill W should report on its consolidated balance sheet.
Answer:
------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------ Book value(millions)
Current assets---------------------$80
Plant and equipment, net----------880
Liabilities--------------------------(400)
Fair value of net assets-------------560
Purchase price---------------------600
Less: Fair value of net assets-------(560)
Acquisition goodwill----------------40
------------------------------------------------------
The plant and equipment was "written up" by $120 million to reflect fair value. The goodwill reported on P's balance sheet is an unidentifiable asset and is thus ignored in the calculation of W's goodwill.
商誉(goodwill)是指能在未来期间为企业经营带来超额利润的潜在经济价值，或一家企业预期的获利能力超过可辨认资产正常获利能力（如社会平均投资回报率）的资本化价值。商誉是企业整体价值的组成部分。在企业合并时，它是购买企业投资成本超过被并企业净资产公允价值的差额。
核心商誉论:美国财务会计准则委员会(FASB)于1999 年9月7日公布了一项征求意见稿,首次提出了“核心商誉”(core goodwill)的概念。
FASB认为,商誉可描述为由六个要素组成:(1)被收购企业净资产在收购日的公允市价大于其账面价值的差额。(2)被收购企业未确认的其他净资产的公允市价。(3)被收购企业存续业务“持续经营”(going-concern)构件的公允价值。(4)收购企业与被收购企业净资产和业务结合的预期协同效应的公允市价。(5)收购企业由于计量收购报价的错误而多计量的金额。尽管在所有现金交易中的收购价格不会出现计量错误,但如果是涉及到股票交换的交易,则很难说不会出现计量错误。(6)收购企业多支付或少支付的金额。
要素1和要素2都与被收购企业有关,它们从概念上讲都不是商誉。要素1反映的是被收购企业未确认净资产的利得,要素2只不过是指那些能够单独辨认但由于不能完全符合确认标准而未确认的无形资产。要素5和要素6与收购企业有关,它们从概念上讲也不是商誉,要素5是一个计量误差,要素6代表的则是收购企业的损失(在多支付的情况下)或利得(在少支付的情况 下)。只有要素3和要素4从概念上讲是商誉的一部分。要素3与被收购企业有关,它反映了被收购企业净资产的“超额组装价值”(excess assembled value)。它表示被收购企业事先存在的自创商誉或以前从企业兼并中收购的商誉。要素4与收购企业和被收购企业的结合有关,它反映了由合并而创造的“超 额组装价值”,即收购企业和被收购企业经营结合所产生的协同效应。FASB将要素3和要素4统称为“核心商誉”。
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Treasury Stock Method
B Company has 5000 shares outstanding all year. B had 2000 outstanding warrants all year, convertible into one share each at $20 per share. The year-end price of B stock was $40, and the average stock price was $30. What effect will these warrants have on the weighted average number of shares?
Answer:
If the warrants are exercised, the company will receive 2000*$20=$40000 and issue 2000 new shares. The treasury stock method assumes the company uses these funds to repurchase shares at the average market price of $30. The company would repurchase $40000/$30=1333 shares. Net shares issued would be 2000-1333=667 shares.
从此题可以理解期权(warrants/options)的部分成分。期权可以理解为期望和权力，即对期望值履行权力和义务。期权分为两种，一种为看涨期权，一种为看跌(看空)期权。通俗点讲，如果对期望值，即涨跌估计正确，购入的相应的期权就会盈利(也属于对冲基金的范畴)。从期权的角度看本题 $20<$30<$40，明显是属于购买了看跌期权，可实际情况却是股票升值。在此时，可以放弃对看跌行使权利，即放弃转换为股票，因为$20<$30，原本可以转换成2000股的期权，现在却只能转换为1333股。放弃转换只损失购买期权的成本，放弃转换的权力，从而将损失减少到最小。从期权角度来讲，此题是不理性的，分明知道履行权力会损失更大。但是本题的目的是为了介绍Treasury stock method，运用这种方法必须满足两种假设条件：1.从期权转换出来的资金或这证券必须用于回购本公司的股票。2.出售期权的股票价值必须遵守市场平均价格。如果从期权角度讲，理性地放弃回购公司股票的话，就不会满足假设条件1，也就没有介绍此方法的必要了。
Answer:
If the warrants are exercised, the company will receive 2000*$20=$40000 and issue 2000 new shares. The treasury stock method assumes the company uses these funds to repurchase shares at the average market price of $30. The company would repurchase $40000/$30=1333 shares. Net shares issued would be 2000-1333=667 shares.
从此题可以理解期权(warrants/options)的部分成分。期权可以理解为期望和权力，即对期望值履行权力和义务。期权分为两种，一种为看涨期权，一种为看跌(看空)期权。通俗点讲，如果对期望值，即涨跌估计正确，购入的相应的期权就会盈利(也属于对冲基金的范畴)。从期权的角度看本题 $20<$30<$40，明显是属于购买了看跌期权，可实际情况却是股票升值。在此时，可以放弃对看跌行使权利，即放弃转换为股票，因为$20<$30，原本可以转换成2000股的期权，现在却只能转换为1333股。放弃转换只损失购买期权的成本，放弃转换的权力，从而将损失减少到最小。从期权角度来讲，此题是不理性的，分明知道履行权力会损失更大。但是本题的目的是为了介绍Treasury stock method，运用这种方法必须满足两种假设条件：1.从期权转换出来的资金或这证券必须用于回购本公司的股票。2.出售期权的股票价值必须遵守市场平均价格。如果从期权角度讲，理性地放弃回购公司股票的话，就不会满足假设条件1，也就没有介绍此方法的必要了。
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Implications for Financial Analysis
Expense recognition requires a number of estimates. Since the estimates are involved, it is possible for firms to delay or accelerate the recognition of expenses. Delayed recognition increases current net income and is therefore more aggressive.
If a firm's bad debt expense has recently decreased, did the firm lower its expense estimate because its collection experience imporved, or was the expense decreased to manipulate net income?
If a firm's warrant expense is significant;y less than that of a peer firm, is the lower warranty expense a result of higher quality products, or is the firm's expense reognition more aggressive than that of the peer firm?
Firms disclose their accounting policies and significant estimates in the financial statement footnotes and in the management discussion and analysis (MD&A) section of the annual report.
If a firm's bad debt expense has recently decreased, did the firm lower its expense estimate because its collection experience imporved, or was the expense decreased to manipulate net income?
If a firm's warrant expense is significant;y less than that of a peer firm, is the lower warranty expense a result of higher quality products, or is the firm's expense reognition more aggressive than that of the peer firm?
Firms disclose their accounting policies and significant estimates in the financial statement footnotes and in the management discussion and analysis (MD&A) section of the annual report.
Friday, January 22, 2010
IFRS Vs. U.S. GAAP
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and U.S. GAAP generally agree in their overall framework and are working toward convergence. However, IFRS requires ussers to consider the framework in the absence of a specific standard, U.S. GAAP distinguishes between objectives for business and non-business entities, the IASB framework gives more emphasis to the importance of the accrual and going concern assumptions than the FASB framework does, the U.S. GAAP framework establishes a hierarchy of qualitative financial statement characteristics, and some differences still exist in how each defines, recognizes, and measures the individual elements of financial statements.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Securities and Exchange Commission Required Filings
Form s-1: Registration statement filed prior to the sale of new securities to the public.
Form 10-K: Required annual filing that includes information about the business and its management, audited financial staements and disclosures, and disclosures about legal matters involving the firm. Information required in Form 10-K is similar to that which a firm typically provides in its annual report to shareholders. However, a firm's annual report is not a substitute for the required 10-K filling. Equivalent SEC forms for foreign issuers in the U.S. markets are Form 40-F for Canadian companies and form 20-F for other foreign issuers.
Form 10-Q: U.S. firms are required to file this form quarterly, with updated financial statements (unlike Form 10-K, these statements fo not have to be audited) and disclosures about certain events such as significant legal proceedings or changes in accounting policy. Non-U.S. companies are typlically required to file the equivalent Form 6-K semiannually.
Form DEF-14A: When a company prepares a proxy statement for its shareholders prior to the annual meeting or othershareholder vote, it also files the statement with the SEC as Form DEF-14A.
Form 8-K: Companies must file this form to disclose material events including significant asset acquisitions and disposals, changes in management orcorporate governance, or matters related to its accountatns, its financial statements, or the mrkets in which its securities trade.
Form 144: A company can issue securities to certain qualified buyers without registering the securities with thte SEC but must notify the SEC that it intends to do so.
Form3, 4, and 5: they involve the beneficial ownership of securities by a company's officers and directors. Analysts can use these filings to learn about purchases and sales of company securities by corporate insides.
Form 10-K: Required annual filing that includes information about the business and its management, audited financial staements and disclosures, and disclosures about legal matters involving the firm. Information required in Form 10-K is similar to that which a firm typically provides in its annual report to shareholders. However, a firm's annual report is not a substitute for the required 10-K filling. Equivalent SEC forms for foreign issuers in the U.S. markets are Form 40-F for Canadian companies and form 20-F for other foreign issuers.
Form 10-Q: U.S. firms are required to file this form quarterly, with updated financial statements (unlike Form 10-K, these statements fo not have to be audited) and disclosures about certain events such as significant legal proceedings or changes in accounting policy. Non-U.S. companies are typlically required to file the equivalent Form 6-K semiannually.
Form DEF-14A: When a company prepares a proxy statement for its shareholders prior to the annual meeting or othershareholder vote, it also files the statement with the SEC as Form DEF-14A.
Form 8-K: Companies must file this form to disclose material events including significant asset acquisitions and disposals, changes in management orcorporate governance, or matters related to its accountatns, its financial statements, or the mrkets in which its securities trade.
Form 144: A company can issue securities to certain qualified buyers without registering the securities with thte SEC but must notify the SEC that it intends to do so.
Form3, 4, and 5: they involve the beneficial ownership of securities by a company's officers and directors. Analysts can use these filings to learn about purchases and sales of company securities by corporate insides.
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